Lichtman's 13 Keys to the White House - BOTH Biden and Harris Lose [Vanity]

FreeRepublic ^ | July 11, 2024 | Reno89519

[Reno89519]

Using Allan Lichtman's "13 Keys the the White House", both Biden and Harris will lose. And lose decisively.

Allan Lichtman wrote "13 Keys the the White House" in 1981. His model has accurately predicted every election from 1980 to 2020. I was a 1980s student of Lichtman, his book was part of a class. I do take exception to his conclusion about 2020 election, where he forecast Trump losing. An honest appraisal of the 13 keys favored Trump but missed the steal.

Moving forward to 2024, Trump now challenges either Biden or likely Harris.

Lichtman's model says that if 8 or more 13 true/false statements are true, the incumbent will win.

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than they did after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third Party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term Economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term Economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy Change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social Unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/Military Failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/Military Success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent Charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger Charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Biden first:

1. Party Mandate: False - The incumbent party did not gain seats in the House during the midterms.
2. Contest: True - There is no serious contest for Biden's nomination within the Democratic Party.
3. Incumbency: True - Biden is the sitting president.
4. Third Party: False - Significant third-party candidates are polling around 5-10%, which can influence the election outcome.
5. Short-term Economy: False - Inflation and other economic challenges are significant concerns.
6. Long-term Economy: False - Despite some growth, issues like inflation and strategic reserve depletion indicate instability.
7. Policy Change: True - The Biden administration has enacted major policy changes.
8. Social Unrest: False - There are widespread and sustained protests, including pro-Palestinian and anti-Semitic incidents.
9. Scandal: False - Multiple controversies, including those involving Hunter Biden and administration officials.
10. Foreign/Military Failure: False - Significant setbacks such as the Afghanistan withdrawal and other military policy issues.
11. Foreign/Military Success: False - No major foreign policy successes have been achieved.
12. Incumbent Charisma: False - Biden is not considered a charismatic leader.
13. Challenger Charisma: False - Trump is considered charismatic and has a highly loyal following.

True: 3, False: 10. Biden loses.

Next, presuming Harris replaces Biden, which seems the logical choice, and gives campaign continued access to their to-date raised funds and avoids party infighting over a candidate:

1. Party Mandate: False. The incumbent party did not gain seats in the House during the midterms.
2. Contest: True. There is no serious contest for Harris' nomination within the Democratic Party.
3. Incumbency: False. Harris would not be the sitting president.
4. Third Party: False. Significant third-party candidates are polling around 5-10%, which can influence the election outcome.
5. Short-term Economy: False. Inflation and other economic challenges are significant concerns.
6. Long-term Economy: False. Despite some growth, issues like inflation and strategic reserve depletion indicate instability.
7. Policy Change: True. The Biden administration has enacted major policy changes.
8. Social Unrest: False. There are widespread and sustained protests, including pro-Palestinian and anti-Semitic incidents.
9. Scandal: False. Multiple controversies, including those involving Hunter Biden and administration officials.
10. Foreign/Military Failure: False. Significant setbacks such as the Afghanistan withdrawal and other military policy issues.
11. Foreign/Military Success: False. No major foreign policy successes have been achieved.
12. Incumbent Charisma: False. Harris is not considered a charismatic leader.
13. Challenger Charisma: False. Trump is considered charismatic and has a highly loyal following.

True: 2, False: 11. Harris loses. Even if Biden resign and Harris is considered an incumbent, she still loses.

Either way, by Lichtman's 13 keys, Trump wins.

[Reno89519]

With 117 days to go, we need to be prepared for surprises and a likely attempt to steal the election again.

[Governor Dinwiddie]

#2: "surprises and a likely attempt to steal the election again".

The steal is going no RIGHT NOW. Millions of illegals keep pouring in. Now every local and state government form has a box where you can check "register me to vote", no questions asked. And every scummy border jumper fills out those forms to get free stuff.

That was a good read, going over Lichtman's list. Thanks for posting it. But as you pointed out, the steal nullifies that list.

[Signalman]

Biden loses on almost all of them.

[sauropod]

Lichtman is rabidly anti-Trump.

[usafa92]

I would argue that #2 is false for Biden. While he didn’t face a primary challenge, he’s got one going on right now, and a very vocal one at that.

[Reno89519]

Yes, he is a classic liberal and in 2020 he really hurt his reputation trying to twist his 13 keys to say Trump would lose.

[EasySt]

“Instead of warning about the vulnerability of mail-in ballots and drop boxes being highly susceptible to cheating, the pundits, even on the right, are wasting time measuring how many voters in which demographics are trending toward Trump. It will not matter.”

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2024/07/nothing_matters_in_elections_more_than_election_integrity.html

[Reno89519]

Yes, every effort should be made to follow all applicable election laws, have observers in place, and lots of energetic, competent, and eager lawyers ready to pounce on each and every issue. I was an observer in 2020 and found the party and campaign contacts were uninterested in illegality reported in Nevada.

[MHT]

Last month Biden was winning.

[Big E]

While I know Lichtman is a Democrat, I don’t think he sees his keys quite the same way. He is still saying Biden will win, if he stays in. I believe he has made the point that if Biden drops out, he must drop all the way out, making Harris the President so she has the ‘incumbency’ key.

[Reno89519]

Correct, he’s not honestly interpreting the keys any more than he did in 2020. When I get a moment, I’ll look up his latest view and do a comparision.

[Big E]

Well, for example, the long term economy key. Technically, that key is true. But then is it fair to consider economic ‘growth’, when we artificially shut down the economy for two years? And what about inflation? I don’t see that listed in any of his keys.

Respectfully, I do take issue with your characterization of Trump as charismatic. I would flip that key the other way. Trump has a strong loyal following, but we’re a minority. The last GOP candidate I think who would get the nod on that key would be Reagan.

[Reno89519]

Here are Allan Lichtman's conclusions versus mine:

1. Party Mandate: False - The incumbent party did not gain seats in the midterm elections.
2. Contest: True - There is no serious contest for Biden's nomination.
3. Incumbency: True - Biden is the sitting president.
4. Third Party: True - No significant third-party candidate is expected. [False - Significant third-party candidates are polling around 5-10%, which can influence the election outcome.]
5. Short-term Economy: True - Economic indicators favor the incumbent. [False - Inflation and other economic challenges are significant concerns.]
6. Long-term Economy: True - Economic performance over the term is strong. [False - espite some growth, issues like inflation and strategic reserve depletion indicate instability.]
7. Policy Change: True - Major policy changes have been enacted.
8. Social Unrest: True - There is no significant social unrest affecting the incumbent. [False - There are widespread and sustained protests, including pro-Palestinian and anti-Semitic incidents.]
9. Scandal: True - The administration is free from major scandals. [False - Multiple controversies, including those involving Hunter Biden and administration officials.]
10. Foreign/Military Failure: False - There have been significant foreign or military failures.
11. Foreign/Military Success: False - There is no significant foreign or military success.
12. Incumbent Charisma: False - Biden is not considered a charismatic leader.
13. Challenger Charisma: True - The challenging candidate (Trump) is not deemed charismatic or a national hero.

[Big E]

Huh. Interesting. It’s really pretty subjective. For example, if there’s a cease-fire agreement in the Ukraine or Israel before the election, is that a success? If there’s not, is that a failure?

And if they drop Harris in as the President, does she really enjoy any sort of advantage as the ‘incumbent’, which no one voted for? Gerald Ford didn’t seem to have any advantage. Well, however these keys get filled out, I hope when I come home at 9pm on the first Tuesday in November, they’ll be admitting that Donald Trump has been re-elected.