Posted on 10/27/2024 1:19:34 PM PDT by simpson96
Not only have polls and prediction markets tilted recently toward Donald Trump winning the presidential election, they are also pointing to Republicans flipping the Senate and retaining control of the House.
A GOP sweep would give Trump a freer hand to enact his agenda. While U.S. presidents have broad authority on immigration and tariffs, changes to tax and spending policies would require congressional approval.
The latest polling analysis from 538 gave Trump a 53-in-100 chance of winning the election versus 47 out of 100 for Kamala Harris. It also gave Republicans an 87-in-100 chance of taking the Senate majority away from Democrats and a 53-in-100 chance of holding the House.
Prediction markets are showing similar odds for Congress and wider odds for the White House. According to Kalshi, Trump has a 62% chance of winning the presidential election, with the GOP’s odds of winning the Senate and House at 85% and 52%, respectively.
Meanwhile, the new IBKR Forecast Trader from Interactive Brokers puts Trump’s odds of victory at 63%, while Democrats have just 13% odds of holding the Senate and 48% of flipping the House.
That’s a sharp reversal of fortune from the summer, when Kamala Harris and Democrats were riding a wave of enthusiasm after she took over the top of the ticket from President Joe Biden. Top pollster Frank Luntz attributed the loss of momentum to her campaign’s shift in strategy toward a more anti-Trump message and away from a pro-Harris one.
(Excerpt) Read more at fortune.com ...
You think they should let him out?
I hope so but I’ll believe it when I see it. We heard the same thing in 2022. But if it happens, I am going to so enjoy watching MSNBC election coverage this year. I
At least this time, hopefully, the people who don’t like Trump will just stay home.
We’ve heard this all before.
Get your behinds out there and vote, we need every single possible vote to even have a chance at overcoming the steal.
“This is DJT fighting his way over the finish line in first place with several reps and senators riding on his back.”
Exactly correct—and they better remember who saved their rear ends....
“His promises to hike tariffs across the board and begin mass deportations of undocumented immigrates are also seen as inflationary, potentially adding pressure on the Fed to keep rates higher for longer.”
Yeah. Not having to spend billions on illegals is inflationary. Isn’t Fortune supposed to be a financial magazine? Just like Business Insider which is nothing but leftist garbage.
Can’t pack it if you don’t have the house to pass it
Amen to that.
Look for the following:
1. Another assassination attempt.
2. Lawfare. Convictions as basis for impeachment. More criminal charges.
3. Anyone near Trump - like Musk - being indicted both here and abroad. The “Rudy Treatment.”
4. Riots monitored and controlled by the Deep State in major cities as J6 approaches.
5. Continued 24/7 MSM meltdown to not ‘normalize’ a Trump presidency.
6. Obstruction by every agency.
7. Targeting of anyone supporting Trump.
8. Lawfare to prevent illegals from being deported.
Don’t underestimate the Democrats ability to steal enough Electoral College votes to get Kamala into the White House.
Question is, is Kamala worth the effort?
If you don't vote, I'm coming after you with my Wouff Hong.
“”””However, prepare for the “mostly peaceful” reaction by the left.””””
It will be so nuts that it should be very interesting for those of us who aren’t in the line of fire although horrible for the people who are victims of the lefts weapon of mass destruction, fire, and of course all of us will pay higher prices related to the destruction and looting.
What will be interesting is that this time we well see various strong counter measures from the Trump administration and state governments and that could get really messy.
No. I’ve heard nothing about a red wave. Don’t believe this. Get out and vote.
This is why I remain cautiously optimistic. Trump seems to have the vibes right now. He's acting like a winner. Four years ago, he was angry and defiant. Today, he's all smiles, jokes, and full of confidence. It's Kamala who is angry and defiant.
Why do the vibes matter? Because there's a not insignificant number of voters out there who aren't really interested in politics and only vote because they believe they have a civic duty to do so. In the end, they're going to come out for the candidate who they perceive is winning as to not vote for a loser.
Anyhow, we're going to know early on how the race is going to turn out when these small districts on the Eastern Time Zone come through with their numbers and bounce these numbers against 2020 and 2016. If Trump is crushing it in these small districts, besting his previous elections, it's going to be a very good night.
Very good point. Trump needs long coattails.
Polling doesn’t mean much. Counting is where the action is.
We need to expand the margin in the House almost as much as we need the White House. We can’t expect to govern when any three idiots can bring down the leadership. There are way more than three idiots in the caucus, and they sort into factions that are at each other’s throats.
I expect that the democrats are already quietly discussing a party switch with a few of the RINOs, if the margin is close enough to flip the House. Some of them might get disgusted enough to do it if the caucus can’t hang together.
And no: getting everyone to pledge to simply take dictation from Trump’s twitter account is not a solution.
Eventually, that was going to have an impact on the election.
The MAGA faithful is not going to vote for an Assistant Democrat like Kevin McCarthy.
The thing is, it only gets messy for a few days. If authority starts shooting these insurgents in force, they will back down and crawl back into their holes like the cockroaches they are. If authority responds weakly, like last time, they will grow stronger and stronger.
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