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2020 was a 52/48 women men ratio at the end of the election. Early voting was 56% in 2020. This is less than this year.
As for outperforming the polls, the most significant difference of 2020 vs 2024 is the Census Bureau was corrupted when the Biden Administration appointed people to it in 2021. The Census is the basis for many polling parameters in the turnout models. Those numbers WERE changed after the census tabulation was complete. So polling influence will be there, and it will not reflect reality. This nearly ensures overperformance by Trump.
Early voting has been huge. This renders recent events more and more insignificant. The votes were already cast from anyone whose mind might be affected by those events.
clarifying, the women/men ratio of 2020 early voting was 56%/44%. The final ratio closed.