Posted on 10/25/2025 5:55:42 PM PDT by Red Badger
Melissa strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane on Saturday and was forecast to bring "life-threatening and catastrophic" flash flooding and landslides to Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic early next week, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center warns.
Hurricane Melissa, the 13th named storm of the Atlantic season, isn't expected to have major impacts on the mainland United States, but it could be the strongest system this season.
Melissa's forecast and path
As of Saturday night, Melissa's core was about 130 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 260 miles west-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, the hurricane center said. Maximum sustained winds were 100 mph, with tropical storm-force winds extending some 160 miles from the storm's center. It was inching west at 3 mph.
Map shows the forecast path for Melissa, which is forecast to become a major hurricane in the Caribbean. CBS News Melissa was forecast become a major hurricane โ meaning a Category 3 or higher with winds of at least 111 mph โ by Sunday, and remain a major hurricane when it makes landfall in Jamaica early next week, the hurricane center said.
It was forecast to move near or over Jamaica during the weekend, and then near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week.
"It's going to intensify very rapidly," CBS News weather anchor Lonnie Quinn said Friday evening.
Jamaica, Haiti and eastern Cuba should brace for "catastrophic rainfall, up to nearly 3 feet of rain," Quinn said. "Mountainous terrain โ there's going to be mudslides. I am fearful for what we will find by the time we get into next week for this portion of the Caribbean."
On top of that, he warned, the storm could be packing 140 mile per hour winds.
"Jamaica, I think, is going to take the worst of it," Quinn said.
The storm is expected to continue its slow drift northwest through the weekend, then turn north towards Jamaica on Monday or Tuesday. It will then accelerate towards eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos in the middle of the week.
A satellite image of Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean taken at 7:40 p.m. Eastern Time on Oct. 25, 2025. NOAA/NESDIS/STAR Hurricane advisories A hurricane warning was in effect for Jamaica. A hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning were in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-au-Prince.
A hurricane watch was also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo and Holguin.
The Naval Station Guantanamo Bay said it has been moving "non-mission-essential" U.S. citizens off the island in groups ahead of severe weather from Melissa. They will all be evacuated no later than Sunday morning, the station said on social media.
"Each individual will be allowed one 40-pound bag and a carry-on item," the station's Facebook post said. "Stand by for more directions on when your zone will be called to the Windjammer to get orders."
"Spaghetti map" shows possible future paths for Melissa as the storm develops. Nikki Nolan / CBS News Rainfall forecasts Melissa is expected to drop up to 30 inches of rain on parts of southern Haiti, the southern Dominican Republic and Jamaica through Tuesday, with higher amounts possible in some areas, the hurricane center said. Eastern Cuba could see up to 18 inches of rain.
"Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica," forecasters said. Hispaniola is an island that includes Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Tuesday, the hurricane center said, but uncertainty remains about the more extended forecast.
Nikki Nolan and Rob Marciano contributed to this report.
PING!................
Worst case for Jamaica
Slow moving huge cat 4
Hitting from the south just west of Kingston
Highest Surge right in to the bay on the right side of the storm
Usually storms move east to west in that area so Kingston gets the offshore flow
We went on a mission trip to Jamaica a few years ago and built houses out of concrete blocks. I hope they hold up. The roofs are just tin and were made to blow off.
I just checked the BBC to see if the news about a catastrophic storm about to hit a member of the Commonwealth was of any interest to the Beeb...
Short answer...
Nope. Not a word.
NHC’s most recent forecast discussion in Melissa at link below...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/refresh/MIATCDAT3+html/250843.html
They will wait until they can get the disaster images from satellite...............
Sounds like there’s going to be A High Wind in Jamaica.
The UK’s Deep State clearly doesn’t give a damn.
Local reporting...
https://jamaica-star.com/article/news/20251024/port-royal-residents-staying-put-despite-storm
That’s not good news.
My wife is in Florida right now, so I’m glad the forecast track is going the way it is.
They will wait until they can get the disaster images from satellite...............
And then blame it on global warming, and Trump.
Dat is so, Mon!................
Good luck to any in the way of this, or any tropical storm.
I am happy (and smug) that once again, the forecasts for “another above average hurricane season” is coming to naught. I suppose someday the panic spreaders at NOAA and the media will be right. Maybe next year. The law of averages does have some influence, but if the “experts” predict high every year, even the averages won’t be enough.
I wish it would come up through Arkansas, I have no water for duck hunting. It will take a tropical system to save opening weekend and probably the first month.
Save me a couple of Mallards! I do miss me some wild duck
Now Cat 4.
More...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/refresh/MIATCDAT3+html/250843.html
Both with the 5 AM info.
Local coverage...
https://www.jamaicaobserver.com/2025/10/26/worstexpect-damage-gilbert-ivan-beryl-met-service-warns/
https://www.jamaicaobserver.com/2025/10/26/construction-concerns/
UK enemedia coverage...
https://www.itv.com/news/2025-10-26/jamaica-braces-as-hurricane-melissa-continues-to-strengthen
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