Posted on 12/20/2025 6:02:42 AM PST by MtnClimber
It was less than three years ago — early 2023 — that I was writing about the then-universal government and industry line that electric vehicles (EVs) would soon be taking over the American car market. In April 2022 the Biden Administration had adopted aggressive vehicle mileage standards intended to be achievable only through rapid transition to EVs. Our “climate leader” states, California and New York, had then adopted regulations in August and September 2022, respectively, mandating a phase-out of sales of combustion vehicles, to culminate in 2035, after which only EVs would be allowed. In a post in January 2023, I linked to the websites of Ford and GM, where they both touted their grand plans for rapid conversion of their companies to the manufacture of mostly or entirely EVs. At that time, Ford was claiming that it would “lead America’s shift to EVs,” and would achieve 50% of its sales in that category by 2030. GM bragged about its “path to an all-electric future” by 2035.
In a post on February 23, 2023, I expressed skepticism.
It seems like all the smart people have made up their minds that the future of automobiles belongs to electric vehicles. . . . So, are electric vehicles about to sweep the country and become the dominant form of transportation? I bet against it.
Here was my reasoning:
This is just a specific instance of the general principle that it is always wise to bet against central planning of the economy. EVs may be a successful niche product for a small number of wealthy consumers, but the idea that they will fully replace gasoline powered cars in short order is the dream of central planners, who think they can implement their dream by coercion. Central planning never works, and won’t work this time either.
The past few weeks have brought a lot of news on the EV front. The short version is that even I would not have predicted how quickly and completely the EV fantasy has collapsed.
The background, of course, is that the second Trump administration took prompt steps on re-entering office to end the huge federal support that had been propping up EV sales. The large tax credit for EV purchases was ended by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed on July 4 and effective after September 30, 2025. On December 3, the administration announced the roll-back of the vehicle mileage standards known as “CAFE,” to levels at which combustion vehicles can comply.
The collapse of EV sales began immediately with the end of the tax credit. On October 31, trade publication Inside EVs reported on the first month’s results after the end of the credit:
Both J.D. Power and S&P Global Mobility estimate that October's EV market share plummeted to around 5% in the U.S., from a record high of over 12% in September. The battery-powered share of sales also dropped significantly on a year-over-year basis, from over 8% in October 2024. The last time EVs made up 5% of U.S. vehicle sales was in early 2022. According to S&P Global Mobility, some 64,000 new electric vehicles were sold in October. That's an epic drop from September, when Americans bought or leased nearly 150,000 EVs as they scrambled to cash in on the expiring $7,500 incentive.
The big automakers were quick to realize that they had to do a pivot. On December 15 the Wall Street Journal reported that Ford would take a massive charge of $19.5 billion to write down its EV investments:
Ford Motor said Monday it expected to take about $19.5 billion in charges, mainly tied to its electric-vehicle business, a massive hit as the automaker retrenches in the face of sinking EV demand. The sum is among the largest impairments taken by a company and marks the U.S. auto industry’s biggest reckoning to date that it can’t realize its electric-vehicle ambitions anytime soon.
The $19.5 billion is in addition to some $13 billion of operating losses that Ford has incurred over the past 3 years trying to compete in the EV business, even with the huge government subsidies:
Ford . . . has lost $13 billion on its EV business since 2023. . . .
Over at GM, the write-down is smaller, but the change of direction is no less stark. From NBC News, October 16:
On Tuesday, General Motors reported it was taking losses totaling $1.6 billion related to planned changes to its EV rollout. The company attributed some of the change to President Donald Trump’s elimination of the $7,500 in EV purchasing incentives enacted by President Joe Biden.
Nor is the collapse of EV sales limited to Ford and GM. From the NBC piece, as to Tesla:
Plunging sales at Tesla — still the U.S. leader in EV sales — are also contributing to the weakening outlook. Its second-quarter sales dropped almost 13%, and CEO Elon Musk has warned of some “rough quarters” ahead for the company.
And a comparable phenomenon is occurring in other countries, although under differing regulatory and policy regimes. From the Wall Street Journal, October 14:
The Rest of the World Is Following America’s Retreat on EVs. Canada, U.K. and European Union back off electric-vehicle targets as economic reality sets in and even China shows cracks. . . . Carmakers argue the EV business model is an unprofitable proposition given still-high battery costs, spotty car-charging networks and dwindling government subsidies. Incentive programs have ended or have been pared back across Europe and in the U.S. and Canada.
Let’s face it, this was always ill-conceived central planning, and it was never going to work. I went back to the links that I had included to the Ford and GM websites in my January 2022 post. Both links remain active, but the excited talk about leading the way to an all-EV future has been scrubbed from both. Instead, if you go there, you will find, in the case of GM, further links to follow if you want to buy yourself an EV; and in the case of Ford, general news about the company. Reality has returned.
“Sylvia”
Cool ...
If you had named her “Charlene”, I’d be a bit concerned.
Sylvia Silverado
I am happy to see this insanity die for now but I doubt it will stay gone. The dims will bring it back out of spite if for no other reason when they return to power as they will many other things with a terrifying new vengeance that I fear will make bidet look tame.
A few years ago I compared the full cycle economy of EV and ICE, EV did not make sense then and it does not now.
If you insist upon a change in how we move the Hybrid is the way to go. Even a plug-in Hybrid is OK. I would even consider to buy one if priced competitively.
Subsidies only work as long as they are available. Watch what happens to wind and solar next. The same thing happened to coal bed methane when the subsidy was dropped, it died.
