Trump still in excellent shape in the electoral college

NPR | NPR

[Lod881019]

https://www.npr.org/2024/08/05/nx-s1-5061729/harris-trump-swing-states-electoral-map With all the doom and gloom over polls showing Kamala with a lead by a few points in the popular vote Donald is in excellent shape to win this currently according to NPR at 268 electoral votes. Putting this in context on this day in 2016 Hillary lead by 4.5 points and in 2020 Joe lead by 9 points. We kinda know how those both went.

[Political Junkie Too]

I think it's doubtful, too, but videos of Harris calling President Trump "scared" to debate her won't help her cause if she refuses to debate.

-PJ

[MinorityRepublican]

The bottom line is this. Harris is too stupid to debate on Fox News. Her handlers won’t let her do it. So it won’t happen.

[desertsolitaire]

How manyvfaithless electors refused to cast their pledged vote to Trump in 2016?

[Owen]

More than zero

[Lod881019]

Knock yourself out chisel chest

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-31-july-3-august-2024/

[tsowellfan]

We’ll just work as if we’re 10 points behind.

The good news is, the people telling us Kamala is ahead are the same ones that told us just a few weeks ago that President Biden was as sharp as a tack.

[Paladin2]

“The Democrats count the votes in those states.”

Certainly in the Counties that matter.

[rarestia]

None of this matters. Polls don’t mean dick. The Dems just needed a candidate who could potentially beat Trump. It just has to be close. They don’t need to win, they just need to be within striking distance. That makes the perception of fraud much harder, because there’s a chance.

This isn’t about winning. It’s about showing up. The Democrats have turned “participation trophies” into winning. They’ve literally figured out how to polish a turd.

[nbenyo]

All the swing state polling is within the margin of error, neither side can be confident

[EQAndyBuzz]

Trump is winning NY.

[DoodleBob]

The polling isn’t important.

The proper discussion is around how to flip 38+ electoral votes, and retain the States won in 2020.

We NEED Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Pennsylvania (20), Georgia (16), Arizona (10) aor some combo theirin.

Minnesota (10) is gone with Gov Riot now the Veep candidate.

And this is against the backdrop of mail-in voting, which isn't going away.

Stop with the pipe dreams in NJ, CT, and NY. Those gutters have a machine that’s not worth an ounce of energy.

Finally, to assess how close this can get, you have to scrutinize the winning vote margin in those close states that tip the balance to the winner, ie the Tipping Point states.

Since 2004 every election except for 2008 it came down to the handful of states that tip the Electoral College scale to the winner:

- In Trump’s win in 2016, his cumulative winning margin in the tipping point states of Wi, Mi, and PA was 77,444 votes.

-In Biden’s case, his tipping point margin was about 40k votes.

-Obama in 2012, it was about 500k votes.

-Bush in 2004, about 16k votes.

All this campaigning and rallies and debates blah blah blah…it all comes down in general to beating the other guy (or gal) by less than 100,000 votes.

….and it’s actually thinner than that, because all the losing candidate needed was to flip at least half of those votes.

[cowboyusa]

PA is no tossup after she dissed Shapiro

[glennaro]

There are no leads. There are only changes ...

A most cogent comment. Cheers! & BTTT

[38special]

I fully expect the same outcome as 2020, another shit show.

[cowboyusa]

Don’t sleep on NJ. Left Wing does not play well in the NJ Philly Suburbs either.

[PermaRag]

“How manyvfaithless electors refused to cast their pledged vote to Trump in 2016?”

Two.

Hitlery lost 5 that way. None of it was relevant since they weren’t going to alter the outcome. But if Trump wins a close election in 2024 then the Democrats, who totally are not “election deniers”, will be pressuring/threatening/doxxing GOP electors in Trump states to an extent never seen before.

Those faithless GOP electors won’t need to vote for Kamulatto; they’ll just need to NOT vote for Trump and instead select Haley or whoever. THEN they need to face the consequences; their next-of-kin can read about them glowingly in the Democrat-written history books.

[sunny bonobo]

MI is not. That’s why Walz is VP candidate.
*******************
UH, MI is Michigan

[FreedBird]

Harris may have the sheep following her, but not enough to win the Electoral College. The Dems. will be working overtime to rig the election again this time.

[FreedBird]

Harris picked the worse candidate to be Vice President. Kelly or Shapiro would have been the better choice. It exposes her bad judgement.

[Owen]

>>
The polling isn’t important.
The proper discussion is around how to flip 38+ electoral votes
>>

The point of polling is to measure change. Change in response to stimulus.

That stimulus could be an event controlled by one or the other campaign. Or it could be an event completely uncontrolled.

That’s the whole point of it. If you are getting sound bites out to the public, what phrasing moves the needle? What visuals move the needle?

Then there is the reality that in life more than one thing is happening at any one time. You can delude yourself into thinking something you did moved the needle, when it was some other factor entirely.

FR is filled with people saying “Trump can win if he just stops the name calling and concentrates on issues”. There are also the posts of “Trump can win by asking just this question of X words”. Or “If Trump would just say this in his ads / campaigns, he wins!!!”

No one knows if any of that is true. People are all about what makes them feel good. That doesn’t translate to data. It’s whimsical guessing — derived from some confidence that their own attitudes are universal.

So, a campaign experiments and looks for response, and it does this with a focus group that they desperately hope is representative of the overall electorate. Test phrasing on them. Test visuals on them. And hope if the needle moves with them, it will with the total population.

Oh, and that experiment will be phrasing and visuals delivered to the focus group while the candidate is 1000 miles away, so the delivery lacks his verbal rhythm blah blah. Meaning, it’s not a perfect experiment, but the best you have.