Survivor V: Thailand

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Survivor V kicks off on Thursday September 19th, and since a lot of us Freepers had fun speculating on Marquesas, I thought it would be fun to start a thread on the upcoming series.

The bios are out, which you can check out here, and there's already been scandal associated with two of the castaways.

First there's Brian, an actor/used car salesman, who neglected to tell the show that he had a few "blue" movies in his past. They cast a porn star!

Then there's Tonya. Her story could have a lasting impact on the outcome of the show. Shortly before filming came to an end, Tonya's father back in Tennessee was tragically killed in a car accident. Reports are that she was immediately evacuated from the island.

If Tonya was one of the first 7 people ejected from the show, then her departure would have no impact on the outcome. However, if she made it past the merger and either onto the jury or in the final two, then that could mean one less vote in the final two, or something even stranger. Only time will tell.

[MomwithHope]

Jeff Probst finally did something to make this Survivor interesting.

[MomwithHope]

Sook Jai is toast now. ShiAnn spilled all the scoop to Clay. They will go back to camp without her and Clay and Chewy Gum will know all Shi-Ann said was true.
This is finally getting interesting.

[Amore]

Poor Shi Ann, I had just started to like her -- which is the kiss of death for any contestant!

[mystery-ak]

I have to agree...but like everyone else she thought it was a merge.....she was playing the game...looking out for herself.

[Amore]

No, I think she was gone either way. Besides, now Chewy's in the driver's seat -- which is what I wanted anyway.

[mystery-ak]

I know...I liked her too...a kiss of death!

[another cricket]

Maybe, but she would have made it to final five if it had been a merge. Switching tribes was dumb at this point. But she had some problems not related to her tribe that she brought into this game. She said it herself, "Which one of these are not like the others." She was basically done in by her own inferiority complex.

a.cricket

[Dianna]

Is final five worth it if you have to play nice with people who can't stand you? I'd rather jump ship and have friends.

[Amore]

Yeah, I'm with you. To a certain extent, I can be friendly with people I don't like. But after that point, I have a hard time masking my dislike of those I REALLY dislike. It was a joke at my firm for years about how much I disliked one partner. Eventually the head of the firm came around to my point of view. Ahhhh! that was a happy day!

[another cricket]

For a 1 in five chance at a million dollars? When you only have to be around them for a few more days?

I would say so. But I am not sure if it was a case of them not being able to stand Shi Ann or of Shi Ann's personality which was, to put it technically, quite bitchy.

They should have voted her out and kept Robb. (I can't believe I just said that)

And you can't believe Chewy Gum wanted to be friends do you? They were using her and they would not have trusted her one inch. Would you if you were in their place?

Baring immunity they would have voted her out after Penny. Nobody likes a sell-out. You use them but you don’t like them.

a.cricket

[MattinNJ]

The look on Shi-anns face was priceless.

[Tazlo]

Can someone explain to me what the rules of the game will be if the tribes never merge? What happens when there are down to two left on a tribe? Are we back to purple rock picking?

Heck, what happens if one tribe has only one person and there are four left on the other tribe? Automatic bu-bye if the "tribe" loses immunity?

By keeping the tribes intact, won't they ensure that the jury will vote solely along tribal lines?

[cuz_it_aint_their_money]

SURVIVOR - PING
As always, if you want on or off the ping list, FReepmail me.

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This is your spoiler alert, if you taped last night’s show and haven’t had a chance to watch it yet, do not read this post.

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OK, for those of you who are still with me, here is Cuz’s weekly recap.

THE PLAYERS
Brian, Clay, Erin, Helen, Jake, Jan, Ken, Penny, Ted

THE LOSERS
John, Tanya, Jed, Ghandia, Stephanie, Robb, Shii Ann

How does that old saying go? Whenever you ASSUME anything you make an A$$ out of U and ME. Well that was the underlying factor with last night’s show, everybody was assuming that the tribes were gonna merge and started adjusting their individual strategies accordingly. Shii Ann just made a bigger A$$ out of herself than any of the other castaways, even with Brian and Jan getting smashed. (There’s that free flowing booze again. I thought the name of this show was Survivor? Sounds more like the Real World if ya ask me.)

