Posted on 02/20/2025 10:52:28 PM PST by Reverend Wright
The counterinsurgency “forever wars” in the Middle East, once seen as the future of warfare in the era of global American dominance, are now remembered only as blunders. The war in Ukraine has marked a return to very old-fashioned industrial warfare between large-scale, conscript armies, something which few military planners in Washington ever saw coming before the fact. To add to these rising threats, China is now engaged in a process of naval rearmament that is putting the late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century naval arms races to shame.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanaffairsjournal.org ...
It can't be fixed by "reforms". China has established an unassailable lead, and the only cure is for the USA to downsize the Empire.
China has established an unassailable lead, and they
did it the easy way-—by stealing American know-how.
BTTT
that’s on technology.
But the industrial capacity and shipbuilding capacity, that is not particularly new technology. China is on a construction spree which is like the USA in WW2 - for example a new shipyard in 5 months.
I have read that between the time China joined the World Trade Organization and 2017 or so, the number of factories moved from the USA to China was at least 50,000. They were handed the technology on a silver platter. When it came time to produce artillery shells to compete with Russia, the USA was just not capable of keeping up.
Needs to go viral........”between the time China joined the World Trade Organization and 2017 or so, the number of factories moved from the USA to China was at least 50,000. They were handed the technology on a silver platter.”
This problem was solved nicely on November 5, 2024.
Since then, all services have met or exceeded their recruitment goals.
We're hearing seemingly conflicting reports on this.
On the one hand, it's said there will be a massive increase in US Navy shipbuilding capacity, necessary to increase the fleet to 350 ships.
On the other hand, it appears there will be significant across-the-board downsizing and DOGE-sizing.
It's said that national defense spending will go from 3.3% of GDP down to 3% of GDP.
Will all the reductions be only in "waste, fraud & abuse"?
We'll see.
Where there's a will, there's a way.
The issue is, do we still have the will?
For as long as I can remember, some people have claimed that US aircraft carriers are now made obsolete by whatever the newest technology of the day has been.
And yet, since WWII, US carriers have visibly dominated the oceans like nothing else, always matching the latest threats with even better technology.
Still, they remain hugely expensive to build, operate and maintain.
The answer is as simple and obvious as the nose on your face -- even though many can't seem to see it.
Money.
When Pres. Jimmy Carter gave away the store (i.e., Panama) and nearly lost the Cold War, he had reduced defense spending to a mere 4.5% of GDP, down from nearly 10% during the Vietnam War.
Pres. Ronald Reagan won the Cold War by increasing defense to 6% of GDP.
Today, Pres. Trump tells the Euros they must increase their defense from 2% to 5% of their GDPs.
Today, under Pres. Biden, US defense spending is around 3.3% of US GDP.
Under Pres. Trump, the only word I heard from Sec. Hegseth is that he intends to reduce that to 3% of GDP, while somehow increasing "lethality".
Of course, pretty much any military can be adequate, so long as it never has to deter or fight a war...
We'll see.
I remember seeing a retired general years ago on Johnny Carson saying that we could greatly reduce cost by relying primarily on nuclear weapons. For example, after 9/11, just nuke Kabul. No carriers, no troops, and certainly no nation building.
Our whole entire military focus was shifted from high intensity combat with a near peer adversary to supporting endless bush wars against ignorant savages embedded in civilian populations armed primarily with Ak-47s, light machine guns and RPGs.
We choose to fight these guys with expensive, high tech smart weapons that drained our military with massive sustainment costs to the almost total detriment of our ability to wage a high intensity war against a near peer adversary.
This freaking insanity culminated in the ruinous Obama 2012 Budget Sequestration debacle that saw pretty much every major non F-35 weapons development and procurement program get put on hold and headed for ultimate cancellation.
Draconian funding cuts allowed acquisition of only direct combat expenses for things like bullets , bombs, fuel and MREs . Even spare parts and maintenance were cut as far as practical.
