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The Guild 8-29-2003 Say Goodbye to Summer

Posted on 08/29/2003 7:52:25 AM PDT by Hillary's Lovely Legs

"I can tell you my love for you will still be strong After the boys of summer have gone." -- Don Henley, "The Boys of Summer"

As Labor Day weekend approaches, the 2004 presidential campaign is taking shape. The days are getting shorter and the fortunes of some Democratic candidates who were hot in the spring may be beginning to fade. Some of the so-called top-tier Democratic candidates seeking to challenge Bush have failed to catch fire with voters in the important early primary states. Meanwhile, polls suggest that President Bush is vulnerable. News reports are for the first time portraying him as being on the defensive on foreign policy -- an issue that had been his strength.

Recent polls by Zogby International and Newsweek show that President Bush's job approval rating slipped over the summer, pegging him at just above 50 percent. At the same time, the public's anxiety over the administration's handling of Iraq -- from the number of soldiers being killed to the impact on the federal budget -- continues to rise.

The Zogby poll also points to another troubling sign for the president. Fewer people are saying the president deserves to be re-elected (45 percent) than are saying he does not deserve to be reelected (48 percent). That's a reversal from two and half months ago when the numbers lined up 49 percent to 38 percent in the president's favor. The numbers don't show a slippage among those who support the president as much as they show an increase in the number of people who don't. For those inclined to believe in the vast left-wing conspiracy, even a recent Fox News/Opinion Dynamic poll put the president's "deserves to be reelected" number at 47 percent.

"The president's poll numbers are a reflection of some other numbers: three million jobs lost, a deficit of a half a trillion dollars in one year," said Democratic National Committee spokesman Tony Welch. "And even some Republicans are saying the president has led us into disaster in Iraq. No matter what they say, the polls are an indication and reflection of something real."

Months ago, Bush pollster Matthew Dowd attempted to pre-empt "the sky-is-falling" scenarios. Dowd's analysis included some historical perspective: In 1983, President Reagan trailed possible opponents John Glenn and Walter Mondale in various polls. Reagan went on to beat Mondale in a landslide, winning 49 states. In 1987, President Bush trailed in generic ballot polls, but went on to handily defeat Michael Dukakis the next year. In late 1995 and early 1996, Wall Street Journal and Gallup polls had Bob Dole with a slight lead over Bill Clinton, who went on to defeat Dole in the November election.

It would be ridiculous to predict Bush's demise a year before the votes are cast. But polls do give a reliable snapshot in time of current opinions. That snapshots suggest the president is not as invincible as he once seemed.

The Dem Side

For however much Bush's poll numbers may be lagging, he still compares favorably when stacked up against any of the Democrats, according to recent polls. Some of the so-called top-tier Democrats appear to be fading. Sens. John Edwards (N.C.) and Bob Graham (Fla.) are polling at about 2 percent in New Hampshire -- one point ahead of retired Gen. Wesley Clark, who hasn't announced his intentions, formed an organization, or raised one cent for a campaign. Is it too early to panic? Or should these two big names be thinking about returning their attention to their day jobs in the Senate? Those questions will be asked with ever-greater frequency after Labor Day.

There's no question what the Orlando Sentinel thinks Graham should do. It ran an editorial last week with the headline "Bow Out Bob Graham." Noting that Graham was running neck-and-neck with the Rev. Al Sharpton in Iowa, the paper suggested that "the longer [Graham] continues his long-shot bid for president, the more he risks diminishing his effectiveness as a senator."

The situation in North Carolina is even more interesting, given the competitiveness of the seat even if Edwards decides to stay in the Senate race. Some in the state's Democratic establishment have asked Edwards to declare his intentions by Labor Day. That's not going to happen. George Stephanopoulos reported on Sunday that Edwards aides had predicted in private conversations with him that their candidate would pull out of the Senate race by Sept. 16, the date set for his official presidential announcement. But that may not happen either.

Edwards is cognizant of his problem in the polls, but he and those around him believe it is a problem of name recognition rather than message. They still believe he is the most capable of the Democratic candidates. Campaign aides believe it's going to be between six and eight weeks before they'll see the results of Edwards's campaign ads and "Real Solutions Express" bus tour.

Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) doesn't have to worry about running for reelection because his Senate term doesn't end until 2009. But he does have to worry about slipping poll numbers in New Hampshire. One theory about the reason Kerry plans to make his official entry into the presidential race in front of the USS Yorktown aircraft carrier in Charleston, S.C., is that with former Vermont governor Howard Dean moving ahead in New Hampshire, Kerry is looking to broaden his horizons in the key southern state. Someone from a rival campaign referred to the Kerry announcement as a "gimmickry."

Asked to respond, Kerry spokesman Robert Gibbs quipped: "What criticism? Oh, you mean like going to South Carolina? This just in: there's a primary on Feb. 3! Yes folks, we have adjusted strategy and we will compete in South Carolina." Gibbs also notes that Dean was the only one of the "major" candidates to already be running hundreds of thousands in television ads in New Hampshire and Iowa. (When reminded that Edwards was also running ads, Gibbs chose not to amend his comments.)

The approach of Labor Day also brings nearer the decision by former Gen. Wesley Clark about whether he will run. But as I said in my live discussion last week, Clark's candidacy is looking less and less likely to become a reality. Despite the passion he engenders among some people, he's still largely unknown to the vast majority of the American public. To suggest that a guy who's never run for anything can jump in and build the organization and name recognition, and raise the kind of money he would need to compete and win the nomination this late in the game seems a stretch.

More Gimmicks

Two other candidates are struggling to be competitive in key states by introducing some new "gimmickry" to their serious campaigns. Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt, who is running second to Dean in Iowa polls, has just announced "The Great Gephardt Iowa Pie Challenge," in which he asks voters of the great first caucus state to help him find the tastiest pie in the land.

"Iowa has a long tradition of bringing great pies to our nation," a Gephardt statement reads. "From Stone's 'mile high pie' in Marshalltown to the apple pie at Cronk's Café in Denison, I've only begun to nibble away at the best of what Iowa has to offer - now I need your help in finding all of the great pies in this great state."

I'm not sure this blatant pandering to the sweet-tooth constituency furthers his ambition to be seen as the candidate with the biggest boldest ideas (see Gephardt health care plan), but, hey, it can't hurt.

Lieberman, who is polling in single digits in New Hampshire, announced this week its "See Joe's Car & Go See Nomar!" contest. Voters in New Hampshire who spot one of the campaign's "JoeMobiles" can become eligible for tickets drawing to go see Nomar Garciaparra and the Boston Red Sox by calling or e-mailing the campaign and saying, "I saw the car and love Nomar."

But the bigger question, come the Jan. 27 New Hampshire primary:

Will they love Joe?


TOPICS: The Guild
KEYWORDS: theguild
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To: *The GUILD
Oh deliver me from this. Kerry is opening is announcement with a prayer from the (black) gunner who was positioned above him in Nam. How opprotunistic can you get?
141 posted on 09/02/2003 7:21:24 AM PDT by Iowa Granny
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To: Iowa Granny
Poor lurch - he's just as electable as am I.

Nitwit.

...although Mrs.lurch would be a hoot in the White House.

Cheers up there.
142 posted on 09/02/2003 7:42:30 AM PDT by lodwick
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To: Iowa Granny
Huh! I just learned that the Iowa Presidential watch is headquartered in Webster City - one of the stops we'll be making this fall.

They need to get on-line donating capabilities, imo.
143 posted on 09/02/2003 7:46:17 AM PDT by lodwick
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To: lodwick
send them a note via their "contact us" icon. The suggestion for on line donation capabilities is a good one, and will be accepted better coming from a Texan than from me. I'm too bossy, ya know.

144 posted on 09/02/2003 7:49:27 AM PDT by Iowa Granny
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To: Iowa Granny
Done, Boss.
145 posted on 09/02/2003 8:14:52 AM PDT by lodwick
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To: *The GUILD; daisyscarlett
R.A.Wilson announces his candidacy for Govenor

My party, the Guns and Dope Party, invites extremists of both right and left to unite behind our shared goals of:

Get those pointy-headed Washington bureaucrats off our backs and off our fronts too!

