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Posted on 07/04/2026 9:04:01 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
For decades, retirement advice has focused on one question: How much should you save? But two veteran financial experts argue that’s the wrong place to start.
The stock market has rewarded investors handsomely over the long run, and with major indexes hovering near record highs again, it’s easy to assume that simply investing consistently will be enough to fund a comfortable retirement.
History suggests otherwise.
According to retirement researchers Edward McQuarrie and William Bernstein, building a successful retirement has less to do with chasing market returns and more to do with understanding the kind of life you actually want to live.
Their upcoming book, Retirement: How to Save Enough, Invest It Well, and Make Your Money Last, challenges many of the traditional rules investors have followed for years.
For millions of Americans approaching retirement, their message arrives at an important time. Americans now estimate they need well over $1 million to retire comfortably, yet the average retirement account balance remains only a fraction of that amount. At the same time, longer life expectancies, rising healthcare costs, and uncertain market returns continue to make retirement planning more difficult.
Rather than focusing solely on withdrawal rates or stock allocations, McQuarrie and Bernstein say investors should first answer a far more personal question:
What does your ideal retirement actually look like?
Many retirement calculators assume everyone shares the same goal: maximize wealth while avoiding running out of money.
The authors argue that’s simply not true.
Some people naturally spend very little and derive peace of mind from knowing they’ll never exhaust their savings. Others prioritize experiences and would gladly spend more throughout retirement rather than leave behind a large estate.
Neither approach is inherently right or wrong.
Instead, understanding your own financial personality helps determine how aggressively you need to save, how much flexibility you require, and how comfortable you’ll be spending your nest egg later in life.
Someone who enjoys living modestly may already have enough to retire comfortably. Someone with expensive lifestyle expectations may require dramatically larger savings than standard retirement rules suggest.
One of the biggest assumptions many investors make is that stocks will always generate strong long-term returns.
Historically, U.S. stocks have produced average inflation-adjusted returns of roughly 6% annually over long periods.
The important word, however, is average.
Not every generation experiences those returns.
McQuarrie’s historical research, which examines market performance dating back to the late 1700s, found that roughly one out of every eight 30-year investment periods produced real returns below 4% annually.
That difference may not sound dramatic, but over decades it can mean hundreds of thousands of dollars less in retirement savings.
For investors counting on optimistic market assumptions, disappointing returns could significantly alter retirement plans.
Even the best financial plan has to account for uncertainty.
The authors identify three major unknowns every retiree faces.
Future market performance may be weaker than historical averages.
No investor knows whether the next 30 years will resemble the strongest periods in history or some of the weakest.
Healthcare costs, home repairs, family emergencies, inflation, and unexpected financial obligations can all dramatically change spending needs.
A retirement budget that looks comfortable today may not remain realistic decades from now.
Perhaps the biggest unknown is how long retirement will last.
Living far longer than expected is financially wonderful—but only if your savings can keep up.
Running out of money late in life remains one of retirees’ biggest fears.
Instead of focusing exclusively on the familiar 4% withdrawal rule, McQuarrie and Bernstein point to a much simpler benchmark.
If your investment portfolio equals roughly 50 times your annual spending, they argue the probability of exhausting your assets becomes dramatically lower.
Here are a few examples:
| Annual Retirement Spending | Suggested Portfolio Size |
|---|---|
| $20,000 | $1 million |
| $40,000 | $2 million |
| $80,000 | $4 million |
| $100,000 | $5 million |
| $200,000 | $10 million |
The implication is straightforward.
Your spending habits may have a bigger impact on retirement security than your investment returns.
Reducing annual expenses by even $10,000 can lower the amount of wealth needed by hundreds of thousands of dollars.
One of the authors’ strongest recommendations has little to do with investing.
Avoid allowing spending to rise every time your income increases.
Raises, bonuses, inheritances, and unexpected windfalls create opportunities to dramatically improve long-term financial security—but only if the additional income gets invested instead of spent.
Many households naturally adjust their lifestyles upward as earnings grow.
Larger homes.
Luxury vehicles.
Designer clothing.
Expensive vacations.
The problem isn’t any single purchase.
It’s that higher spending quickly becomes permanent, making it much harder to reduce expenses later.
By maintaining the same lifestyle even as income grows, investors can significantly accelerate retirement savings while still benefiting from decades of compound growth.
For younger investors, the authors recommend an ambitious benchmark:
Save at least 20% of your income throughout your working career.
That level of saving won’t be easy for every household, particularly early in a career.
But consistently saving a substantial percentage often matters far more than finding the next winning stock or perfectly timing the market.
Regular contributions combined with decades of investing remain one of the most reliable ways to build long-term wealth.
One surprising recommendation has nothing to do with money.
William Bernstein argues that finding work you genuinely enjoy may produce better retirement outcomes than constantly pursuing the highest possible salary.
Someone who enjoys their career may willingly continue working into their late 60s or even 70s.