Anyway, the show starts out with Sucky Jive arriving back at camp after booting Robb (oh thank you, thank you, thank you!) Everyone comments on how it’s too bad that they had to let Robb go, since they now will go into the merge even with Chewy Gum. Jake thinks to himself that maybe they booted the wrong person, while Ken tries to justify (to himself more than anybody else) why he voted for Robb.

Morning breaks over at Chewy Gum, with the arrival of Tree Mail, which includes 5 pots of paint, each a different color. They are each instructed to pick a color, paint themselves up (and be creative!) and then proceed to challenge beach.

The two tribes meet with Jeff P. who informs them that “Something very different is about to happen.” WELL DUHHHH! Each pair with the same color will match up, select a basket and go off and make nice-nice with each other. Two of the baskets contain additional instructions, which the pair will find out when they open their basket. (Now if you’ll permit me a brief aside. Did anyone else think that this was just a little bit STAGED! I mean granted you have 5 players on each team, 3 males & 2 females at Chewy Gum and 2 males & 3 females at Sucky Jive, with each tribe getting 5 pots of body paint, each a different color. Would an engineer, and I know we have quite a few FReepers here that are engineers care to compute the odds of each pairing ending up male and female WITHOUT any interference from the production crew! Talk about playing your long odds.)

Anyway, the pairing ends up with Clay and Shii Ann, Ken and Helen, Jake and Jan, Brian and Penny, and finally Ted and Erin. Clay and Shii Ann are to go back to Chewy Gum’s beach while Ken and Helen are to go back to Sucky Jive’s beach. The rest just get to laze around all day and enjoy each other’s company. Helen is impressed with Chewy Gum’s hut/shelter and the close proximity of their water source, but is very careful about what she says to Ken. Shii Ann and Clay arrive at Chewy Gum’s beach and Shii Ann is very impressed with the natural cave and “how dry everything is”. While she thinks to herself that she will not reveal too much to Clay about the backstabbing going on over at Sucky Jive, she instead turns into a motor mouth and just can't shut up!

Everyone meets back at the challenge beach later that day, where Jeff P. informs them that Clay/Shii Ann and Ken/Helen are now the “Ambassadors” for the two tribes. They will decide which beach the two tribes will now occupy. After a brief discussion (helped with Jeff P. informing them that they will get a new boat!) the decision is that Chewy Gum’s beach is better (read dryer!) and that they will all move there. Jeff P. informs them to head back to Chewy Gum’s beach, and Sucky Jive, all your possessions will be transferred over.

Here is where all the big-time assuming occurs. The two tribes arrive back at the dry beach, to find a feast waiting for them. Cheese and Crackers, fruits and wine, etc. They chow down and a good time is had by all (they even come up with a new name for their merged tribe – Chewy Jive! Oh my. How original. YAWN!) Boy are they in for a rude awakening!

What they failed to notice was, there was no “new tribal flag”, no “new tribal buffs”, no “new tribal color”, etc.etc.etc. Guess they were too busy stuffing their faces and getting smashed to think logically!

Of course they didn’t get so smashed that they couldn’t see how Shii Ann was making all nice-nice with the Chewy Gums and dissing the Sucky Jives big time!!

Ken and Shii Ann have it out the next morning about where exactly Shii Ann's loyalties are, and Shii Ann give Ken an ear-full. Can’t say ya didn’t see that coming Ken!

Anyway, they are all called to immunity challenge. As soon as they leave, Magilla the monkey immediately starts going through their stuff and eating their food. (Is this an omen?)

When they arrive, Jeff P. starts making small talk and then asks Erin, “Was it tough to have the two tribes on the same beach?” Innocent little wide eyed Erin replies “Yes, but the merge went smoothly.” [Big ol pregnant pause!]

Jeff P. asks, “What merge?”
“I never said anything to give you the impression that you were merged. You are still two separate tribes, just living on the same beach.”
“You will still compete as tribes for immunity.”

The camera then pans to a close up of Shii Ann and I fully expected a cartoon hand holding a big rubber stamp to come flying in from off camera and place a big red “BOOTED” sign over her face.

