Posted on 09/05/2024 5:48:24 AM PDT by Red Badger
Historian Allan Lichtman has finally revealed his prediction for the 2024 election winner, after determining that Kamala Harris has met the critical objectives for victory.
The American University professor, 77, has fashioned his own election model that has correctly forecast every presidential winner since 1984.
He relies on an unorthodox system - ignoring the polls and pundits - based on what he calls '13 keys' to the White House, a model he developed in 1981 alongside his geophysicist friend Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
The model is based on 120 years of presidential election outcomes and even enabled Allan to call Trump's unexpected 2016 victory a month before the election.
He then used his tactic to correctly predict the outcome in the 2020 elections.
Explaining the mysterious 13 keys to the New York Times, Allan said: 'They are 13 big picture, true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House party.
The 13 keys include: Midterm gains, incumbency, primary contest, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, White House scandal, incumbent charisma, challenger charisma, foreign policy failure, and foreign policy success.
Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate needs to lose six of them in order to be declared a loser under the model.
As of last month, she was down only three: having a Party Mandate/Midterm gains, Incumbency, and Incumbent Charisma.'
Two other keys were looking 'shaky' weeks ago: foreign policy and social unrest.
But Allan explained that only two of the 13 keys have anything to do with candidates - incumbent and challenger charisma.
Allan said the White House party gained House seats between midterm elections - stating the Democrats did better than expected in 2022 despite them still losing House seats - meaning the Midterm gains key is false.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
I agree!
I’m in Alabama. We’ll secede AGAIN rather than give up our rights. But rather than secede, our Red states will just not comply. The Fed Gov in DC can write all the Unconstitutional laws they like, but they have to come here to enforce them, and that will not go well for them if they try. It wouldn’t need citizens to rise up, as the State government might have to arrest a couple of federal agents first.
Just like how the Blue states arrested people for being outside and closing the economy during Covid, while the Red states defied them and left things open. DC and DNCMedia wailed and said you’re killing Grandma, but the Red states stayed open. And more Grandmas survived in Florida than closed down NY.
However, you say Blue cities have no guns—Correction—You mean legal guns. The cops have them, and all the criminals do. I would flee before I put myself into that kind of danger.
I haven’t been to a big city (Atlanta my nearest) since before Covid. I go to Montgomery or Birmingham because they have open carry now and I’ve had a concealed carry permit in the state for decades.
“However, you say Blue cities have no guns—Correction—You mean legal guns.”
Correct.
But many who insist on staying have bought guns. (where it is still possible)
Same is true in DC itself. And I suspect that some have relatives outside DC who can buy weapons, to only be brought across the city limits when the sky falls.
And with a much more skeptical and much angrier swath of voters, as well as much better prepared people to expose any cheat.
I saw the other day where an organization has now installed video cameras with streaming video to monitor drop boxes so as to preclude people from stuffing them with fake votes.
It's gonna be harder to cheat, and harder to make people believe the nation wants that cackling idiot.
People give him far too much credit for his past predictions. Most of the elections he got right were just not very hard to predict. And the guy is nuts anyway.
Guess they showed nostradamas his manilla folder.
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