Working just a few additional years can provide multiple financial benefits:
By contrast, burnout often forces high-income workers into earlier retirement, reducing both savings and future income.
For those already retired, the authors encourage flexibility rather than rigid withdrawal formulas.
Many financial plans assume retirees will withdraw a fixed percentage every year regardless of market conditions.
Instead, adjusting spending when markets struggle can significantly improve the longevity of a retirement portfolio.
Reducing discretionary expenses during difficult years may accomplish more than constantly searching for higher investment returns.
Ultimately, spending remains one of the few retirement variables investors can directly control.
Bull markets have a way of making retirement seem easy.
When portfolios steadily rise, it’s tempting to believe future gains will solve every financial challenge.
History suggests otherwise.
Successful retirement planning isn’t simply about picking the right investments or hoping the next several decades resemble the last several decades.
It’s about honestly defining the lifestyle you want, saving consistently, resisting unnecessary lifestyle inflation, and building enough flexibility to handle whatever the future brings.
Because while markets will inevitably rise and fall over time, the retirement you ultimately build depends far more on the financial decisions you make long before you stop working.
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The no debt thing is critically important.
There are many retirees that go into their latter years with a mortgage, credit card debt, and new car loans. Servicing that debt will eat up a bunch of their monthly income.
A buddy of mine and his wife took a scuba diving trip to Hawaii back in May with friends. Cost him around $20K.
What worked for me is a good Social Security check, pension check, house paid off, cars paid off, credit cards paid off.
I was fine till BIDEN. Now my income almost covers everything. ALMOST. Having to dip into emergency savings ever so often.
Yep - we both retired at 62 (wife is 2-1/2 years older than me) and I planned on us living to 90 - which would put us 10 -12 years older than anyone on either side of our families - and that should still leave a small amount for the grandkids.
So, it’s a long-winded way of saying, “if you think you have enough, you’re still at least 50% short....”
Dad’s family usually lived to almost 90 years. Drinking and smoking.
Dad retired at 62 and died at 70. No guarantee of how long you will live.
I retired at 62 expecting to live to 70, then choke and croak. Still going at 80 years of age.
I remember working companions who continued to work after they were 62 in hopes of a bigger SS check. Some did not make it.
Generally speaking.
What driveway costs are you planning?
Interesting that they left off one of biggest expenses = Real Estate Tax - In Illinois the average House is taxed at over $12,000 a year plus all of the other taxes. That is $1000 off the top every month to stay in your house.
Before COVID, my plan was to retire in 2023/2024 but my employer had us work from home during COVID and the building we used fell into disrepair so I’ve been working from home for the last 5 years or so. There’s no new building in the future so I can work out of my basement for a while yet. If I retired today, I would still have to find something to do but that means driving so I decided to just stay at my current job as long as we like each other. Its nice having the option to walk away of I had too.
I went to Italy two years ago.
My wife son and I.
2 weeks
$20K
Just the flights on Delta in the cheap seats were $4400.
I remember a trip to Mexico 29 years ago was about $3k for the whole family
I will most likely be spending $32K to repave my blacktop driveway.
The estimate is $5.40/square foot.
I am in southern NH.
In addition to that I had about thirty trees taken down with a crane.$8K.
Then I reshaped the hillside that the trees were on adjacent to the driveway. Small excavator and skid steer for the day $3K.
So, the entire project will be around $43.000.
This is far the most money I have ever spent on a home improvement project.
Interesting that you forgot to mention the most important number—even after the article focused on it.
How much are you going to spend each year when you retire?
If you can nail down a solid budget then you will have a much better handle on where you stand.
“lawn $1,500/year”
I see able bodied people paying for lawn service.
I an almost 80 and still do my lawn. Only one on the block to do so.
Yesterday in the Florida heat I cut the grass and did the trimming without taking a break.
My wife dud upgrad me to a self-propelled mower last year!
Sounds like the perfect setup! You’re lucky.
“Retire with an annuity not just stocks and savings.”
If you expect to live a long retirement you need growth. Annuities don’t provide growth. And they come with hefty fees.
I retired 15 years ago and my stock portfolio is much larger than when I retired.
My IRA is 3x higher in spite of taking out each year.
Last year I took out 15%.
I have a long blacktop as well. They can dry out (lose color) and develop cracks (thanks tree roots) and everyone in the blacktop business wants to redo mine. One actually wanted to rip it out and lay down a new one (for fifty thousand dollars). I go to Lowes and buy blacktop sealer and apply it myself. Squeegee it out. Hard work but I don’t have the money to hire it done.
If she upgraded you to a self propelled mower, I wouldn’t call her a dud.
He’s almost 80 and still does his own trolling.
Pity that Jim Thompson isn’t around to suspend him in the usual way...
Even if you have a well and septic, pumps sometimes need to be replaced or lightning happens, and the tank needs to be pumped.
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