Posted on 09/03/2025 8:22:27 AM PDT by Tom Tetroxide
Are we living through the biggest market mania ever? In this hard-hitting update, Mike Maloney lays out why he believes today’s setup outstrips 1929 and the dot-com era—and why stocks and real estate could correct together.
Inside you’ll see: • The valuation dashboard (Buffett Indicator, Tobin’s Q, CAPE, P/B) and why “long-term averages” may be misleading when you add an extra century of data. • How index concentration, mega-cap cash-flow multiples, and extreme P/Es mirror late-stage bubbles. • Classic warning lights: Dow Transports diverging, insiders dumping, and a yield-curve signal with a track record before major selloffs. • Why housing weakness raises the stakes—and why Mike thinks gold & silver remain the outliers.
If you want a data-driven tour of today’s “almost everything” bubble—and practical takeaways for protecting your wealth—watch to the end.
Chapters
00:00 Bubble scoreboard across history
03:00 Buffett Indicator & “bubble century”
08:00 CAPE, Tobin’s Q, P/B—what’s elevated now
11:30 Dow Theory: Transports vs. the indices
13:40 Insider selling & yield-curve trigger
21:30 Stocks + housing: a dual risk
30:10 Why gold & silver may be next
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I bought a bunch of silver eight years ago and have more than doubled my money.. I would have bought gold.. but I have a hard time spending so much on such a tiny amount.
It’s Irrational, I know..
I regularly buy silver, but these kind of articles on youtube are just stupid. I have been seeing these for at least 2 years and they probably go back further than that.
Yes silver is going up, but these hysterical videos are for fools.
I was telling everyone in 2006 that a crash was coming....even here on FR and I was ridiculed for it.
Silver fell over 36% in 2013. It has had bigger falls before. Your chart does not show that like tidbit.
And I am a silver buyer. Hyping silver and failing to remeber the past could cost you.
Thats why you only buy from coin dealers at a small spot over the daily.
To buy 3 one ounce gold coins now would be $10,000
I worked at a bank. We introduced “real time approval” for Home Equity Loans in 1997. We were one of the first to do it over the phone. I had no idea how any of this stuff worked.
A couple years later I went to the President of the Bank and told him how people wanted 100%-125% (of equity) loans because home prices were exploding. Other banks were offering them, but we stuck with 80% loans. We were losing business.
He looked at me and said, “This is all going to end badly. We probably shouldn’t be doing 80%, but here we are.” And then he went on to explain how all of this stuff was going to caused a bubble in all of the markets.
At the time, publicly traded banks were under significant pressure to keep earnings very high—and this was one way to do it: Write a mortgage, collect all the fees, and sell them before you had to service it. Rinse and repeat.
We couldn’t keep up and remain “sane.” We were sold in 2003. But I watched the failures of 2008 and thanked God I had moved most of my investments into more secure products.
I have the same feeling today. I’ve seen the value of my home increase about 25% in the last couple of years. And even now, when the market is easing…it is up about 10% this year alone.
We are approaching another “winter season” financially. The same number of people are ignoring the “screams.”
I am starting to worry also. This time the explosion of illegals are a major reason for the rise in prices.
As we deport and make more leave, it should put some downward pressure on the market. Whether it crashes or not remains to be seen.
Your boss was a very smart man. He could see where it was heading way before many of the rest of us.
I’m just hanging on to my PMs for now. I don’t NEED anything, and the farm and crop land are all paid off, as are all vehicles, etc. No debt other than on a six-wheel side-by-side Beau bought for bear hunting, but he’s got the cash to pay that down quick. It’s not ‘financed’ he used a HELOC and it is already halfway paid off. He hates debt and he also hates to part with a buck, so I’m not sure how all that’s working for him, LOL!
Someone mentioned property values going up. We were just re-assesed and got a hefty bump up on the value of the farm, pasture, woods and crop land. It remains to be seen if our property taxes increase, though we live in a small ‘township’ that’s not in need of anything right now other than maybe another snow plow. ;) We really have no expensive ‘services’ (fire, police, water, sewer, trash) to pay for, either. You’re basically on your own if disaster strikes.
But, we also have no neighbors or City Folks breathing down our necks, so it’s a trade-off. :)
I was doing the same thing
What secure products today?
Gold, silver, money markets, and paid off most of my debt and finally, reduced my exposure to the stock markets.
That was about as secure as you could get at the time.
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