Are more persons more likely to die due to obesity than crime? And briefly focus on obesity per age groups and predicted rate for youth, and the trend since 1970. Plus provide some stats on income levels, ethnicity, + politics.

Yes, individuals are significantly more likely to die from complications related to obesity than from crime or homicide.

When comparing these figures, deaths linked to obesity-related chronic illnesses out number homicides and violent crime fatalities by a factor of roughly 30 to 37 times or more annually.

In the United States, obesity rates vary by age group, with the highest prevalence found in middle-aged adults. While adult trends show signs of leveling off, childhood and youth obesity rates have climbed to historic highs. [1, 2]

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and long-term health projections highlight the following breakdowns across specific demographics and forecast models:

📊 Current Obesity Rates by Age Group

Obesity metrics systematically scale upward from early childhood through mid-adulthood before experiencing a slight decline in older populations: [1, 2]

Ages 2–5: 14.9%
Ages 6–11: 22.1%
Ages 12–19: 22.9%
Ages 20–39: 35.5%
Ages 40–59: 46.4% (The highest reporting age cohort)
Ages 60 and older: 38.9% [1, 2]

🔮 Predicted Rates for Youth

Long-term epidemiological modeling forecasts continued acceleration in youth and adolescent weight categories:

Record High Base: The overall obesity rate for youth aged 2–19 reached a record high of 21.1%, a significant shift from the 5.2% recorded in the early 1970s. Severe youth obesity rests at approximately 7%. [1]
Projections for 2050: According to predictive models published in The Lancet, the combined prevalence of overweight and obesity among older adolescents (ages 15–24) is projected to reach 57.3%. [1]
Isolated Obesity Forecast: Within that same 15–24 age category, isolated obesity alone is projected to climb to 34.2%. [1]
Long-term Shifting in Children: For younger children (ages 5–14), the baseline prevalence of obesity is forecast to expand to roughly 22.5% for males and 22.7% for females by the year 2050. [1]
Federal Truncation Goals: These upward trajectories place national metrics significantly out of alignment with the federal Healthy People 2030 initiative, which formally targets a reduction of childhood and adolescent obesity down to a benchmark of 15.5%. [1]

Age Category	Current Obesity Prevalence	Proportional Risk Status
Early Childhood (2–5)	14.9%	Lowest childhood cohort; early baseline tracking
Adolescent / Youth (12–19)	22.9%	Highest youth cohort; near-term trajectory rising
Young Adult (20–39)	35.5%	Initial adult tier escalation
Middle Age (40–59)	46.4%	Statistical peak across all combined demographics
Projected Older Youth (15–24 by 2050)	34.2% (Predicted)	Long-term forecast indicating steep structural growth

Would you like to see a comparison of how these youth projections vary by geographic region or examine the specific mathematical models researchers use to calculate these 2050 forecasts?

Individuals remain significantly more likely to die from obesity-related complications than from crime. The statistical divergence between the two causes of death broadens when analyzed through the lens of historical timelines, socioeconomic statuses, demographics, and regional political indicators.

📈 Historical Trends Since 1970

Obesity: The national adult obesity rate has nearly tripled since the 1970s, climbing from roughly 13%–15% in the early 1970s to over 40%. Severe obesity increased nearly tenfold, while childhood obesity rose from 5% to 21%. Obesity-related mortality rates have risen accordingly, tracking upward over consecutive decades. [1, 2, 3]
Crime: Homicide rates rose drastically through the 1970s and peaked globally in the United States around 1980 and 1990. Following the 1990s, violent crime rates dropped sharply, remaining structurally lower despite brief periodic spikes.

💰 Income Levels

Obesity: Prevalence is deeply stratified by socioeconomic factors, though patterns differ by sex. For women, higher income strongly associates with lower obesity rates. Conversely, data from the CDC National Center for Health Statistics indicates that lower-income men display lower obesity rates compared to men living significantly above the federal poverty line. Higher educational attainment strongly tracks with lower obesity rates across the board. [1, 2, 3]
Crime: Homicide victimization and violent crime rates are inversely proportional to income, clustering disproportionately in communities experiencing lower average income levels and high poverty indicators.

🧬 Ethnicity and Race

Obesity and Mortality: The CDC WONDER database shows stark racial disparities in age-adjusted obesity-related mortality. Black or African American individuals experience the highest obesity-related mortality rates (recently peaking near 4.3 to 7.5 per 100,000). Overall obesity rates are highest among Black and Hispanic adults, and lowest among Asian adults.
Crime: Federal violent crime registries indicate that Black, American Indian, and Alaska Native populations experience disproportionately higher rates of homicide victimization per capita relative to white and Asian cohorts. [1, 2, 3]

🗳️ Regional Politics

Obesity: According to state-level surveys matched against federal election outcomes, states that vote for Republican presidential candidates average higher adult obesity rates (roughly 35.4%) compared to states that vote for Democratic candidates (roughly 30.7%). All 10 states with the highest obesity metrics in the country regularly lean Republican. However, exceptions exist; several lean-Republican states place in the bottom 10 for obesity, and some lean-Democratic states register above the national average.
Crime: Homicide and violent crime statistics show variable distributions across political lines. High-crime sectors exist both within dense urban metropolitan areas that vote primarily Democratic and within rural southern states that vote primarily Republican. [1]

Variable	Obesity-Related Mortality	Crime/Homicide Mortality
Trend Since 1970	Continuous, steep upward trajectory	Volatile; peaked in 1980/1990, followed by net declines
Socioeconomic Focus	Highly correlated with lower education and variable income brackets	Concentrated heavily within low-income environments
Highest Vulnerability (Race)	Black and Hispanic cohorts	Black and Indigenous cohorts
Political/Regional Alignment	Disproportionately higher in Republican-voting regions	Broadly split between urban Democratic areas and rural Republican states

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