Gallup poll news not all bad. Advantage is still Bush.

[StJacques]

If you have been spending too much time reading poll numbers after the recent debate in Miami, watching the media launch a full-court press against the American voter to force a turnover in his or her perception of the presidential candidates, then take heart, the news is not all bad. Last night I posted a critique of the Newsweek poll, which I still believe should be considered "advantage Bush," if one goes to the "internal numbers" to get to the truth, since it is likely that Pacific coast voters were over-represented in the polling sample. As of today, several important polls of "Likely Voters" give President Bush the edge in varying amounts, including Rasmussen, ABC News/Washington Post, Pew Research, and even Zogby, though only by one point.

And then there is the new Gallup poll, whose overall numbers have the race tied at 49% each for Bush and Kerry. Since many of us remember that Gallup had our guy up by fourteen a few weeks back, this has been a most disappointing result. But I want to argue that the news from Gallup is not as bad as many might think, even though the race obviously is tighter than it has been in recent weeks. There are internal numbers in the Gallup poll that suggest Bush's position is still stronger than Kerry's and, if either side had to choose one set of numbers over the other outside of the current context of media spin, and Gallup has pointedly written in its report of the current numbers that ". . . in the latest poll, conducted Oct. 1-3, this perception of Kerry's stronger debate performance has expanded, no doubt fueled by post-debate media discussion and spin. . . .", they likely would choose Bush's numbers. In fact, the same Gallup poll offers the following analytical comment: "Despite these significant changes in the basic structure of the presidential race, the poll suggests that President Bush continues to have significant advantages over Kerry on several key dimensions . . .".

You can "pop up" Gallup's latest poll results and their report at the following link:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/default.aspx?ci=13240

Before we get to the numbers that give us hope here is the bad news. This is the second poll in a row that Gallup has conducted in which Kerry's position has improved. And there is also a decline in Bush's approval rating which Gallup now has at 50%. Kerry is now rated as best suited to handle the economy at 51 - 44, which is almost an exact reversal from the previous poll's numbers that gave Bush the edge at 51 - 45 and suggests that either the polling sample contained more Kerry supporters than usual or that voter's impressions of which candidate is best suited to handle the economy is affected to a significant degree by current media impressions. But Gallup also suggests that Kerry may have reaped all the benefits he can from the "media bounce," (my term), since most Americans now expect Kerry to win the next debate by a 48 - 41 margin, which puts the "expectations" game ball in our court and will limit, if not exhaust, any further gains Kerry can hope to reap from future debates.

Before discussing the details, here are some of the numbers that should give hope to all of us:

Some Numbers from the Gallup Poll

Category	Bush	Kerry
Support Among Likely Voters	49	49
Support Among Registered Voters	49	47
Best Handle Situation in Iraq	51	44
Best Handle Terrorism	56	39

The first number that should leap out at everyone is that Bush still retains a lead among registered voters. This is the second consecutive Gallup poll in which Bush retains this advantage which, when compared against his overall "tie" with Kerry in the "horse race," suggests that enthusiasm among Bush supporters has been dimmed somewhat by the media discussion of the recent debate.

And the big issue of this election, which candidate is best suited to handle the situation in Iraq and the War on Terror is still clearly in Bush's favor. So even though Kerry has made some points with his debating style and presentation of himself to voters, he has not won the argument on how to win the War in Iraq and fight the War on Terror. This may be a bigger advantage for Bush than one may realize at first glance.

If you return to the moment in this presidential contest when the advantage tipped to President Bush, which was the convention and its immediate aftermath, you can see that the critical change which accounted for the Bush advantage was that American voters came to favor Bush's policies on the war in Iraq and War on Terror. The evidence is fairly clear when looking at the history of these numbers in the Gallup poll:

Gallup Poll Numbers on Candidate Capabilities to Handle Situation in Iraq & Terrorism

Situation in Iraq

Terrorism

Poll Date	Bush	Kerry
Oct 1 - 3	51	44
Sept 24 - 26	55	41
Sept 3 - 5	54	41
Aug 23 - 25	49	43
July 30 - Aug 1	47	48

Poll Date	Bush	Kerry
Oct 1 - 3	56	39
Sept 24 - 26	61	34
Sept 3 - 5	61	34
Aug 23 - 25	54	37
July 30 - Aug 1	54	41

Even though Kerry began to lose some standing on the numbers as August wore on, the real change occurred after the Republican convention, which altered the character of this race. And the most recent set of numbers, though showing some reduction in the President's overall advantage, are still above where they were when the Democratic convention ended, which enables us to conclude that, even though Kerry may have scored points with voters for his debate performance and competence in foreign policy, President Bush has still won the substance of the argument. And if Bush can just energize his base a little, remember the registered voters numbers above, popular recognition of his advantage will be reassured. And you can expect Kerry to continue to trot out his new-found "hawk" credentials to try to improve his numbers on Iraq and the War on Terror. That will create problems for his base, most of whom - 54% in a poll conducted not too long ago - are outright opponents of the war in Iraq.

The advantage in this race is still with President Bush. We all should be more enthusiastic and rev up the "good guys" to turn around popular discussion of the race.