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Posted on 12/11/2025 6:54:05 AM PST by delta7
It’s the Dawn of Perpetual Scarcity and a New Monetary Era”
Silver has experienced three spectacular bull runs over the past century, each driven by distinct macroeconomic, geopolitical, and supply-demand dynamics. Yet the present cycle is fundamentally different—a convergence of global mining stagnation and surging multi-sector demand threatens to ignite a much more consequential and potentially prolonged price explosion.
The Three Major Bull Runs
1970s Bull Run (1971–1980)
$1.30 → $50.00 → +3,746 % (≈ 37×) over 9 years
1970s run: final ~1.5 years = 80–90% of gains
The first great silver bull began in 1971, triggered by the collapse of the Bretton Woods gold standard, runaway inflation, and geopolitical crisis. Silver meandered for years, trading below $6 until late 1978. Then, within just 18 months, momentum exploded—rallying from $6 to nearly $50 per ounce as Hunt brothers’ speculation, a weakening dollar, and global instability coalesced. Roughly 80–90% of gains occurred in that brief parabolic period, revealing how silver can trade sideways for years before breaking upward in a frantic melt-up.
2000s Bull Run (2001–2011)
$4.00 → $49.80 → +1,145 % (≈ 11.5×) over 10 years
2000s run: final ~2 years = 80–90% of gains
Silver’s next major ascent began around 2001, with the metal languishing between $4 and $8 for several years. Gradual climbs followed, especially as de-dollarization themes and the 2008 global financial crisis fueled safe-haven demand. Yet it was only in the final two years, 2009–2011, when silver shot from $9 to $49.80—again, 80–90% of total gains happened fast, as central bank interventions and monetary debasement sent investors scrambling for tangible assets.
Current Bull Run (2020–2025)
$11.60 → $52.00 → +348 % (≈ 4.5×) so far over 5 years This run is unlikely to peak because it will likely just keep going up (given supply demand fundamentals and growing monetary use.)
Silver’s recent run arguably began at its COVID panic low in March 2020, bottoming near $11.60. Over five years, it has risen to about $52, a gain of roughly 348%, but only a fraction of previous blow-off moves. Importantly, this surge so far has been steadier, not yet having delivered the classic parabolic spike characteristic of prior bull runs. WARNING, we are not very close to the time we will see the 80% to 90% gains kick in and it is better to be early than late. This is something none of us can time.
Why This Time Is Different
Stagnating Global Mining Output
Globally, silver mine production is essentially flat, hovering around 820 million ounces per year—despite rising prices and technology. Large deposits are depleting, grades are declining, and new discoveries are increasingly rare. Meanwhile the Trump regime is poking at Mexico threatening to send in troops while the Morena party is moving closer to seizing control of their valuable silver deposits.
Unlike the 1970s and 2000s, the world’s geological bounty is failing to keep pace with demand, as capex and exploration remain subdued due to resource depletion then compounded by so called “sustainable” pressures, resource nationalism, and capital constraints.
Structural Deficit: Demand Far Outstrips Supply
Current supply-demand estimates suggest annual demand for silver is now running near 1.2 billion ounces, a deficit of roughly 400 million ounces versus new mining output. Secondary recovery (recycling) and stockpile drawdowns can only bridge this gap temporarily. The resulting shortfall is historically unprecedented, and, if sustained, threatens to exhaust above-ground inventories in the next two to three years—forcing a dramatic repricing regime as buyers scramble for scarce physical metal.
Technology-Driven Industrial Demand Shock
Unlike prior cycles, silver’s demand profile today is broader, more diverse, and less cyclical. New uses dominate:
Military and defense: Smart weapons, silver zinc batteries, silver-ion batteries, communications, surveillance. Electric vehicles: Silver is critical for contacts, sensors, wiring, and battery tech. Green energy: Photovoltaic solar (where silver is irreplaceable), wind, and grid modernization. Electronics, batteries, drones, robotics, AI data centers, 5G: All are rapidly scaling operations and need ultra-conductive silver material. Nuclear: Requiring silver for neutron absorbers and specialized electronics. This secular demand wave isn’t tied to traditional jewelry, coins, or speculative investment—meaning much of the new demand is price-insensitive, non-negotiable, and likely to accelerate regardless of financial market conditions.
Silver wasn’t Monetized in the 1970s and 2000s like today
During the 1970s and 2000s silver bull runs, the metal was not widely recognized or utilized as a monetary asset by governments or global financial institutions—its narrative was largely inflation hedge and industrial demand. Today, however, silver’s monetary role is rapidly resurging: Russia is reportedly considering adding silver to its central bank reserves, sovereign wealth funds are rotating capital into silver allocations, and India has begun permitting silver as collateral for loans—unprecedented moves that elevate silver’s official financial status and encourage institutional accumulation on a global scale. This marks a profound break from previous cycles.
Parabolic Phase: Are We There Yet?
History suggests that silver bull runs spend years ranging and climbing gradually, followed by a wild, compressed parabolic phase that drives the bulk of total returns in just 1.5–2 years. If the 2020 bottom marks the beginning of the current run, we are about five years in, but the recent move to $52—while impressive—is not yet the vertical explosion seen in past cycles’ final acts.
