The Electric Vehicle Collapse: Wow, That Was Quick!

It was less than three years ago — early 2023 — that I was writing about the then-universal government and industry line that electric vehicles (EVs) would soon be taking over the American car market. In April 2022 the Biden Administration had adopted aggressive vehicle mileage standards intended to be achievable only through rapid transition to EVs. Our “climate leader” states, California and New York, had then adopted regulations in August and September 2022, respectively, mandating a phase-out of sales of combustion vehicles, to culminate in 2035, after which only EVs would be allowed. In a post in January 2023, I linked to the websites of Ford and GM, where they both touted their grand plans for rapid conversion of their companies to the manufacture of mostly or entirely EVs. At that time, Ford was claiming that it would “lead America’s shift to EVs,” and would achieve 50% of its sales in that category by 2030. GM bragged about its “path to an all-electric future” by 2035.

It seems like all the smart people have made up their minds that the future of automobiles belongs to electric vehicles. . . . So, are electric vehicles about to sweep the country and become the dominant form of transportation? I bet against it.

This is just a specific instance of the general principle that it is always wise to bet against central planning of the economy. EVs may be a successful niche product for a small number of wealthy consumers, but the idea that they will fully replace gasoline powered cars in short order is the dream of central planners, who think they can implement their dream by coercion. Central planning never works, and won’t work this time either.

The past few weeks have brought a lot of news on the EV front. The short version is that even I would not have predicted how quickly and completely the EV fantasy has collapsed.

The background, of course, is that the second Trump administration took prompt steps on re-entering office to end the huge federal support that had been propping up EV sales. The large tax credit for EV purchases was ended by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed on July 4 and effective after September 30, 2025. On December 3, the administration announced the roll-back of the vehicle mileage standards known as “CAFE,” to levels at which combustion vehicles can comply.

The collapse of EV sales began immediately with the end of the tax credit. On October 31, trade publication Inside EVs reported on the first month’s results after the end of the credit:

Both J.D. Power and S&P Global Mobility estimate that October's EV market share plummeted to around 5% in the U.S., from a record high of over 12% in September. The battery-powered share of sales also dropped significantly on a year-over-year basis, from over 8% in October 2024. The last time EVs made up 5% of U.S. vehicle sales was in early 2022. According to S&P Global Mobility, some 64,000 new electric vehicles were sold in October. That's an epic drop from September, when Americans bought or leased nearly 150,000 EVs as they scrambled to cash in on the expiring $7,500 incentive.

The big automakers were quick to realize that they had to do a pivot. On December 15 the Wall Street Journal reported that Ford would take a massive charge of $19.5 billion to write down its EV investments:

Ford Motor said Monday it expected to take about $19.5 billion in charges, mainly tied to its electric-vehicle business, a massive hit as the automaker retrenches in the face of sinking EV demand. The sum is among the largest impairments taken by a company and marks the U.S. auto industry’s biggest reckoning to date that it can’t realize its electric-vehicle ambitions anytime soon.

The $19.5 billion is in addition to some $13 billion of operating losses that Ford has incurred over the past 3 years trying to compete in the EV business, even with the huge government subsidies:

Over at GM, the write-down is smaller, but the change of direction is no less stark. From NBC News, October 16:

On Tuesday, General Motors reported it was taking losses totaling $1.6 billion related to planned changes to its EV rollout. The company attributed some of the change to President Donald Trump’s elimination of the $7,500 in EV purchasing incentives enacted by President Joe Biden.

Nor is the collapse of EV sales limited to Ford and GM. From the NBC piece, as to Tesla:

Plunging sales at Tesla — still the U.S. leader in EV sales — are also contributing to the weakening outlook. Its second-quarter sales dropped almost 13%, and CEO Elon Musk has warned of some “rough quarters” ahead for the company.

And a comparable phenomenon is occurring in other countries, although under differing regulatory and policy regimes. From the Wall Street Journal, October 14:

The Rest of the World Is Following America’s Retreat on EVs. Canada, U.K. and European Union back off electric-vehicle targets as economic reality sets in and even China shows cracks. . . . Carmakers argue the EV business model is an unprofitable proposition given still-high battery costs, spotty car-charging networks and dwindling government subsidies. Incentive programs have ended or have been pared back across Europe and in the U.S. and Canada.

