The reason why they chose 'Buratha' (Iran behind bombings to affect the political process)

Iraq the Model ^ | April 7 2006 | Omar

[jmc1969]

A new massacre has struck Baghdad when three suicide bombers attacked the Buratha mosque in Baghdad this afternoon. "More than 70 people were killed and more than 150 were injured" a doctor from Baghdad's medical city told me in a phone call.

A closer look at the targeted mosque makes me think that the ramifications of this massacre can possibly be much worse than the immediate death and pain this terror attack brought, the Buratha mosque is not an ordinary mosque, it has a special religious value for Shia Iraqis as it's thought to be one of the places where Imam Ali stayed and prayed.

But that's not the most important thing because this mosque is of considerable political significance, the preacher in this mosque is Jalal Addin al-Sagheer, a cleric from the SCIRI who was the first SCIRI member to publicly urge Ibrahim al-Jafari to withdraw his nomination for office.

This mosque is one of the headquarters of the SCIRI and its clerical wing in Baghdad, even that Abdul Aziz al-Hakeem's son Ammar al-Hakkem preaches occasionally in this mosque when sheikh Jalal is not available.

A military confrontation between the Sadr militias and the American (and possibly Iraqi) army is imminent and it's the Sadrists themselves who are pushing in this direction and preparing their forces for a battle they want to have to disrupt the political process and drag Iraq into an irreversible state of civil war.

There are powers in the region that want this to happen, primarily Syria and Iran but I think they realized that a Sadr Vs. US battle is not enough and can only result in a big defeat for Sadr without reaching their desired objective of ruining Iraq.

So, it is logical to think that Iran and Syria would try to drag as many Iraqi parties as possible into this battle and the first candidate they would choose would be the SCIRI, the powerful Shia party that is not getting along well with Sadr and has recently sided with the Kurds, Sunni and secular powers in calling for Jafari to step away and even considering forming a united political front with them.

Another possible theory is that this attack is a warning message to the SCIRI that they must stay friends with Sadr, support Jafari and abort any plan to form a unity government with the Kurds, Sunni and secular parties.

If either theory is correct, the attack is aimed at stopping Iraq from having a government and prolonging the instability for as long as possible.

Let's also take a look at the planning for the attack that is very well studied too, the suicide bombers did not start striking during Friday prayers when the place is usually heavily guarded and security personnel are at high alert but the first strike came more than 15 minutes later when an attack is less expected and after guards felt they accomplished their mission in protecting the worshippers during the main ceremony to be followed by the other two bombings that took advantage of the state of panic created by the first bombing. This in addition to the use of disguise has of course made the breach easier to make.

The attack was no doubt carried out by al-Qaeda but the target was chosen from the powers across the borders.

[jmc1969]

from http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/

This is a clear message from Sadr and Iran to the SCIRI that if they don't support Jaafari for PM they will be killed. Those that have said al-Qaeda in Iraq have become a handmaiden of Iran are correct.

[nuconvert]

pong

[Allegra]

I'll try to resist the urge to feel smug. ;-)

[Zeppelin]

More evidence that Iran is scared sh*tless of a strong, free Iraq. I think part of the reason Iran got involved was to retaliate Saddam's invasion of Iran in the 80s, misdirected as it is. But now that it's common knowledge that Iran is behind the insurgency, they should be even more afraid of a strong, free Iraq.

The Middle East has alot of growing up to do. There won't be peace as long as one country bombs another country's innocent civilians just to keep them in a state of turmoil and fear.

[jmc1969]

It is clear that al-Qaeda did do the bombings as I said before Shia just don't do suicide bombings. That said it is also clear Iran and al-Qaeda are working together and Iran wanted al-Qaeda to send a message to the SCIRI for them.

[jmc1969]

Ping

[Allegra]

I never said the Shia do suicide bombings. What I said was I suspected Sadr and his thugs were behind this as they have been other similar but smaller attacks in Baghdad over the past few weeks.

And Sadr is in bed with Iran and has been all along.

I stand by what I said and so do most of the Iraqis I know here.

But, what do we know?

[jmc1969]

These aren't mutally exclusive things we are saying. Its clear that Sadr, al-Qaeda, and Iran all have the same vision for Iraq (a destabilized wasteland). And, I have said it is quite possible and even likely that Sadr's boys are working with al-Qaeda to get these guys into position in order to attack targets that will send a message politically.

But, I remember the last time a large number of people here and Bill Roggio blamed Sadr for the suicide attacks in Sadr city as a ruse to discredit the ISF and make himself look like the victim. The problem with the idea that Sadr's boys were the ones that blew themselves up was the fact children were using the head of one of the suicide bombers as a kick ball after the attack and the head was that from an African.

Clearly it is not Sadr's boys blowing themselves up, but that said the real question one should be asking is how an African got though Madhi Army check points in Sadr city.

That is where the focus should be on. If Sadr is helping the Waahibis get certain places in Iraq to cause mass casulity attacks that will help Sadr and Iran.

[Southack]

"I suspected Sadr and his thugs were behind this as they have been other similar but smaller attacks in Baghdad over the past few weeks. And Sadr is in bed with Iran and has been all along."

