THE PLAYERS
Brian, Clay, Erin, Helen, Jake, Jan, Ken, Penny, Ted
THE LOSERS
John, Tanya, Jed, Ghandia, Stephanie, Robb, Shii Ann
First of all, a big Freeper thanks to tear_down_this_wall for “esplainin” the odds of the color match-up. I was scratchin my head and saying “Huh?” until I actually sat down with pencil and paper and worked through your math model. Then it all made perfect sense!
Now, a couple of you (MomwithHope and Artist) seem to think that Brian is this season’s “Richard Hatch”, and I must admit, you both offer some very convincing arguments.
Before I tell you who I think is the Rich Hatch of Thailand, lets take a look at the strategies that Rich displayed during season one:
Contrary to popular belief, he was not an “under the radar” type player. In fact he stated during the very first show “You might as well sign my name to that Million dollar check right now.” And if you’ll recall, he parked his butt up in a tree the first few days and did absolutely nothing to earn his keep. In fact he boasted about how he needed to save his strength to pull the tribe through the challenges and on to victory. Later in the game, after the Tagi tribe won some spear fishing gear during a Reward challenge, he set himself up as the sole provider of food and intentionally limited his daily catch of fish so that all the other castaways would rely on him to eat and therefore, not vote against him. And don’t forget, Rich was the one who pranced around in his birthday suit, on his birthday! Hardly the actions of someone trying to “fly under the radar.”
He did form an alliance with Rudy early on (within the first few days). But, we didn’t know about it until later in the game, after the merge, when they started Pagonging the other players. Even then, we thought that Richard, Rudy, Sue and Kelly had always been aligned. In fact, it wasn’t until almost the end of the game that we found out that it wasn’t till after the merge that he aligned with Sue and convinced her to bring Kelly along to form the Tagi Alliance. His first alliance was and would always be with Rudy.
Finally, Rich’s alliance with Rudy was so strong, that towards the end, he intentionally threw the “Hold onto the ugly idol” immunity challenge. He knew that if he won that challenge, he would be the one deciding which of the other two to bring into the final two with him. He also knew that, since it came down to the Jury’s vote, he stood a better chance at winning the Million bucks with Kelly than with Rudy. So, since he gave his word that he “would never vote against Rudy”, he threw the challenge and took his chances that Kelly would win, which she did and the rest is history.
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So, who do I think is this season’s Richard Hatch? It’s really quite elementary, my dear Watson.
Which person has not been flying under the radar?
Which person has made a pact/alliance with one other tribemate, but has led us to believe that it’s an alliance of 4? (Keep in mind; this may not be quite as obvious.)
Which person has done his/her best to make him/her self as indispensable as possible?
And finally, which person has made him/her self out to be the leader of his/her tribe?
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While you chew on those questions, here are:
I may have to eat my words of advice to FReeper Tazlo. The more I thought about it, the more convinced I became that there doesn’t necessarily have to be a merge.
What if Jeff P. instead, tells the tribes that (since any player voted out from now on will be a member of the Jury) both tribes will attend tribal council. Both tribes will be subject to Jeff’s annoying questions during tribal council, but only the tribe without immunity will vote out one of their own. In the case of a tie, then the tribe with immunity will cast one tie-breaking vote.
No Pagonging. NO PURPLE ROCK! Constantly shifting alliances. More suspense. And most important of all (for Mark Burnett Productions) more viewer interest!
So, with that idea in mind…
If Chewy Gum looses Immunity, then I predict that Jan’s dementia will finally rule out and she becomes the first member of the Jury.
If Sucky Jive continues their loosing streak, then I predict that Penny’s scheming and backstabbing will be too much for even Ken to explain away and she will become the first member of the Jury.
Well there you have it, Jan or Penny.
Oh, by the way, if you answered Ken is this seasons Richard Hatch, go to the head of the class.
At least he’s my guess and we all know how accurate I’ve been this season! :~D
Anyway, I’ll be back tomorrow with my re-cap.
Enjoy, 
