Posted on 10/23/2024 11:24:17 AM PDT by simpson96
Former President Donald Trump is on track to defeat Vice President Kamala Harris in Texas next month, according to a range of recent polls, which put the Republican presidential nominee ahead by between 4 and 12 percentage points.
The surveys undermine the claims by some Democrats that Texas, traditionally a GOP stronghold, could be in play. Former gubernatorial candidate Beto O'Rourke, in a recent interview, described it as "the sleeper battleground state."
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
Donald Trump’s chances of losing Texas are slimmer than the chances of me waking up with a full head of hair tomorrow morning on my bald head.
Newsweak, the Dems, and the Left are a-hopin’.
I think they and the devil lose, and Trump, America, and God wins in 2024.
Donald Trump has a slim chance of losing Texas, but Ted Cruz has a very strong chance of losing his Senate seat to Colin Allred, which is why Harris is campaigning in Texas.
It’s to flip a Senate seat from Red to Blue.
Allred bombed at the debate. I don’t think Cruz is in much trouble.
Only 12%? How is this happening in Texas?
Does it matter? Really. If he loses Texas he loses all the states.
Trump won Texas by 9% in 2016 and 5.5% in 2020. Texas is going to fall soon unless they start mimicking the effort of DeSantis in FL. You have to go back to 2004 for a GOP win bigger than 12% in Texas.
Trump is not losing Texas.
Kamala is closing with an abortion rally in Texas. Maybe the vacuum vans will be there.
Not what i’m hearing. I have a buddy in Dallas and when i saw threads here on FR about the polls being close i asked if Cruz was going to win, his reply was “its a lock.”
“Donald Trump has a slim chance of losing Texas, but Ted Cruz has a very strong chance of losing his Senate seat to Colin Allred, which is why Harris is campaigning in Texas.”
Not sure it’s a “strong” chance — Cruz is still slightly favored — but the rest is spot-on.
Trump should win TX by 5 points or so, while Cruz will be lucky to win by 2 or 3 just as he did last time.
Kalifornians and illegals.
outside of Austin’s Red Zone, it doesn’t seem likely that President Trump could lose TX
Texans, for all the joking, are usually very bright about important things
Everything i read over the summer stated the latinos in the blue southern part of Texas were seriously trending towards DJT- lets see what happens.
Blame California all you want, and there certainly are some bad voters coming from that state (I speak from experience). But transplants saved Cruz in 2018 against Beto, while Beto won with *native* Texans 51-48% in 2018 according to exit polls. The education system and large cities, along with the illegals, will eventually collapse Texas.
I cast my vote for Trump/Vance and Ted Cruz in Collin County this morning - lots of people, great turnout for early voting.
But...
All is not well in Texas.
We have been FLOODED by immigrants South of the border and transplants from California, Illinois and New York.
Both of these groups have no excuse for voting Democrat.
The Latino's in all reality are screwing themselves in that the open border policies push down their wages and burden services their families depend on. The criminal element which does exist is not moving to neighborhoods with million dollar homes, but moves in right among them. Besides, almost all of these nations South of the border are ultra liberal, nearly socialist. These nations have failed or marginal economies. Why would someone vote for the same junk they fled from?
As to the transplants, they also for the most part fled states with horrible social policies, high crime and/or taxes. Why run away from a place but then go to some new place and support the same policies which made where you came from a “$hit hole?” The transplants especially have no damn excuse since this dichotomy is something they should be well aware of.
That said, Texas does have a lot of people that vote blue today and that is especially true in the cities where most of the Latino and Transplant population has migrated to, where you have the universities, etc.
When you look at a map, everything looks good: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas#/media/File:Texas_Presidential_Election_Results_2020.svg
However, when you realize that the blue dots in that sea of red (much of Texas and many counties have small populations) are Austin, Dallas, and Houston (the big population centers), you suddenly realize that Trump took Texas in 2020 with 52%. It wasn't a landslide.
I remember a flight from Atlanta about 10 years ago. I sat next to a dude from California that hated Texas. We were able to have a conversation because I grew up in the same area of California.
As we were near DFW, he was surprised by the multitude of man made lakes. I told him the only natural lake is Lake Caddo in East Texas. My last remark was “I guess that means Texans are smarter than you think.”
Uh, no.
Let's take a look at the most recent six polls for Cruz:
According to my poll-based probabilistic model, the weighted average of all of the Texas Senate polls is Cruz 50.7 (+4.9) - Allred 45.8. The probability of Cruz winning is 87.3%.
If we revert the The Hill poll to last month's result, the weighted average of all of the Texas Senate polls becomes Cruz 50.6 (+4.5) - Allred 45.5. The probability of Cruz winning becomes 93.4%.
Based on the totality of the polls, Cruz is very much ahead in this race.
Regarding Trump v Harris...
My date-weighted poll average for Texas is Trump 52.6 (+7.7) - Harris 44.9. The probability of Trump winning Texas is 99.7%.
-PJ
Political genius beato odork? That’s who they’re getting comments from? 😂😂😂😂. 🖕beato.
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