Given the scale of current deficits, mining stagnation, rapid technological adoption, monetary use and breadth of global demand, there is strong reason to believe the most dramatic leg of this bull run still lies ahead. In fact, this cycle could break historical patterns entirely, with persistent structural shortages forcing a “higher-for-longer” price regime and periodic price spikes as physical availability dries up.
More Thoughts
Silver’s prior booms were mostly about monetary crisis and speculative fervor; today’s run has fundamentals never seen before—chronic supply collapse, relentless new industrial uses, and a looming global inventory squeeze. While the next parabolic phase may mirror history’s final melt-ups, the underlying shortage and irreversible demand expansion mean this time really is different—and potentially much more consequential.
63.885
quote price arrow up+2.856 (+4.68%)
I have actively invested in silver since 2002.
Unlike the two prior silver booms when silver went above $50 and then crashed, this boom feels different.
My technicals that I rely upon show little reason for a crash as silver is now at $64 on the Mar 26 futures contract.
Chart: Silver spot compared to S&P 500:
https://curvo.eu/backtest/en/compare-indexes/silver-bullion-vs-sp-500?currency=eur
I am into the stock market, silver, bitcoin, and collectible coins. My stock market is done on CashApp and I have over 65 different stocks.
CashApp also lets me buy bitcoin.
I buy silver a bit at a time from coin dealers and online.
“The crypto XRP was designed from the ground up to be industrial”
industrial indeed: i’ve read that crypto XRP is a critical component in the powerful magnets used for EV motor/generators and a critical component in all computer motherboards ... without a good supply of the industrially important crypto XRP, the whole world economy would be in danger ...
The "Silver Academy" also features an Op-Ed saying that Trump is a pedo.
Works for me! Gonna cash in some silver and buy new windows for my house (we’ll install them ourselves) and a new/used smaller 4WD vehicle for myself. That F-150 is just too big for me. I can’t park it worth shiite and it’s a PITA for grocery shopping and getting in and out of it.
Been sitting on Silver for 20 years, now. I remember Dad doing handstands when it his $30/oz. Wish he were here to share it with me. :(
“I have talked about buying silver for several months now. I was mocked by several here on FR, but I have stuck with it.”
_______________________
I get mocked by some at my workplace. I don’t care.
We, my spouse and I, are debt free, mortgage free, maxing out our 401Ks, contributing to a brokerage account, have almost a year’s expenses in a HYSA and have been stacking for 20 months. None of the people that mock me have any one of those above-mentioned conditions. It’s not that I make more money than them or have a high combined household income. No, it’s because we live below our means and we save.
We view our metals not as an investment rather it is a place to park money. If metals crashed tomorrow, I wouldn’t be happy, but it would not make us homeless either. We are going to order 20 oz of silver tomorrow. This purchase will allow us hit our 2025 PM stacking goals. We started buying silver spot at $26.00/ounce, gold at $2600.00/ounce. Our philosophy is to have 15% of our portfolio in cash, 7% of that in a HYSA or money market, the other 8% in metals. Lose one and you are not crippled.
AI:
“Silver has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 in 2025, with prices rising over 110% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has only increased about 16.6%...”
Times are changing, drastically. This current PM bull run is just starting.
https://colemetalsgroup.com/tools/silver-vs-the-sp-500/
“Key Observation:
One of the most striking observations is that since the U.S. last achieved a balanced federal budget on September 30, 2000, gold has significantly outperformed both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones. This period has been marked by an explosion in the money supply and a steady erosion of the dollar’s purchasing power.
In reality, gold’s value has remained consistent, while the dollar’s devaluation has driven its price higher. This highlights gold’s role as a reliable hedge against inflation and monetary instability...”
Ya got me. I should not have copied/pasted the word "industrial".
XRP is designed to expedite cross-currency payments for those industrial purchases.
I'm not hyping XRP, just pointing out that not all crypto is equal.
So is the stock market.
The daily timeframe chart shows that the Trump Media stock price has been in a strong downward trend this year and has continued making a series of lower lows and lower highs
https://colemetalsgroup.com/tools/silver-vs-the-sp-500/
Sorry its DJT......(fat finger syndrome)
If you would like to be on the Gold & Silver PING LIST, please pm me.
The Gold & Silver Ping List covers the following:Everything Gold & Silver
Stock market investments in mining companies,
etc.
PING!
I wish I had been smarter with my money at a younger age. You are doing it right.
I am 64, no retirement or IRA, but house and cars are paid for, no credit cards. My wife passed away last year and I started getting serious about investing this year.
Since I have nothing else to do, investing is my new hobby where I spend my extra money. I am up 19% as of today in the stock market for the year. I have 100 ounces of silver, and many more collectible coins, many of them silver.
I just got an 1881 proof three cent coin. MS-65 grade. Nice!
Silver just went over $64 oz.
My mining stocks are up anywhere from 2% to 10%.
I’m finally net positive with the Silver I have purchased. My wife thinks I should sell it. I won’t, it is one of those things I will give to my descendents.
My wife thinks I should sell it. I won’t, it is one of those things I will give to my descendents.
Many messages in that, for the thinkers.
Same here. I don’t have much but maybe they will need it.
You made trades - worthless green-inked TP in exchange for priceless physical PM. Why on earth would you consider trading backwards?
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