Guns for everybody who wants them; no guns for those who don't want them.

Drugs for everybody who wants them; no drugs for those who don't want them.

Freedom of choice, free love,free speech, free Internet and free beer.

California secession -- Keep the anti-gun and ant-dope fanatics on the Eastern side of the Rockies.

Lotsa wild parties every night by gun-toting dopers.

Animal protection -- Support your right to keep and arm bears.

More position papers will follow; we know at least 69 good positions.

Learn more here.


146 posted on 09/02/2003 8:26:34 AM PDT by lodwick
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To: lodwick
Where do you get this stuff?

Wish you were here. Much to do today, and you obviously have time on your hands. ;>) I could use some help. I'm only here to rest my back a bit.
147 posted on 09/02/2003 9:13:00 AM PDT by Iowa Granny
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To: Iowa Granny
Heheh...I have GOT to get busy and stop playing.

Ripping off all the baseboards, caulking things up, go get new baseboard, prime, paint and try to have ready for the trim carpenters later this week.

Prepare to go to GA this weekend...give me a break.

Trust me, I wish I were anywhere but here.
148 posted on 09/02/2003 9:19:28 AM PDT by lodwick
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To: Iowa Granny
A Kerry question:

Isn't it in the Dem Bible that Bush's tax cuts only helped the rich?

Then how can Kerry now claim that he wants to KEEP those cuts that helped the middle class...ie, he wants to cancel tax cuts only for the rich?!

I wonder if there's a Kerry quote out there claiming the tax cuts only helped the rich.
149 posted on 09/02/2003 9:21:08 AM PDT by Timeout
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To: Timeout
Sorry. I am not a student of Kerry. All I know about him is he looks French and has a rich, goofy wife.

If you find the answer to your question, please post it here.
150 posted on 09/02/2003 9:57:15 AM PDT by Iowa Granny
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To: Iowa Granny; Timeout
Still screwing off here...

Q: How will you balance the budget?

A: The first thing we have to do is to roll back the Bush tax cut for the wealthiest Americans. Fiscally responsible tax cuts for working families can grow the economy, but there is no excuse for special tax cuts for the rich. Then we can create jobs and invest in our people. With the right economic plan, we can turn our economy around, invest in people and reduce deficits all at the same time.

Source: MoveOn.org interview Jun 17, 2003
151 posted on 09/02/2003 10:16:11 AM PDT by lodwick
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To: lodwick
I have never heard of this party. Is this one of dos dem dare satires that I sometimes think are true? hee hee....

The French looking candidate (John F.Kerry) is just an around guy...why he drinks beer and carries his own luggage....And get this-his lovely wife passes out homemade brownies on the campaign plane too. Did she bake them or did Alice B. Toklas bake them...Maybe JF Kerry just had not had a homemade anything in a long time cause that is what he is doing in the photo, lurging over everyone to grab a brownie!!!

Democratic U.S. presidential hopeful Senator John Kerry (R) reaches after his wife Teresa Heinz Kerry (L) to get a brownie as she passes out homemade brownies to members of the media aboard his campaign plane September 1, 2003 enroute from Washington, D.C. to Charleston, South Carolina. Kerry will officially announce his campaign for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination in South Carolina on September 2. REUTERS/Jim Bourg Email Photo

152 posted on 09/02/2003 10:31:16 AM PDT by daisyscarlett (A clean house is a sign of a broken computer...)
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To: daisyscarlett
"Homemade" brownies made by one of her full-time cooks, no doubt. And is John Forbesgerald Kerry drinking an imported beer? For shame, John - thousands of American beer makers - union members all - say shame!
153 posted on 09/02/2003 10:33:50 AM PDT by mountaineer
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To: mountaineer
I can't see the beer label enough to read it but I sure hope he left it on the plane. Iced tea is what most S. Carolinians admit to as their favorite beverage.

