Posted on 08/10/2026 6:20:35 PM PDT by Red Badger
2026's El Niño is on course to be the most severe on record, even hotter than the 1997/98 event that caused trillions in damage and thousands of deaths.
An El Niño event like nothing we’ve ever seen before is cooking in the Pacific. Its mounting strength is so unprecedented that climate scientists aren't even sure what impact it will have when it hits full tilt, but they say this “uncharted territory” should be a cause for concern.
What is El Niño? And why is 2026 so weird?
El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterized by warmer ocean temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, triggering a domino effect that has a broad influence on the weather across the world.
It's part of a cycle that wavers through three distinct phases every few years: El Niño (the warm phase), La Niña (the cool phase), and ENSO-Neutral.
Scientists officially declare the emergence of El Niño when sea surface temperatures in this part of the Pacific rise to at least 0.5°C above the long-term average. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced we had passed this threshold back in early June, just as models predicted.
However, this El Niño has continued to muster strength at a remarkable pace despite still being relatively young. In the first week of August, temperatures in the eastern Pacific were 2.6°C above normal.
If temperatures continue to rise on this trajectory, we're in for one of the hottest El Niño phases on record.
“To put it in perspective, anything above 2°C is considered a 'super El Niño.' So we're already, at least for daily temperatures, well within a very strong or ‘super El Niño’ territory,” Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, told IFLScience.
“It’s nuts how quickly the event is developing and how strong it is to date,” he added.
Satellite-derived daily temperature changes in the Central Pacific Niño 3.4 region, showing how powerful 2026 is compared with other "very strong" ones in 1997 and 2015. Image courtesy of Zeke Hausfather / Berkeley Earth
The best comparison we have is the record-breaking El Niño of 1997/98, the strongest event in recent memory, which cost the global economy trillions and killed thousands. However, as the graph above shows, this year's El Niño is currently charging ahead even of that year's trajectory.
“We haven't had El Niño anywhere near as strong as this before at this time of year. We're in uncharted territory as far as that goes,” explained Hausfather.
Will the skyrocketing temperature line taper off early in a slightly different trajectory from previous years? It's a possibility, but most models suggest the current El Niño will go on to become the strongest on record, peaking late in 2026.
The global impact
All of this is set to have a profound impact on climate and weather across the globe. The most significant effect of El Niño is an increase in global temperatures, leading to more frequent heatwaves, disrupted rainfall patterns, and an elevated risk of drought in some regions alongside severe flooding in others.
However, the phenomenon affects different parts of the world in many other, subtler ways. In the US, El Niño typically pushes the jet stream south, bringing wetter conditions to the Gulf Coast and Southern California, milder and drier winters to the Pacific Northwest and northern states, and reduced Atlantic hurricane activity due to increased wind shear.
Elsewhere in the world, these changes can be more severe.
“In the tropical Pacific, we tend to get drier conditions. Indonesia, Southeast Asia, Eastern Australia, Southern Africa, the Northern Amazon, and India tend to be drier and have a weaker monsoon. Those are probably, of all the effects of El Niño, the ones I'd be most concerned about because they have a big impact on agricultural yields,” noted Hausfather.
El Niño is characterized by warmer ocean temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory image by Lauren Dauphin, using modified Copernicus Sentinel data (2023) processed by the European Space Agency and further processed by Josh Willis, Severin Fournier, and Kevin Marlis/NASA/JPL-Caltech
These impacts were made starkly clear in the 1997/1998 El Niño event, where thousands of people died across the world from flooding, drought, famine, fires, extreme heat, and disease outbreaks.
It's also likely to spark record-breaking coral bleaching around the world, dealing a devastating blow to the planet's already struggling reefs.
The first globally synchronous coral bleaching event occurred in 1998, coinciding with the strong El Niño. Since then, nearly every strong El Niño event has triggered a new wave of global coral bleaching.
Known unknowns
There’s no telling yet whether 2026 will be anywhere near as catastrophic as 1997/1998, partially because scientists have little idea of how the rest of the story might pan out.
“I don't want to be overly alarmist about it, but I think we should be preparing right now for something that we have never seen before,” said Hausfather.
“I hope countries, particularly in the tropics, are already starting to prepare for reduced harvests and the impacts that'll bring. I don't think we can be complacent, particularly because this event is so far outside of anything we've experienced before,” he added.
