[Yo-Yo]

Donald Trump has a slim chance of losing Texas, but Ted Cruz has a very strong chance of losing his Senate seat to Colin Allred, which is why Harris is campaigning in Texas.

It’s to flip a Senate seat from Red to Blue.

[Prince of Space]

Allred bombed at the debate. I don’t think Cruz is in much trouble.

[God luvs America]

Not what i’m hearing. I have a buddy in Dallas and when i saw threads here on FR about the polls being close i asked if Cruz was going to win, his reply was “its a lock.”

[PermaRag]

“Donald Trump has a slim chance of losing Texas, but Ted Cruz has a very strong chance of losing his Senate seat to Colin Allred, which is why Harris is campaigning in Texas.”

Not sure it’s a “strong” chance — Cruz is still slightly favored — but the rest is spot-on.

Trump should win TX by 5 points or so, while Cruz will be lucky to win by 2 or 3 just as he did last time.

[Political Junkie Too]

Donald Trump has a slim chance of losing Texas, but Ted Cruz has a very strong chance of losing his Senate seat to Colin Allred...

Uh, no.

Let's take a look at the most recent six polls for Cruz:

1. The Hill/Emerson College (10/18-10/21): Cruz 48.2 (+1.5) - Allred 46.7

2. ActiVote (10/1-10/16): Cruz 52.8 (+5.6) - Allred 47.2

3. Marist College (10/3-10/7): Cruz 51.0 (+5.0) - Allred 46.0

4. University of Texas (10/2-10/10): Cruz 51.0 (+7.0) - Allred 44.0

5. University of Houston (9/26 - 10/10): Cruz 50.0 (+4) - Allred 46.0

6. New York Times/Siena College (9/29-10/4): Cruz 48.0 (+4.0) - Allred 44.0

The question is whether today's The Hill/Emerson poll is an outlier or indicative of a tightening race. Their prior poll from 9/22-9/24 was Cruz 49 (+5) - Allred 44.

According to my poll-based probabilistic model, the weighted average of all of the Texas Senate polls is Cruz 50.7 (+4.9) - Allred 45.8. The probability of Cruz winning is 87.3%.

If we revert the The Hill poll to last month's result, the weighted average of all of the Texas Senate polls becomes Cruz 50.6 (+4.5) - Allred 45.5. The probability of Cruz winning becomes 93.4%.

Based on the totality of the polls, Cruz is very much ahead in this race.

Regarding Trump v Harris...

My date-weighted poll average for Texas is Trump 52.6 (+7.7) - Harris 44.9. The probability of Trump winning Texas is 99.7%.

-PJ