Anyway, the tribes are to be handcuffed, shackled and locked in a cage. Using items laying around on the floor of each cage they are to improvise a means of retrieving 15 keys hanging on posts outside the cage. Each key can only be used on one lock. When each tribe has retrieved 15 keys, and unlocked themselves, then they can dig their way under the cage and the first tribe to cross the finish line wins immunity. The losing tribe, will immediately go to tribal council, with no time to talk, scheme or plot strategies.

Jeff P. says go and it’s neck and neck for most of the challenge, but Chewy Gum manages to squeak out a win, sending Sucky Jive off to tribal council. Where Shii Ann gives them all an earful! Basically, calling them all liars and digging herself even deeper. Jeff P. says it time to vote, and no big surprise, it’s 4 to 1 against Shii Ann. Bub-Bye Shii Ann.

Now, Freeper Tazlo asked last night: “Can someone explain to me what the rules of the game will be if the tribes never merge? What happens when there are down to two left on a tribe? Are we back to purple rock picking? Heck, what happens if one tribe has only one person and there are four left on the other tribe? Automatic bu-bye if the "tribe" loses immunity? By keeping the tribes intact, won't they ensure that the jury will vote solely along tribal lines?”

There’s the rub Tazlo! Survivor was getting pretty predictable, what with one tribe getting the upper hand and “Pagonging” the other tribe. Now I never claimed to be the “all knowing” Survivor expert (heck, just take a look at my sorry prediction record) but, I think that eventually, the two tribes will have to merge into one. Even if the immunity challenges bounce back and forth from one tribe winning to the other, keeping the numbers pretty much even. My best guess is that as soon as one tribe gets down to three players left (or at the vary least two players left) the tribes will merge and it will turn into a free-for-all slug fest to determine the ultimate Survivor.

Now, before I go, Mark Burnett commented during one of his promo interviews that one of the Thailand survivors will be shown to be strategizing much like Richard Hatch did in the first Survivor.”

Anyone want to go out on a limb and offer their guess as to which one it will be?

I gotta go now, but I’ll be back next week with my pics and to let you know who I think the Richard Hatch is.

Enjoy,

[HELLRAISER II]

Theres a saying "Be careful what you ask for." Well that little whining Shiann has been asking to be booted since day one, what a whining little witch. She deserved it, Sianora Shiann go eat a few livers & hearts. I also really hated to hear her playing the race card, that's petty in my opinion where everybody's out to get everybody anyway.

[finnman69]

Question is, will chewing gum believe what Shi told Clay? After they see her gone, they will suspect either she told them the complete truth, or she was a complete liar. I think they will believe her.

ADVANTAGE: Chewing Gum.

[tear_down_this_wall]

Cuz, I'm not an engineer - but here goes.

I think it has a 10% chance of happening.

Take the tribe of 3 males and 2 females. Male #1 has a 60% chance of picking a female. Male #2 has a 50% chance of picking a female. (This particular test is without replacement.) Male #3 has a 33% chance of picking a female. If all of those happen - the other two females have to pick males. So - multiplying .6 x .5 x .33 you get .1 or 10%.

If you start with the 2 females - you end up with a formula of .25 x .4 - which still equals 10%.

Everyone clear? Am I all wet?

tdtw

[MomwithHope]

Great recap Cuz.
I think the Richard Hatch is Brian on Chewy Gum. A used car salesman knows how to manipulate people. He has been under the radar so far and has Ted, Helen, Clay and Leatherface in his back pocket. I truly think the tribes will merge next and here's why.
They are combined down to 9 people. In the end two survivors compete for votes on the jury which is an odd number of people. Merge now and there will be 7 on the jury.
Unless Ken wins individual immunity next week he is the next one to go. The 5 remaining Chewy Gums will stay united and pick off their strongest threat.
See you all next week!

[Artist]

"I think the Richard Hatch is Brian on Chewy Gum."

Exactamondo. His "kingdom" crack last night was really something.

[SC Swamp Fox]

Your are not all wet.

10% is correct.

The next time we Freepers meet in Las Vegas, you are welcome to sit at my table to help me calculate the situational odds.