Monthly temperature differences in the Niño 3.4 region from 1950 to 2026. Image courtesy of Zeke Hausfather / Berkeley Earth
Another reason it's difficult to draw direct comparisons with El Niño of 1997/1998 is that Earth was a very different place just 28 years ago. In 2026, the planet is considerably warmer than it was in previous decades as a result of climate change, adding an additional sting to El Niño phases.
“1998 was a record-shattering year at the time for temperatures. If it occurred today, it would be exceptionally cold. That puts in perspective how much human contribution has changed things in addition to things like El Niño,” continued Hausfather.
“The last time we had a year as cold as 1998 was 2011. Every year since 2011 has been hotter than 1998,” he added.
This rapidly changing baseline is precisely what fuels the misconception that any extreme weather can be shooed away as "just El Niño" and swept under the rug. Hausfather pushes back firmly against that framing and, instead, believes that these events only further highlight the perils of climate change.
“There's a certain class of very online climate sceptics who are like ‘oh, it's all El Niño, you're just blowing natural variability out of proportion.’ But no, El Niño just gives us a sneak peek at what the new normal is going to be a decade from now,” he warned.
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Be careful out there... this is a “super el ninjo” we’re talking about here. That occassional sprinkle could turn into a near steady mist at any moment!
Mostly a political piece parading as science.
Same shxt everytime so nothing new.
LOL. Too many words of propaganda for me to read.
However, I do think the WEATHER pattern of El Nina has shifted to the north. In Florida, about 10 years ago, we used to get cold fronts during winter and spring that would bring rain for a day or a day and a half but that hasn’t been happening. I’ve tracked El Nina’s patterns, and it has shifted north over the last 10 to 12 years. During winter and spring those rainstorms we used to get are now dumping on Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolins. Lots of tornadoes and flooding in those states in recent years. Just an observation of an old Floridian.
The Chinese built the Three Gorges Dam and it altered the weather patterns..............
BRAVE AI:
China constructed the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River, creating a massive reservoir that has measurably altered local weather patterns.
Satellite data and modeling indicate that the reservoir’s large water surface has changed regional temperature and precipitation dynamics. Specifically, the dam has been linked to a “lake effect” that increased rainfall between the Daba and Qinling mountains, while reducing precipitation in the dam’s immediate vicinity.
Temperature Changes:
The reservoir causes a cooling effect on the valley during the summer (approx. -1.5°C) and a warming effect in the winter (approx. -1°C), though these impacts are largely confined to within 20 km of the water.
Precipitation Shifts: Weather changes extend over an area of roughly 160 square kilometers, with increased rainfall in mountainous regions to the west and decreased rainfall near the dam itself.
Ecological Impact:
These hydrological shifts have altered thermal stratification, potentially delaying fish spawning times and contributing to algal blooms in tributary bays.
AI-generated answer. Please verify critical facts.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/chinas-three-gorges-dam-disaster/
Amazing. Is it believable?
Altering the ‘local weather’ pattern will have a ‘butterfly effect’ on the rest of the world. You cannot pull a Jenga block out from the bottom of the stack and not affect the rest of the stack...............
Are the scienticians not going to say anything about the extreme cooling in the Western part of the Pacific in this image?
Lol!
At what rate?
Lol!
At what rate?
“I remember El Niño of 1997/1998 very well. I rode my bike daily and it seemed like I was always getting drenched. Global warming is a myth and climate change is a fictional myth, too.”
Same. It’s the most memorable year for rain for me in SoCal.
Anyway. People on here are wondering WTF this has to do with the weather. Everything. Thats the answer.
So, very soon, possibly this year, we are going to have to make a choice. Either stop all developement in the southwest or shut down the growing of the produce that provides food for 90% of north America, especially during the winter months.
Either keep watering all those golf courses around places like Palm Springs etc, or go hungry.
Isnt farming that causes this. Its the radically increase of development in the southwest. And water provides for all of it.
And the level behind the dam most likely went below 1040 this morning. Still waiting for the 6am report. It was at 1040.03 at 5am.
Yes. 100 years ago, the population of the SW and California deserts was small. Then the huge water projects, huge power projects and cheap ubiquitous air conditioning made it possible to live and grow food there (and play golf there).
Remember Carlins Hippy Dippy Weatherman?
“Weather tonight, Dark followed by light and later, more dark”
“And in sports, here’s a partial score, Cleveland 3.”
This el nino looks like its going to dump a lot of water on the USA southwest at exactly the moment when water behind the hoover dam is hovering above dead pool.
those el nino rains will be a god send.
AMEN!.......................
Oh great. Now the whole planet is going to go all wobbly! If those damns break the earth might go into a death spin! Lol.
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