Posted on 09/23/2008 11:48:52 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Is al-Qaeda preparing to disrupt American elections in November, or to influence them through attacks in October? Eli Lake reports on an uptick in communication seen by some in the intel community during the conventions, instructing cells to prepare for operational instructions. Rather than specific plans, though, the messages intended to alert members to watch for further instructions:
In the aftermath of two major terrorist attacks on Western targets, America’s counterterrorism community is warning that Al Qaeda may launch more overseas operations to influence the presidential elections in November.
Call it Osama bin Laden’s “October surprise.” In late August, during the weekend between the Democratic and Republican conventions, America’s military and intelligence agencies intercepted a series of messages from Al Qaeda’s leadership to intermediate members of the organization asking local cells to be prepared for imminent instructions.
An official familiar with the new intelligence said the message was picked up in multiple settings, from couriers to encrypted electronic communications to other means. “These are generic orders,” the source said — a distinction from the more specific intelligence about the location, time, and method of an attack. “It was, ‘Be on notice. We may call upon you soon.’ It was sent out on many channels.”
This would fit the AQ pattern. They recently conducted a successful attack in Pakistan that destroyed the Marriott Hotel, which may have targeted the newly-elected President Zardari. AQ likes to attack around elections, either before the actual vote as in the Madrid attack or afterwards, as when Gordon Brown first took office. They succeeded in killing Benazir Bhutto last year when she was widely expected to win a new term as Prime Minister.
They’ve tried to influence US elections in the past as well. The Kerry campaign believed that an Osama bin Laden videotape released in the final days of the 2004 election may have given George Bush enough of a boost to win re-election, but that seems hard to credit, especially since Kerry had spent most of the campaign blaming Bush for not capturing Osama. Analysts debate what effect an attack during the last days of this election would have, but it likely would prove a wash. Those inclined to think that Bush let bin Laden off the hook would already be voting for Barack Obama, and those who think Obama doesn’t know how to keep the country safe would already be voting for John McCain.
What could they do? Lake reports that counterterrorism experts don’t believe AQ has the strength to conduct a major attack inside the United States now, but they could attack American assets elsewhere in the world. They could try another attack on an American embassy after their failure in Yemen earlier this month. American military targets abound throughout the Middle East, but they have had enough trouble hitting those in war zones. Softer targets may be more attractive to them now — such as Marriott hotels or commercial ventures.
Previous concerns in 2004 and 2006 wound up being non-events, thanks to diligence in our counterterrorism forces and weakness in AQ. Hopefully, in 2008 the most we’ll see is another videotape of bin Laden or Ayman al-Zawahiri giving the radical Islamist slant on American elections.
A large-scale attack would guarantee a McCain victory. I doubt Bin Laden (if he’s still alive) and Al Zawahiri want that outcome.
The Islamo-Nazis still don’t get America. A terrorist attack will only drive votes to McCain. Their sense of this country has been seriously warped by the left-wing media.
Exactly. If Al-Qaeda want's to really disrupt the elections, they should come out and endorse McCain. Other than that, any noticeable actions on their behalf will only secure the GOP victory.
If the voters are made more aware of AQ than usual, they’ll be less likely to vote for AQ’s ally, not more. We’re Americans, not Europeans.
NY SUN.com: Washington - "SPIES WARN THAT AL QAEDA AIMS FOR OCTOBER SURPRISE Intercepted Messages Asking Local Cells To Be Prepared for Imminent Instructions" by Eli Lake (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "In the aftermath of two major terrorist attacks on Western targets, America's counterterrorism community is warning that Al Qaeda may launch more overseas operations to influence the presidential elections in November.") (September 22, 2008) (Read More...)
NEWSMAX.com: "AL-QAIDA THREATENS 'OCTOBER SURPRISE' ATTACK" (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "The attacks would likely be at American bases or allies abroad, since most experts think the group's ability to penetrate the U.S. homeland has deteriorated since 9-11. Still, al-Qaida is aggressively recruiting both North African and European operatives who may have a greater ability to enter the United States and blend in before launching an attack, according to U.S. intelligence officials.") (September 22, 2008, 11:49 am) (Read More...)