[cuz_it_aint_their_money]

SURVIVOR - PING
As always, if you want on or off the ping list, FReepmail me.

THE PLAYERS
Brian, Clay, Erin, Helen, Jake, Jan, Ken, Penny, Ted

THE LOSERS
John, Tanya, Jed, Ghandia, Stephanie, Robb, Shii Ann

First of all, a big Freeper thanks to tear_down_this_wall for “esplainin” the odds of the color match-up. I was scratchin my head and saying “Huh?” until I actually sat down with pencil and paper and worked through your math model. Then it all made perfect sense!

Now, a couple of you (MomwithHope and Artist) seem to think that Brian is this season’s “Richard Hatch”, and I must admit, you both offer some very convincing arguments.
Before I tell you who I think is the Rich Hatch of Thailand, lets take a look at the strategies that Rich displayed during season one:

Contrary to popular belief, he was not an “under the radar” type player. In fact he stated during the very first show “You might as well sign my name to that Million dollar check right now.” And if you’ll recall, he parked his butt up in a tree the first few days and did absolutely nothing to earn his keep. In fact he boasted about how he needed to save his strength to pull the tribe through the challenges and on to victory. Later in the game, after the Tagi tribe won some spear fishing gear during a Reward challenge, he set himself up as the sole provider of food and intentionally limited his daily catch of fish so that all the other castaways would rely on him to eat and therefore, not vote against him. And don’t forget, Rich was the one who pranced around in his birthday suit, on his birthday! Hardly the actions of someone trying to “fly under the radar.”

He did form an alliance with Rudy early on (within the first few days). But, we didn’t know about it until later in the game, after the merge, when they started Pagonging the other players. Even then, we thought that Richard, Rudy, Sue and Kelly had always been aligned. In fact, it wasn’t until almost the end of the game that we found out that it wasn’t till after the merge that he aligned with Sue and convinced her to bring Kelly along to form the Tagi Alliance. His first alliance was and would always be with Rudy.

Finally, Rich’s alliance with Rudy was so strong, that towards the end, he intentionally threw the “Hold onto the ugly idol” immunity challenge. He knew that if he won that challenge, he would be the one deciding which of the other two to bring into the final two with him. He also knew that, since it came down to the Jury’s vote, he stood a better chance at winning the Million bucks with Kelly than with Rudy. So, since he gave his word that he “would never vote against Rudy”, he threw the challenge and took his chances that Kelly would win, which she did and the rest is history.

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So, who do I think is this season’s Richard Hatch? It’s really quite elementary, my dear Watson.
Which person has not been flying under the radar?
Which person has made a pact/alliance with one other tribemate, but has led us to believe that it’s an alliance of 4? (Keep in mind; this may not be quite as obvious.)
Which person has done his/her best to make him/her self as indispensable as possible?
And finally, which person has made him/her self out to be the leader of his/her tribe?

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While you chew on those questions, here are:

CUZ’S WEEKLY WEAKLY SURVIVOR PICS!

I may have to eat my words of advice to FReeper Tazlo. The more I thought about it, the more convinced I became that there doesn’t necessarily have to be a merge.

What if Jeff P. instead, tells the tribes that (since any player voted out from now on will be a member of the Jury) both tribes will attend tribal council. Both tribes will be subject to Jeff’s annoying questions during tribal council, but only the tribe without immunity will vote out one of their own. In the case of a tie, then the tribe with immunity will cast one tie-breaking vote.

No Pagonging. NO PURPLE ROCK! Constantly shifting alliances. More suspense. And most important of all (for Mark Burnett Productions) more viewer interest!

So, with that idea in mind…

If Chewy Gum looses Immunity, then I predict that Jan’s dementia will finally rule out and she becomes the first member of the Jury.
If Sucky Jive continues their loosing streak, then I predict that Penny’s scheming and backstabbing will be too much for even Ken to explain away and she will become the first member of the Jury.

Well there you have it, Jan or Penny.

Oh, by the way, if you answered Ken is this seasons Richard Hatch, go to the head of the class.
At least he’s my guess and we all know how accurate I’ve been this season! :~D

Anyway, I’ll be back tomorrow with my re-cap.
Enjoy,