Posted on 09/06/2024 12:43:05 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
This week my colleague David Brooks and I offered dispatches from two different futures: One in which Kamala Harris edges out Donald Trump for the presidency, and one in which Trump is victorious. I wrote the “How Harris Wins” narrative, exploring a scenario in which the Democratic nominee succeeds in her effort to Marie Kondo-fy progressive politics, tidying things up by reducing the Democratic agenda to just a few popular components, and letting that simplified, joy-sparking platform expose the internal tensions of the Republican Party’s coalition of the discontented.
That’s a vision of what could happen, and I think that Harris has a good chance to win in exactly the way that I describe. But if you forced me to place a bet on what will happen, my current expectations are closer to the scenario offered by my colleague — in which Trump, not Harris, is the next president of the United States.
One might argue that the safest way to bet is simply not to make one. As of this writing Harris leads slightly in one of the popular betting markets, PredictIt, and Trump in another, Polymarket; in other words, for people making real wagers, it’s a tossup. The RealClearPolitics polling average in Pennsylvania, the most likely decisive state, is a tie. The election forecaster Nate Silver’s complex model gives Trump a 60 percent chance of victory — but the forecasting at his former home, FiveThirtyEight, thinks Harris has a 57 percent chance of winning.
All this looks like the very definition of a coin-flip election. So why do I expect the coin to fall Trump’s way? Three reasons, none of them completely rigorous, and all of them shadowed by the fact that I was wrong in 2016 (when I expected Trump to...
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
dream on. Trump ain’t gonna win.
Joy does not compensate for you at the grocery store.
Joy does not compensate for you at the gas station.
Joy does not pay your mortgage with its increased insurance and tax escrow payments.
Joy does not make your car payment, nor the insurance to cover it.
Go on. Have your giggly-girl moment with that absolute moron and her lying running mate. You’ll be wondering why that feeling doesn’t last longer than it takes to get to the parking lot.
Join the other side. We don't need your surrender-monkey kind.
Nah. The election was close enough so they could get away with stuffing ballot boxes in a couple of counties in battleground states.
If Harris isn’t leading by 5-8 points by now, she’s running behind Trump.
Black female lib crying. She's knocking on doors in Detroit and they say they are voting for Trump.
Bkmk
No I won’t. And stop saying “we”—you don’t speak for anyone except for yourself.
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