Posted on 11/02/2024 6:21:22 AM PDT by MtnClimber
I don’t think we want to become a woke, nut-job nation.
This is just one of many reasons why Harris should lose the election. If this were 1980, I would be quite confident of a Trump victory.
Video
FLASHBACK: Kamala says “We have to stay woke. Like everybody needs to be woke.”
https://rumble.com/v59tr2y-flashback-kamala-says-we-have-to-stay-woke.-like-everybody-needs-to-be-woke.html
With Democrats in charge we ARE a nation RUN by WOKE NUT-JOBS!!!
she’s right. interesting that everyone is finally waking up to the evil that the liberal democrats want to instill and install . “Don’t be evil” applies.
Seems wishful thinking. From the evidence I see, Kamala is on track for winning easily.
The cheat is on. PA,GA,WI,MI,AZ will all be stolen.
I hope you're right, but we'll see on Tuesday.
Yet, the race is neck-and-neck. If the looney left's positions on all these issues is so repugnant to most Americans and the Democrat party IS the looney left, then how are the Dems getting close to 50% of the electorate? Why aren't the Dems closer to that 8% level of the woke? Are the 42 points of the electorate (50% minus 8%) so STUPID they don't know or see what's going on? Can they not comprehend where the looney left would take us?
I don’t think we want to become a woke, nut-job nation.
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Too late. We are there. I’m hoping this election marks a distinct cultural shift, but if not...well...it’s been a nice run. The USA may not have lasted as long as Rome, Egypt, or any of the other great civilizations, but the Great Experiment sure did give it the ol’ college try.
Now fast forward a few days and she is calling DT a fascist. I think a good ad would be to paste a clip of her saying 'DT is a fascist' beside her Commonweath Club remarks and then ask, "Who is the real fascist here?"
Remember Joe was bragging about "Bidenomics"?
But he was getting mocked for it.
What evidence is that?
Here are some contrarian indicators I have on my radar:
1. RCP averages - She leads in MI and WI, while he leads in PA, just narrowly. PA is now the must-win for Trump. VA and NH and NM are pipe dreams for him. Whereas NC is not a pipe dream for her.
2. 55-45 female-male voting ratio in early voting. This may be a misleading indicator and may correct itself on election day, but all polls had a 52-48 or 51-49 turnout model.
3. Multiple recent gaffes from the Trump campaign (comedian, comments against Liz Cheney, etc.) whose fallout is reverberating on social media. The Biden/Harris campaign gaffes and fallout are well covered here. But the Trump gaffes are ignored or downplayed. They are having an effect, like the Biden gaffe, and perhaps may cancel each other out.
4. The hidden Harris voter. While pollsters have had 3 election cycles and 8 years to improve their Trump forecast models, they only have had 3 months for Harris voter polling. It is possible they are missing some Harris voters on the fringe. On the other hand, the likelihood of polls again underpredicting Trump support like they did in 2016 and 2020 is nearly zero. And it is possible some polls are actually "overpredicting" Trump's strength by overcompensating for past poll misses.
5. Trump's own schedule - he is doubling down on rallies in NC. This state looks very tentative for him, other signs notwithstanding.
6. Dem ballot harvesting machine is second to none. We have no comparable ground game, except to complain about fraud afterwards.
Having said all that, I hope he wins, but people here chest thumping and being certain about him getting 312 EVs or 322 EVs etc. are repeating the same mistake people here have made in 2006, 2008, 2012, 2018, 2020, and 2022.
Items:
2020 was a 52/48 women men ratio at the end of the election. Early voting was 56% in 2020. This is less than this year.
As for outperforming the polls, the most significant difference of 2020 vs 2024 is the Census Bureau was corrupted when the Biden Administration appointed people to it in 2021. The Census is the basis for many polling parameters in the turnout models. Those numbers WERE changed after the census tabulation was complete. So polling influence will be there, and it will not reflect reality. This nearly ensures overperformance by Trump.
Early voting has been huge. This renders recent events more and more insignificant. The votes were already cast from anyone whose mind might be affected by those events.
clarifying, the women/men ratio of 2020 early voting was 56%/44%. The final ratio closed.
Right. The early voting breakdown this year of men / women is slightly better for the GOP than it was in 2020.
More importantly, the biggest increase in women voters looks to be coming from Red areas.
So, if men show up in the expected numbers on Tuesday, Trump should win.
We made a 70-mile trip in Texas Tuesday.
Yard sign count:
Trump/Vance: 100+
Cruz: 70+
Harris: 2 [TWO!] (in separate towns...)
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Apparently, you live in a different demographic environment...
Whether most folks “wake up” or not, the algorithm and the vote harvesters are not affected. The bit of panic in the Party will mean that the voting machine algorithms will be set to higher and higher ratios.
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