JAMESTOWN.org (TERRORISM FOCUS): "WATCHING THE WATCHERS: A JIHADI VIEW OF TERRORISM ANALYSIS WEBSITES" by Abdul Hameed Bakier (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Jihadis typically consider journalists and analysts specializing in terrorism to be infidels, calling on members to kill them at the first chance.") (September 18, 2008) (Read More...)
NEWS10.net: Floriston (Nevada County, CA - "EXPLOSIVE FERTILIZER, BLASTING CAPS STOLEN IN NEVADA COUNTY" Posted by C. Johnson George Warren (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives is offering a $10,000 reward for information leading to an arrest and conviction. Tips can be called in to (888) ATF-BOMB or the Nevada County Sheriff's Department at (530) 470-2400.") (September 17, 2008) (Read More...)
MEMRI IWMP.org - No. 2052: "A JIHADIST FORUM PUBLISHES PROPAGANDA FABRICATION ABOUT A PURPORTED AL-QAEDA ATTACK ON THE U.S. AND EUROPE" (SNIPPET: "It should be noted that although Al-Hesbah often posts authentic statements by Al-Qaeda operatives, MEMRI asserts that this entire interview seems to be fabrications intended for propaganda purposes on the anniversary of September 11.") (September 15, 2008) (Read More...)
TELEGRAPH.co.uk: "RADICAL MUSLIMS WARN OF ANOTHER 9/11" (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Mr Islam warned that unless British and American troops were withdrawn from "Muslim lands: they would be to blame for the consequences, saying the West would "never achieve security until our own lands achieve security". "Wake up. Withdraw. Listen to the warnings. Muslims will stand side to side, not just al Qaeda. The actions of the British and Americans have given prominence to al Qaeda. All of us have a part to play in stopping the violence or the next 9/11 will take place in Britain, the next 7/7 could take place locally," he added.") (Last updated September 13, 2008, 12:42 am BST) (Read More...)
UPI.com: London - "RADICAL MUSLIMS MEET ON 9/11 ANNIVERSARY" (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Saiful Islam, leader of a group called Salafi Youth for Islamic Propagation, told the group Britain and the United States "will not achieve security until our lands achieve security."") (Published September 13, 2008, 1:58 pm) (Read More...)
OFFICER.com (10News.com): San Diego - "OFFICIALS: VIOLENCE AGAINST BORDER AGENTS ON RISE" (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "The U.S. Border Patrol has recorded close to 100 more assaults against agents so far in 2008 than last year.") (Updated: September 11, 2008, 03:19 pm EDT) (Read More...)
TERRORISM-INFO.org.il - INTELLIGENCE AND TERRORISM INFORMATION CENTER (IICC): "Communications and terrorism: Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV channel has started broadcasting via an Indonesian satellite, after being taken off a Thai satellite. The Indonesian satellite covers East Asia, China, and Australia. Indonesia is a Muslim country, making it more difficult for the international community to fight the incitement aired by Hezbollah." (September 8, 2008) (Read More...)
DHS.gov - Press Release: "HOMELAND SECURITY ADVISORY SYSTEM Current Threat Level" (PRESS RELEASE SNIPPET: "The United States government's national threat level is Elevated, or Yellow. The U.S. threat level is High, or Orange, for all domestic and international flights.") (September 1, 2008) (Read More...)
FOX NEWS.com (AP): El Paso, Texas - "POLICE: MEXICAN CARTELS GIVE OK TO HIT U.S. TARGETS" (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Security is being heightened along the southern U.S. border because of a threat that warring Mexican cartels may send hit men into the United States, authorities said Monday.") (August 25, 2008) (Read More...)
YNET NEWS.com: "INTELLIGENCE BODIES WARN THREAT FROM GLOBAL JIHAD 'SUBSTANTIAL'" by Ron Sofer (SNIPPET: "Representatives from IDF Intelligence, Shin Bet, Mossad warn government global terror groups like al-Qaeda, which use civilian information technology to enlist, mobilizing operatives") (Published July 23, 2008, 19:23) (Read More...)