Let’s face it, this was always ill-conceived central planning, and it was never going to work. I went back to the links that I had included to the Ford and GM websites in my January 2022 post. Both links remain active, but the excited talk about leading the way to an all-EV future has been scrubbed from both. Instead, if you go there, you will find, in the case of GM, further links to follow if you want to buy yourself an EV; and in the case of Ford, general news about the company. Reality has returned.

The average American drives 14,500 miles per year total.

My Model 3 uses 180-250 watt hours per mile in Texas heat with the AC ripping and at 55-75mph in the tollways and hwy 75 into and out of Big D , around the rural area at 35 mph and under it’s 100wh or less, and in stop and go gridlock I have seen under 90 wh per mile even with climate control running it cools the driver first via the seats and direct vents very efficiently at that it’s a heat pump.

So 14500 miles per year @ 250 wh/mile using the highest number I usually see over all average is 170 but for arguments 250.

14500/250= 3625 kWh to travel those miles

AC L2 charging shows 8% gross to net in the pack so

3625*1.08= 3915 gross kWh from the plug.

Texas retail power today I just looked at power2choose.org is 11 cents per kWh

3915*.011= $430

$430/14500= $0.029 or 2.9 cents per mile in energy costs

My S60 averaged 28mpg under identical driving to and from Big D at the time fuel was $3-$3.50 at 28 mpg that’s 10-12.5 cents per mile or FIVE times as much as retail power.

So what would gasoline need to cost retail to equal 2.9 cents per mile in a 28 mpg cat easy peasy 2.9x28= 81.9 CENTS PER GALLON yeah only in Saudi Arabia will you ever see that low of a price.

I used to own a S60 T5 AWD that was identical in footprint size down to the inch in both length and width. It also ran on identical 18” Pirelli tires and I mean identical bought 8 tires when I owned both the Model 3 and S60 at the same time had then installed by a friends tire stop for a fee. No “special” EV tires needed and the Volvo was 220 lb heavier curb weight at that.

Also the payment on the Volvo was more than $200 higher per month as it was a $57,000 Volvo vs a $35,000 Telsa so from mile one the Volvo was more capital expenses.

Not to mention $150 oil changes every 5000 miles, $1600 105,000 mile service, $1000 brake jobs two of them while I owned it, $1300 for five spark plugs and coils , Volvo puts them under the valve cover and gaskets it’s 2 hours of stop time @175 hour to get at the plugs under the coils and two more hours to install everything back each coil was $95 there are 5 of them....Yeah ICE maintenance.

Tesla Model 3 one set of tires because I wanted Z speed rated vs OEM when I got it. maintenance? Zero not even brakes because it uses regenerative braking with the electric motors plural to brake and almost come to a stop only the last mph or so is mechanical brakes they are going to last till I trade it in when it hits 120,000 miles for another one. It’s battery has a 8 year no questions warranty it will be traded in at 3 maybe 4 years old if that I already want a Model S now and love my leased Model Y as well.

The added bonus is I don’t pay for retail power I have solar panels on my roof lines and yard on poles so much that I always export power every month for profit at that so every mile I drive is zero power costs from the grid. Really it cost me the opportunity costs to not sell that power to the grid vs using in my Teslas plural.

FSD 14 is priceless it can do door to door drives from my place to pretty much anywhere in the Metroplex I have let it drive door to door to Shreveport right up to the front of the casino in Shreveport hands off the whole way it tracks your eyes via the interior IR cameras, protip it can’t see through Oakley Prism Lens it then only can and does track your head so you can look down and use your phone too no stikes given ha.

So for the average person how many panels to power their Tesla for 14,500 miles?

You need to know your PVOUT which in this part of Texas is 4.5kWh out for every kw of system capacity in a 30 year solar insolation average for a 365 day period. Which is exactly what you need to know for a yearly output to cover yearly mileage.

For every kw of installed capacity you will get 1642 kWh per year in a rolling past 30 year average sunlight amount at groundlevel at at a tilt of your latitude aimed due south. Bifacial panels would add 30-40% to that number but we will use single sided panels, all of my new ones are bifacial but I digress.

To make 3915kWh per year you need 2.38 kw of installed capacity in your system.

You can get 700 watt bifacial panels for $140 from China or $228 from Canada retail price by the individual panel. Wholesale by the pallet is $80 from China or $120 from Canada.

Four 700 watt panels is 2.8kw that would make 4,600 kWh per year in sunny Texas.