There will be a rationalization of AI one day. When I can’t predict, but it is destined for being over built. Most of the massive investments is being built as if it will be the only one available to supply the perceived need. I also see that it can only make money for a limited number of people in the form of a ponzi scheme. The upfront investment amount and pace does not have the equally fast and massive revenue stream to back that up. It will provide a low NPV, low RoR and possibly a large and maybe dependable MOD funds flow. For tidal wave type investments to achieve decent returns they need tidal wave type return cash flows.
Very few mega trends produce good economic outcomes for the original investors. If you look at the full cycle investment of all investment in the dot.com era or even the laptop computing era it would not be good. The survivors though come out well at the expense of the failures. Full cycle, commercial airplanes and drilling rigs are the same. Drilling rigs built in boom times eventually make money for the people who buy them out of bankruptcy and use them in the next boom.
A lot of what our economy is built on now is founded on fad mentality and in that you can predict accurately the dominoes will fall.
Central planning is hardly ever successful. That said though, we need a national energy policy that can endure changes in politics. We have never had one.
The one thing that came out of the EV mini-revolution that is useful is portable tools and the small power stations. Both have revolutionized work and are powerful and reliable but at a cost of course. The batteries are expensive. I resisted for quite some time but finally broke over to a battery weed eater that I use for chores rotating three battery packs. I still keep my very powerful gas powered brush cutter though. I also have a full array of battery powered hand tools and am in the market for mid-size power pack to operate some corded tools.
I will most likely invest in about 10 to 12Kw of solar power as a hedge against what I expect will be continually rising power costs but it will not have backup battery storage, that does not make economic sense as long as there is even a limited power grid and I have my diesel generator for emergency power. Investment in solar has a very marginal return in my case and for the current electricity prices even if they rise at the rate of inflation. Instead, it is a strategic investment much like training is for a company. Training never makes money and can’t be justified in a current economic sense nor can R&D. Both are strategic investments only justified by the will of leadership.
One of my cohort who is prone to the latest fads declared that EV’s are here to stay and to stop resisting them. That was in 2022. Now he says the same thing about AI. I am as skeptical now about that as I was about EV then.
The interesting development is the merger of Trump’s communications investment with the Fusion power concern. That is a page to watch. Trump is Trump but he is also no fool.
They are not idiots. The issue is they have evil intent.
I am not in any way an apologist for Teslas or EVs. But I do recognize that the incentive for profit spurs inovation.
Where there is a problem someone will invent a solution so as to make a profit.
Tesla Battery Replaced: How I Got It From $13k to $1,254 video
The next Democrat president is going to restart the massive EV taxpayer money bribe.
A friend of mine has vision problems and she just got a self driving Tesla. She doesn’t like it but it can get her where she wants to go.
Exactly. And mandates/subsidies stifle innovation.
And when someone makes a flawed product
Some else will find a way to profit from fixing that product.
So I got picked up by Uber in one of those Chinese made BYD I think is the brand the driver quite liked it and it pains to write this, it was pretty snazzy we really need to get our shit together and pull our heads out of the sand.
Nonsense. With Teslas multiple cameras it can respond to more scenarios and quicker than any human. Plus it still requires driver supervision. The best of both worlds.
Commissars never do.
It’s a fad propped up by government subsidies. Once Uncle Sugar stopped the freeloading, sales slowed and corporate CEOs woke up. Never under-estimate the stupidity of your “fellow man.”
Silver Core batteries might be the breakthrough that could help the EV industry:
From AI:
“Samsung has achieved a significant breakthrough in solid-state battery technology, utilizing a silver-carbon (Ag-C) composite layer in the anode to solve long-standing challenges like dendrite formation, which can compromise safety and lifespan in lithium metal batteries.
This innovation, first proposed in 2020 and recently validated in pilot production, enables a battery with a 600-mile range, 9-minute charging time to 80%, and a 20-year lifespan, with an energy density of 500 Wh/kg—nearly double that of current lithium-ion batteries.
The technology is now entering early production, with pilot lines operational and initial batches delivered to automakers for testing, marking a pivotal step toward commercialization.”
I’d like to thank the Soros ACME Coyote Grizzled Old Rioters Troupe for their excellent job of bringing down Tesla. Who’d ever thunk that wrinkled old, bearded geezers with gray hair and their husbands could every brought down Tesla and painted U.S. Federal Agents as Nazis with their box of worn down Crayolas.
Full Self Driving is awesome, dont believe the naysayers. I use it nearly every day and the stress relief is great, compared to texting, emailing and driving.
But not for the taxpayers who subsidize her costs. The taxpayer subsidy is not just the $7,500 federal credit (which recently expired) and additional credits at the state level. The feds and most states have yet to charge EV drivers with the equivalent of a gasoline excise tax that ICE drivers pay, to fund highway construction and maintenance and related infrastructure, even though EVs, because of their heavier weight, provide greater highway wear and tear than similar size/class ICE vehicles.
Just got a “Brake tag” sticker for my 2004 Honda Odyssey with 191,000 and no idiot lights....best van I have ever had and I paid barely 3 grand for it 4 years ago....This one will easily hit 300,000 K.....Insurance is 60 dollars a month for compulsory.....You smart people out there go ahead and buy you up a rolling computer or Golf cart and make your payments along with Option one Insurance....morons.
Remember that the first EV was created in 1888, it is now 2025, they have had 137 years and they still haven’t gotten it right....
Indeed. Start charging massive numbers of electric vehicles at night and that discrepancy will start to disappear.
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