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Posted on 04/02/2026 5:51:04 AM PDT by Miami Rebel
Oil surged 10% Thursday as U.S. President Donald Trump warned of further military aggression against Iran in the next two to three weeks, dampening hopes for an imminent de-escalation in the conflict.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for May were up 10% at $110.21 a barrel as of 8:13 a.m. ET. June futures for international benchmark Brent crude rose 8% to $109.25 per barrel.
Trump in his speech attributed the increase in oil prices to the “Iranian regime launching deranged terror attacks against commercial oil tankers and neighboring countries that have nothing to do with the conflict.”
He said the U.S. will “hit” Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks during a national address on Wednesday, while adding that the war won’t last long and discussions with Tehran “are ongoing,” leaving a diplomatic resolution on the table.
“We are going to finish the job, and we’re going to finish it very fast,” he said.
George Efstathopoulos, portfolio manager at Fidelity International, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” that markets had braced for a “binary outcome,” expecting the president to either signal his plans for a war exit or further escalation and prolonged uncertainty — “clearly we seem to be on the latter path right now.”
Efstathopoulos expects the speech to further fuel the risk-off sentiment as investors wait for uncertainty to subside.
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, which used to see a fifth of the world’s oil and gas flows through, has effectively ground to a halt since the U.S.-Israel war against Iran began on Feb. 28, sending energy prices soaring in one of the world’s most devastating energy crises.
Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was unlikely to resume anytime soon, said Giles Alston, political risk analyst at Oxford Analytica.
“It’s becoming increasingly clear that the U.S. position on what you do to get your oil out of and through the Straits of Hormuz is now something which Washington has largely washed its hands off. This is now something for those who take oil through the Strait to sort out for themselves,” he said on CNBC on Thursday.
Earlier on Wednesday, Trump said in a post on Truth Social that Iran had asked for a ceasefire, briefly raising hopes for more oil tanker movement through the waterway, sending oil prices lower.
Iran’s “New Regime President” has asked the U.S. for a ceasefire, a request that will only be considered if the Strait of Hormuz is “open, free, and clear,” Trump said. “Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!!”
The Islamic Republic, however, has denied Trump’s claim, saying that the waterway won’t be reopened based on the U.S. leader’s “absurd displays” and that the key transit route remains “decisively and dominantly under the control of the IRGC Navy.”
The two sides have frequently contradicted each other’s claims about the existence and status of peace-deal talks since the war started. Trump has also sent conflicting signals, reportedly saying negotiations were close to producing a peace deal, but the U.S. was also prepared to escalate fighting by sending thousands of troops to the region.
Brent oil dipped below $100 per barrel for the first time in a week after Trump said Tuesday evening that he expected the U.S. military to wind down operations against Iran in “two or three weeks” and appeared to be declaring victory even without a negotiated deal with Iran. “We’ll be leaving very soon,” he said.
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lol... you ass-u-me you’re the only one who makes money off investments, oil and politics. Biden and Trump bought me trucks and rural land - that will get built on if we go boots on ground and the strait stays closed.
Shut your douchehole and brag about your supposed portfolio to someone else. I don’t even know you.
there are two general ways of investing....
long term, which tends to be based on fundamentals
and
trader, short term... which tends to be based on market dynamics, scares, etc. includes most of the Congressional insider trading moves...since they can create the scares they profit from (plus, they use their bribe proceeds so really they’re not even risking any funds they’ve had to do any real work for...bribes are always coming in... and if the bribes slow down all Congress has to do is introduce a few bills or investigations about any industry they choose....banking, railroads, technology, food, retail, you name it... and the lobbyists come running in from all sides with more and more $$$$)
I have tried to make a few small investments short=term ...but it isn’t as easy as we are so oft-told it is...basically, it is like a sheep voluntarily rushing into the shearing pen...
I stick with Plan A (long-term investing) and basically just ride the government-created inflation curve like a practiced surfer rides the ocean waves.
It is not fears of “escalation” just fear the present becomes a status quo without an end in site.
Which is absolutely, positively the way to go!
Indeed, I’d go a step further and say that over the long haul? The fundamentals of a free market are ALWAYS strong.
The overwhelming majority of my portfolio is pretty simple ETFs (mostly board index, but I do dabble in sectors on occasion), REITs, etc. Sure - a bit of hedging. I’m neither a doomer or a gold bug, but I’ll trade a bit of upside gain for downside risk aversion. Gold makes sense - in small proportions - for most folks.
However, I do like to allocate a small bit of my investing to individual stock picking. Even there, though?
I follow pretty bog standard cliches made famous by people like Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, etc. I follow the 5 year rule - never invest a dollar I need/want to spend in the next 5 years. I like to understand and know what I’m buying. And I pore over 10-Q/10-Ks.
I 100% agree on short-term/day traders - I imagine every investor has dabbled in his life at some point. Not for me. Buy and hold.
sounds like you got a plan there. smiles smiles
once every couple years i try a quickie short term swing investment.... or rather, gamble.
i usually lose at these.
it is very much like ... I buy a lotto ticket when the prize gets up over a billion dineros.
i obviously always lose, of course.
or else I’d be typing this from my yacht in Tahiti
Haha - don’t feel bad. I do not at all exclude myself from that “every investor has dabbled...”!
I’ve nibbled - fortunately, in small bites only! - at the temptation to either catch a falling knife or grab a rocket ship too late.
Inevitably? Works out the same. Then I bang my head on my desk, “stupid, stupid, stupid. Why did you try that again?”.
So, I know of what you speak. It’s as if every year or 2? I need a refresher lesson... and then, I create one. For myself!
smiles
I never liked when the left spewed inaccurate coined statements that you had to be ignorant to believe. I like it even less when Trump does it. And we obviously pay a lot more for oil due to what is going on over there. When the ships can’t get through. So it does matter to us.
Just like it bothers me every time he says no taxes on SS, no taxes on tips, no taxes on overtime. That is true for most people, I get that, but he makes it sounds like it is for EVERYONE.
It is not, it is ‘means tested’— the same way that democrats just love to limit every single tax advantage. Last time I counted, there are 13 tax deductions that are means tested in the tax code—the democrats version of mini-socialism. At least be totally honest about it.
Nope
We need a popular uprising to take over ftom the IRCG for a TRUE regime change.
If the U.S. can produce more oil then some countries and yet gas prices increase it can be due to price gouging huh Moe.
If you think that this Administration has the slightest interest in limiting the profitability of the oil and gas industry, I’ve got a bridge to sell you.
(Currently my portfolio is over 40% in the oilpatch.)
Highest they have ever been here in Oregon. (3.80 pre Iran) 6.50 for diesel this morning. But then again, it’s the left coast and the fuel comes from California which is shifting to summer blend and the closures of refining capacity aren’t helping.
Knock it off.
Good grief.
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