Posted on 08/11/2024 10:41:19 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
Trump will draw 20-30% of the black vote this year.
That is still 75% Dem, and pollsters decided they would increase the black turnout in their models and have that 75% add a lot of votes.
But the electorate is only 13% black and they will not all turn out. The key is for Lara Trump’s RNC staff in Atlanta make damn sure black males turn in their VBM ballots. That means door to door, with well paid black staff.
Yep
Not a chance. Maybe 20-30% at best of black men. Kamala will get 98% of the votes from black women, and they have much higher turnout numbers than black men do.
Trump needs to engage the 24 million white working-class men who aren't even registered to vote. This is his base. He should worry about nobody else. Get these men to the polls. And if this requires dog whistles, who cares.
The Democrats are allowed to have their shameful "white dudes for Kamala" zoom calls. Trump should do the same.
The most powerfully arranged pro Harris polling out the past week has Trump 20-30% of blacks. Not black men. Blacks.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-harris-trump-cbs-news/
scroll to black voters 18%
https://issuesinsights.com/2024/08/05/trump-harris-neck-and-neck-but-her-post-biden-honeymoon-with-voters-might-not-last-ii-tipp-poll/ also 18% in the text
https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9c0934f2-406d-4e2c-9a29-762891f12cda 19%
These are all left adjusted turnout models and Trump black support, total, is doubled 2020. He’ll get 20-30%
We'll see.
I remember in 2008 when everyone said blacks would not vote for Obama because he wasn't a "Foundational Black American" (i.e., no ancestral link to American black slavery). Turned out blacks flocked to vote for Obama. I expect black women will come home to Harris in November.
Anyhow, I'd love to be proven wrong on this.
Still though, I think Trump needs to focus 100% of his GOTV efforts on getting working-class white men to the polls.
I will put some time into the working class white men numbers and if that is an untapped resource.
ChatGPT: What % of white men are registered to vote?
About 70% of white men are registered to vote. This is higher than other groups.
What % of those are working class?
Difficult to answer. Definition of working class will vary. A general estimate would be 60%.
What % of these actually turn out to vote?
50-60%
What % of women turn out to vote?
Varies presidential vs mid-term. About 63% presidential
So the math works.
U.S. population currently at 333.3 million. 61% of these are white/non Hispanic aged 18 or older. 50% are men.
Now we're down to 101 million white adult men.
60% of these 101 million are working class, so rounded to 60 million white working class men.
50-60% registered to vote so that leaves us 24-30 million white working class men who are not currently registered.
If Trump could get 5 million of these men from not registered at all to registered and committed to voting for Trump, this would be a major game changer.
She’s like 1/8th black. Knock yourselves out
She’ll increase the price of chicken and you’ll be screwed
White liberals trapped in black bodies.
“She’s a quarter black and half Indian. So tell me why she’s now BLACK?”
Why? Southern Democrats who marched with the KKK. It was that old one drop of blood BS they conjured up. They marched in robes and hoods but their shoes gave them away.
She is a kamlian
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