Sadr has a militia, but no great role in the new Iraqi government. Now he wants such a role.

But like the man with only a hammer, everything looks like a nail to Sadr. I.E. he only knows to use his militia to further his aims.

It's even possible (though much less likely) that Iran approves of this sort of thing.

I doubt that this is a very successful process for Sadr, though. If he had the votes for Jafari, then he wouldn't have needed this attack...and without killing the local imam in this attack, he's unlikely to gain any new support, either.

As for "civil war" or other such possibilities, Iraq's militias and Mullahs are generally tied to a particular mosque. Thus, we know where they live.

This is an entirely different scenario than what we dealt with when Al Qaeda was itself the bigger threat in Iraq. We didn't know where to find Zarqawi. Not so for Sadr.

So we have different dynamics going on now.

Of course, the communist news media will focus on the violence and the negatives...neglecting to note the different dynamics (probably wouldn't grasp such distinctions even if they cared, anyway).

But dealing with a Mullah and Militia tied to a Mosque (a 3M problem) is a very different thing from that of dealing with a foreign financed terror organization that has no visible headquarters/leadership.

And perhaps the mullahs/militias are acting up *because* Al Qaeda has withered so much in Iraq. Al Qaeda's time has mostly passed now in Iraq. The Mullahs are going to give it a go next, but they have different goals than Al Qaeda.

This is a less dangerous game now. It is different. Beware the newscasters who tell you more of the same.

It's not the same now. The dynamics have changed.

[onyx]

The dynamics have changed. I was heartened to hear or read here, that Iraqi's are thinking of themselves as Iraqis first, and Shiite, Sunni or Kurd, second.


Thanks for the ping, Southack.

[Marine_Uncle]

Come on. Kiss and make up. Both your arguments are based on rational thinking as well as supported by many things a group of us agree upon in principle.
At least in my mind one cannot expect to be in accord with everyone on every possible combination.
That being said, you both contribute worthwhile information on the issues in Iraq. So don't throw rotten eggs at me.
I am sure what is foremost in our minds is when the Iraqi forces with US backup is going to take action against Sadr. We saw perhaps the first move in that direction, when they went into the neighborhood of Ur and took out those Sadrist hold up in the mosque.
Surely all the plans are in place. But Jaafari is still the PM. So heaven knows how much his DM/IM, are permitted to sign off on.
This whole deal continues to play out like a bad dream.

[MikefromOhio]

Its clear that Sadr, al-Qaeda, and Iran all have the same vision for Iraq (a destabilized wasteland).

No it isn't. AQ and Iran have simliar ideas, but Sadr wants to be the next Saddam or Kohimeni.....

[jmc1969]

So does Zarqawi, but he is smart enough to do that he won't get that so he wants the next best thing a fractured militant Iraq. If Sadr can't get it all he will go for the Zarqawi method of a destabilized Iraq that he can carve a part off for himself.

[jmc1969]

I am not disagreeing with her, I think Sadr is in part behind it.

[MikefromOhio]

Zarqawi is AQ. He knows he won't EVER be a leader of anything other than his roving bands of terrorists.

He wants to be a kingmaker, not the king.

[Marine_Uncle]

" This is a less dangerous game now. It is different. Beware the newscasters who tell you more of the same. It's not the same now. The dynamics have changed."
AGREE. And one can envision particular type SOF/SOCOM/ mixed with Iraqi forces or without, performing specific actions that would fit into this proposed 3M model. Frag orders could change on the fly, flexibility, as conditions rapidly change.
And I can see where the US could actually stay quite neutral and just let the Iraqi's do the fighting. Of course if whole neighborhoods such as Sadr City where involved, I an US airsupport being required.
Who knows we many soon be reading about T72's pumping rounds into both Sunni and Shiite mosques.

[MikefromOhio]

Sadr has already tried that two times and gotten his arse kicked two times.

His own men fragged him the second time. Don't overestimate his pull because he has some hardcore followers. He doesn't resonate with most Iraqis.

[jmc1969]

Back in Fallujah when he had a city and thousands of fighters and his own Shira council he did think he could be king, that changed after the second battle of Fallujah.

Our mistake with Sadr was never kicking him and the Madhi Army out of Sadr city for good.

[MikefromOhio]

Our mistake with Sadr was never kicking him and the Madhi Army out of Sadr city for good.

Sadr isn't based in Sadr city. He's based further south. Sadr city is a suburb in Baghdad named after his father (whom he had killed).

Secondly, after the FIRST Battle of Fallujah, Z-man has effectively been on the run since. We've nearly gotten him at least 5 times now and it's thought we wounded him at the First Battle of Fallujah as well as in another engagement in Baghdad.

He's not stupid. Otherwise we would have gotten him by now. He knows that he can force things to happen, but he can't make them happen on his own.

[jmc1969]

Secondly, after the FIRST Battle of Fallujah, Z-man has effectively been on the run since.

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Zarqawi was living in the Jolan District of Fallujah beheading people after the first battle of Fallujah. Those beheading stopped when they lost their base in the city.