Posted on 08/06/2024 9:12:52 PM PDT by Lod881019
https://www.npr.org/2024/08/05/nx-s1-5061729/harris-trump-swing-states-electoral-map With all the doom and gloom over polls showing Kamala with a lead by a few points in the popular vote Donald is in excellent shape to win this currently according to NPR at 268 electoral votes. Putting this in context on this day in 2016 Hillary lead by 4.5 points and in 2020 Joe lead by 9 points. We kinda know how those both went.
Thanks, but the momentum is clearly with Kamala. The Trump 268 map is surprisingly optimistic, coming from NPR. I am not so sure about Trump’s chances in NV and AZ. With the positive momentum, I expect her to be up for a while. We will see after Labor Day when the polls start showing the real post-convention bounce picture.
The polls are designed to make the race seem close so the steal doesn’t look so bad. That’s where we are headed.
That was one of the more cogent, illuminating posts I’ve read in a while. Thank you.
And allow me to clarify. It is vital that Trump’s Campaign fan out across tipping point states to understand THEIR concerns. We Pennsylvanians are hardly homogenous, but what helped him win in 2016 was a meat-and-potatos blue-collar message. That may not work as strongly in, say, Georgia, or Arizona. That can lead to tailoring, but in a way that can’t be seen as being opportunistic, like how Harris and Obama changed their accent to fit in with their audience.
Hence polling and testing it’s important, but these national polls are rather useless except for demoralizing or emboldening the electorate.
Think about the situation back in 2026. PaT Trump was trailing at this time in OH, FL and NC. Those States are out of play now.
I know my State. Radical does not play well here.
2016. Typing on the Train.
Don’t count on Michigan at all. So rigged.
Yes I agree. Remember Red Wave in 2020 thought we had won only to lose.
This is based on state-level polling. The national polls (plus the past 11 Presidential election results) are used for correlation purposes only.
-PJ
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