I don’t want to alarm you, but Trump was up 52 to 47 on the Polymarket.com betting site.
Post Debate, the result is now tied: 49 to 49
On ElectionBettingodds.com, Trump was up 50.2 to 48.7 prior to the debate. Post debate ( as of this writing ), it is Kamala 51.5 and Trump 47.0. A huge reversal.
Apparently the betting markets thought that Kamala won the debate.
If I'm Trump, I'll fly to Auora next. To seize the initiative. Then the border after that.
Or that people would accept the 3-against-1 brawl rather than strongly object.
Or thought that the Taylor Swift endorsement of Kamala would make a difference.
Harris plus her to besties at ABC managed to drag her over the finish line without her answering any hard questions about her California liberal views.
Thanks for the info, even though I don’t like it.
Stock market, which is much bigger and more liquid than the little being markets, thinks Trump won. (Historically, stocks weaken before an incumbent loses because markets hate uncertainty.)
In the General/Chat forum, on a thread titled Why did the stock in Donald J. Trump Media (DJT) jump after hours by almost $1 per share?, SeekAndFind wrote: I don’t want to alarm you, but Trump was up 52 to 47 on the Polymarket.com betting site.
Post Debate, the result is now tied: 49 to 49
On ElectionBettingodds.com, Trump was up 50.2 to 48.7 prior to the debate. Post debate ( as of this writing ), it is Kamala 51.5 and Trump 47.0. A huge reversal.
Apparently the betting markets thought that Kamala won the debate.
https://electionbettingodds.com/WIN_chart_maxim_lott_john_stossel.html
I think that Website is used to try to sway the election. Look at the odds they claimed for Clinton in 2016:
Kamalas’ remarks sounded more like someone trying to get kids to join summer camp:
“We are going to have so much fun....”
the betting markets are likely full of all sorts of people, many swayed by emotion or shiny object/moment, lacking in real substance or truth.
betting markets are not like lie detectors or facing the law, so people sway them as they wish.
that you want to promote them as an indicator, I don’t know why, they really don’t mean a lot, it’s just a place to make money, maybe.
Don’t have any experience with betting markets, but when I’ve traded stocks I’ve noticed a stock might go down after a good earning report or up after a bad one. Think this is due to the market already anticipating how good or how bad the report will be. Perhaps the betting odds are telling us that gamblers anticipated Harris doing worse than she did, but they are not necessarily telling us she did well. Still they favor Harris at the moment overall. But then they are unlikely to stay still...
That may be the case, but such markets are also manipulated for propaganda purposes. Just like public polls.
(I didn’t watch it, but the reports I’m seeing don’t sound great.)
Betting markets are odds driven. They make money on the Vig. They have to even out the bets for each person or team so the losers pay the winners and they get the 10%.