And what's with Mrs. K.? I have seen her look a lot better with well coifed hair and nice looking pantsuits. Kinda drab looking...again, black pantsuits do better in the Northeast...not the deep South.

Change of subject: Keep a look see for reports of Chelsea going to GASP work. She is due to start her Manhatten dream job this month...Alas, poor Ian will return to Oxford..guess he is actually going to try to get a degree from Oxford. Chels' online bio now states: Completed two years at Oxford. Note the absence of the word degree or graduation.

154 posted on 09/02/2003 10:50:06 AM PDT by daisyscarlett (a)
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To: daisyscarlett
Chels' online bio now states: Completed two years at Oxford. Note the absence of the word degree or graduation.

Ha! I am shocked. Shocked, I tell you.

155 posted on 09/02/2003 10:56:45 AM PDT by mountaineer
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To: mountaineer
From Issues2000.org's site:

Our mission is to provide non-partisan information for voters in the Presidential election, so that votes can be based on issues rather than on personalities and popularity.
We get our information daily from newspapers, speeches, press releases, and the Internet -- it is a labor-intensive process that requires countless volunteer hours.

We rely on your support to keep this web site in operation.
Please help us with a donation.

We are not-for-profit and all our net income after November 2000 will be donated to the League of Women Voters to support future issues-based candidate debates. Our advertisers partially offset our cash expenses, but we need donations from YOU to keep our volunteers clothed and fed.


Send your donations to:
Issues2000 headquarters, 1770 Massachusetts Ave. #630, Cambridge MA 02140.
$10 donations will be replied to with an Issues2000 summary pamphlet.
$35 donations will be replied to with a printed & bound summary booklet.
$70 donations will be replied to with a full Issues2000 candidate booklet.
$100 donations will entitle you to inclusion on our 'Supporters' list.

Beers and brownies? Bleeeeeeeeeeh

Trim as is John, I seriously doubt he's a chocoholic.
156 posted on 09/02/2003 10:56:56 AM PDT by lodwick
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To: lodwick
We are not-for-profit and all our net income after November 2000 will be donated to the League of Women Voters

Well, this is a Dead Giveaway as to WHAT they're really all about

The League can claim they are non partisan until the cows come home. I've been around long enough to know otherwise.

They are Libs, Libs, Libs. Perhaps it isn't this way everywhere, but I've had enough experience with them here in Iowa to assure you the Iowa League is nothing but a trough of Feminazis.

157 posted on 09/02/2003 11:14:44 AM PDT by Iowa Granny
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To: lodwick; Timeout; *The GUILD
Back to this renegging on the tax cut matter.

Mr Kerry claims to want to eliminate the Bush Tax Cut for the rich. If any of you get the opportunity to pose a question to Mr Kerry, ask him to define RICH. We need to know exactly where he's drawing the line between middle class and rich.

The Middle Class is, by far, the largest block of tax payers in the U.S. Elimiating the tax cut for 'the Rich' will not produce enough money to mail out the notices to these people that their tax cut has been grabbed back.

Quite frankly, I seriously doubt the Kerry Campaign has even crunched the numbers on this. It's nothing but WORDS. They haven't got a clue as to what a pitance would be saved by eliminating the Bush tax cuts for the 'rich'.

*Somewhere I read a definition of Rich,,,the definition included couples with 2 children bringing in more than $40,000.
158 posted on 09/02/2003 11:23:55 AM PDT by Iowa Granny
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To: Iowa Granny
so that votes can be based on issues rather than on personalities and popularity.

This also is a dead giveaway, because we know that none of the Dem contenders has any personality whatsoever. Okay, maybe Sharpton.

159 posted on 09/02/2003 11:25:01 AM PDT by mountaineer
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To: Iowa Granny
Nationally, the League is wacky.

They are pushing for the paperless ballots...when and if that becomes a fait acompli, we had all best spend our time and efforts at the rifle range.

I just heard on the radio that several of the local leagues are up in arms over the national position on paperless voting - may their voices be heard.
160 posted on 09/02/2003 11:38:09 AM PDT by lodwick
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