MID-DAY.com: "ALLEGED TERRORIST CONFIRMS LIQUID BOMB THEORY" by J. Dey (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "The confession of alleged terrorist Raziuddin Naser has confirmed that jehadis are planning to launch large-scale chemical strikes across the country. Naser was nabbed in Goa early this year when he was trying to hijack a tanker containing 20,000 litres of hydrogen peroxide. Documents available with MiD DAY indicate that Naser had undergone 45 days of extensive training in the use of destructive chemicals at Dera Ismail Khan in Karachi, Pakistan in November last year. Forty other trainees also underwent similar training in Pakistan." ARTICLE SNIPPET: "The police have launched a massive manhunt for the 40 jehadis.") (August 21, 2008) (Read More...)
SEATTLE TIMES.com (AP): Centralia - "PROPANE TANK BOMB FOUND NEAR CENTRALIA POWER PLANT" (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "The State Patrol is helping the Lewis County sheriff's office investigate a bomb found near the TransAlta power plant at Centralia. The sheriff's office says it's a 5-gallon propane tank with a small amount of black powder and a blasting cap.") (Page updated August 21, 2008, 4:22 pm) (Read More...)
THE MEMRI BLOG.org ("Source: IRNA, Iran, August 20, 2008"): "AHMADINEJAD: ZIONIST REGIME TO BE DISMANTLED SOON" (SNIPPET: "Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad today said, "The era of the Zionists has come to its end, and I recommend that the leaders of Europe and the U.S. not submit to the Zionists. If they help them, they will be harmed. Also among the leaders of Europe and the U.S. there is serious doubt regarding the existence of Zionism, and soon we will witness the disappearance of this corrupt germ from the region."") (Posted August 20, 2008) (Read More...)
JIHAD WATCH.org (CBS5.com): "SAVAGE DROPS LAWSUIT AGAINST CAIR AFTER DEATH THREATS" (SNIPPET: "The court filing gave no details, but in a telephone interview Horowitz said the factors included an alleged phone threat to Savage. Horowitz said he wasn't accusing the Islamic group of making threats...") (August 15, 2008) (Read More...)
ADNKRONOS.com (AKI): Berlin - "GERMANY: SECURITY SERVICES WARN OF POSSIBLE HEZBOLLAH ATTACKS" (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Militant Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah could launch damaging terrorist attacks in Germany and elsewhere in Europe, according to a report by the country's security services.") (August 11, 2008) (Read More...)
JAMESTOWN.org - TERRORISM FOCUS: "JIHADIS REACT OT INDICTMENT OF SUDAN'S OMAR AL-BASHIR" by Abdul Hameed Bakier (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Reacting to the International Criminal Court's (ICC) indictment of Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir, several jihadi internet forums discussed Sudan's situation in response to a posting entitled "Goodbye Omar al-Bashir and Wake Up Sleeping Cells" (al-ekhlaas.net July, 20). Other assessments of Omar al-Bashir's reign in Sudan were found at hanein.info (July 24).") (August 12, 2008) (Read More...)
LAFD - blog: "TERRORISM FORCES US TO MAKE A CHOICE..." (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Terrorism forces us to make a choice. We can be afraid... or we can be ready.") -Submitted by Brian Humphrey, Spokesman, Los Angeles Fire Department (September 8, 2008) (Read More...)
WASHINGTON TIMES.com: "BORDER PATROL AGENT HELD AT GUNPOINT Officers fear Mexican military encounters will turn violent" by Jerry Seper (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "A U.S. Border Patrol agent was held at gunpoint Sunday night by members of the Mexican military who had crossed the border into Arizona, but the soldiers returned to Mexico without incident when backup agents responded to assist.") August 6, 2008) (Read More...)
I think Americans are too focused on military or terrorist attacks and they don't quite understand that they are at war with Islam in it's political form.
The attacks are not all with bombs and bullets...
That the United States would elect a Muslim as the President of the United States is a victory even bigger than 9/11 for Islam's extremists.
oh... ok I know there are many of you who are going to say that Barack Obama is a committed Christian (wink wink nudge nudge) - it's just that Obama's "church" is more interested in attacking the White Devil than God.
The Democrats are a greater threat to the United States than Al Qaeda.
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