All the while China was using an amazing espionage program to steal our weapons design and development technology wholesale and then used our stolen weapons technology to copy or reverse engineer our most advanced technology weapons capability and to implement the programs that we were canceling. Granted, we have a lot of black military programs that prevent us from knowing all that we have but our aging convemtioal forces are increasingly obsolete and wearing out.
Worse - they were designed to fight the Cold War do not reflect the capabilities needed to dominate the modern battle field .
Worst of all, our military warrior culture has been woosiefied with a risk aversive, liberal anti warrior ethos mind set and DEI focused reduction in basic standards.
I well remember, that's how Pres. Lyndon Johnson defeated Sen. Barry Goldwater (who was an Air Force General) in 1964 -- by claiming that Goldwater intended to start a nuclear war.
And there was some truth in it, since Goldwater had recommended we threaten to nuke Moscow if it didn't stop supporting the North Vietnamese.
Americans in 1964 were not willing to support threatening nuclear war against the Old Soviet Union:
1964 Daisy Girl ad defeated Goldwater in a landslide:
The USA military budget in 2024 was $840 billion.
I am not surprised - or even concerned - that we cannot defeat the Chinese navy - 7,000 miles across the Pacific Ocean.
On the flip side, I believe the Chinese Navy would be slaughtered if it attacked the coast of California.
Also, the claim that a huge share of USA weapons are obsolete or unavailable is just not credible.
You can buy a lot of temporary substitutes or solutions for $840 billion.
How does not matter.
“On the one hand, it’s said there will be a massive increase in US Navy shipbuilding capacity, necessary to increase the fleet to 350 ships.”
Who says that ?
Hegseth’s leaked memo list 17 protected categories. And a “350 ship” navy is not on it. “Executable” is not a 350 ship navy. They don’t currently have the shipyard capacity to properly maintain what they have.
https://x.com/JackDetsch/status/1892563575413113158
Carriers are great until we get in a real shooting war with a major power.
At that moment they will be ridiculously easy targets to hit and annihilate.
“No plan survives first contact with the enemy.”
USA manufacturing employment fraction peaked at 32 percent in the early 1950’s.
If it was still 30 percent (like china is) US manufacturing would be approx 45 million, not 13 million
https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-9/forty-years-of-falling-manufacturing-employment.htm
Reverend Wright: "Who says that ?
Hegseth’s leaked memo list 17 protected categories.
And a “350 ship” navy is not on it.
“Executable” is not a 350 ship navy.
They don’t currently have the shipyard capacity to properly maintain what they have."
Sec. Hegseth intends to squeeze $50 billion out of the military's $840 billion budget = 8%.
Congress is planning to increase defense spending by circa $200 billion, to over $1 trillion per year.
To me, that looks like an extra $250 billion per year.
If only 1/3 of that $250 billion goes to the US Navy, it will add over $80 billion per year, which is more than enough to pay for increasing ship-building capacities to levels needed for reaching the 355 manned ships, plus 134 unmanned ships, goals.
This summary is from several years ago, but is still roughly what's being presented as of January 2025:
March 19, 1945: USS Franklin (CV-13) on fire after kamikaze attack:
Sure, the same as they were during WWII.
During WWII, the US lost 12 aircraft carriers sunk, including 5-fleet carriers, 1-light carrier and 6-escort carriers.
In addition, many other carriers suffered major damage requiring extensive repairs.
So, any suggestion that all US aircraft carriers will survive a war unscathed is ridiculous.
Regardless, US aircraft carriers were still essential to victory in the Pacific, and to victory in the Atlantic U-boat war, just as they would be in any future conflict with China.
Finally, all of the fleet carriers sunk in WWII came in the war's early years, none in the final two years, despite devastating Kamikaze attacks on many.
One reason is that newer carriers were built tougher to withstand increasing punishment.
Another reason is the use of destroyer "picket ships" used to shoot down Kamikazes before they could reach the fleet carriers.
So, bottom line -- while no carrier is invulnerable, they are all very tough and very well defended.
August 8, 2021: USS Ford (CVN-78), shock trials:
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