Four panels are also a one time investment of $912

You will need a 3000 watt 240v inverter those are 16 cents per watt of capacity retail. $460

No penetration panel roof mounts are $9 each retail under $2 wholesale. You need 16 for 4 panels. $144

Romex is $1 per foot for 240V rated wire four panels in series is going to max out at 192V so wire costs $100-200 depending on how far your panels are from the inverter in the garage. Mine are on the roof above it so under 20 feet distance.

912
460
144
100

(1616)
Materials

Labor if you did the install yourself zero these are plywood sheet sized panels and the mounts slide under an singles with caulk gun adhesive added to both sides easy peasy. Should take a couple hours on the roof at most for any regular dude to do it. Or hire some day labor for $15 per hour from home depot parking lot. Plus a 6 pack of Modelo of course don’t be an animal.

Since this is just for a Tesla you could skip the grid breakers and tie the L2 charger will interface directly to the 240V outputs of the inverter you just plug it in the car when it’s sunny.

Or pay a certified electrician to run the 240V output to a 50 amp breaker in your panel behind the master disconnect breaker and of local code needs it an auto disconnect breaker instead of a normal 50 amp bipolar breaker. Most inverters have grid sense and will not power up at all if they don’t sense the 60hz grid sync signal indicating the grid is up. Only in island mode will a decent inverter use its internal 60hz standard vs grid sensing. So possibly $150-200 more per hour if you grid tie and need a auto disconnect breaker we don’t if it’s behind a existing master disconnect and the inverter grid senses.

So for $1616 in capital expenses you just bought 25+ years of driving “fuel” this is why EVs make so much sense.

Driving around town the average person does less than 40 miles per day.

Charging retail from L2 at home = 2.9 cents per mile in the same sized gasoline car you would need 82 cents per gallon at the pump to be as cheap.

So how much gasoline does $1616 buy you? It’s $2.59 today via gasbuddy. So $1616 buys you 623.9 gallons which in a 28mpg car will take you 17,470 miles. Slightly more than a year’s worth for the avg American.

Those 4 panels will make 4600 kWh their first year and decline at 0.5% or less per year for the next 25 years they are warrantied to 80% capacity at the end of the 25th year. There are panels from two generations ago that are 45 years old and still above 80% original capacity. I have five year old panels that are above 98% original capacity and losing 0.3% per year or less.

We will use what the manufacturer says to doing a linear decline to 80%

V1=4600
𝑉25=0.80×4600 kWh=3680 kWh

𝑆=𝑛2(𝑉1+𝑉25)

S=25/2(4600 kWh+3680 kWh)

S=103,500

The total sum of kWh at the end of the 25th year is 103,500 kWh.

Yes you read that right over the 25 year lifetime which in reality panels are going 45+ years but for the rated 25 year life down to 80% capacity at the end of the 25th year you will make 103,500 kWh in sunny Texas.

That is enough to send a Model 3 sized EV 414,000 miles vs 17500 miles if you just bought gasoline with the $1616

How much cents per mile is it with those panels

$1616/414000 =

That’s 0.39 CENTS per mile 4/10s of a cent.

Gasoline would need to cost 10.9 cents per gallon to equal that in a 28mpg car.

EVs are the cheapest cost per mile for energy costs regardless of how you charge them and if you have panels even a small number it’s like having a ten cents per gallon oil well on the roof.

Remember the payments on my Model 3 are $200 less per month vs the gasoline car it replaced and its total cost is less too. So the argument EV is more energy in the expensive is false for this case as it’s fully $22,000 less new vs the car it replaced.

Game.set.match.

Any other talk is just an emotional driven argument and not facts.

It is mathematically conclusive my EV is cheaper in operating cost, fueling cost and ,capital cost vs the S60 it replaced.

And with panels above it it basically fuels itself for free after the initial capital expense which would have only taken an ICE car 17500 miles and under 2 years of use vs 25+ for the panels. with decent credit you can lease a Model 3 for $299 per month never worry about it’s battery or anything else it’s all under warranty.

$299 a month and virtually zero fuel costs if you have panels even a small number of them. Zero ICE maintenance, no oil,no brakes,no plugs,no clutches ,no timing belts,none of that nonsense. Plus FSD 14+ yeah I’ll never drive an ICE car again , F250 diesel for doing truck things and truck things only sure until Dodge comes out with the 2500 version of their plug in range extended RamCharger then the F250 goes to the great scrapheap in the sky.

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