Posted on 07/01/2024 11:40:03 AM PDT by Red Badger
They get bonuses for pimping ‘Climate Change’..................
Oh I know....they even have a special daily show dedicated to that stupidity.
Yes, but we all want to know what the European Model predicts. The US press of late only ever seems to quote the European Model. Must be because those EU types have all that experience with tropical storm prediction.
WOw... that is one impressive storm. Especially, for July 1
Where is NautiNurse?
Maybe she’s on Graveyard shift.............
Oh great... one model has Beryl heading north to slam Houston!
Just one....................
One of the reasons for using the European model is for hurricane Ian which hit Ft Myers area, that model predicted Ft. Myers like 4 or 5 days out and never varied. Other models went from Tampa to Destin then back to Tampa to settle on Ft Myers like the day before. NOAA was mostly shooting for Tampa.
Here's the current forecast guidance for winds:
INIT 01/1500Z 12.4N 61.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 13.3N 64.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 14.5N 67.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 15.6N 71.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 16.4N 75.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 17.2N 79.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 17.8N 82.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 19.0N 88.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 120H 06/1200Z 20.5N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
I personally don’t give much attention to anything past 48 hours out..............
the real question is... what are the wind speeds at sea level.
the estimated speeds are at 2000+ feet which are always higher. this helps them sell the global warming produces bigger storms narrative.
If they get enough planes up there spraying they can get another Harvey to Houston.
That’s all it takes.... one.
I’m in Barbados at the moment. Wasn’t really a big deal for us.
BTW — check Wikipedia for Hurricane Beryl:
In Barbados: over a dozen reports of damaged roofs.
In Tobago: nine trees fell.
THAT is a major Cat 4 hurricane!!!!
“the estimated speeds are at 2000+ feet which are always higher. “
The NHC wind forecasts are for 10 meters (33 feet) above ground level unless otherwise specified. Winds aloft are separate forecasts.
try calling the NHC and asking why the buoys the storm just ran over shows 50-100 mph difference in wind speeds.
that’s when they’ll tell you the speeds are at altitude.
right now, noaa is reporting beryl has winds of 155mph SUSTAINED.
why is that interesting?
because it ran over this bouy yesterday:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059
scroll down to see the last 24+ hrs of readings every 10 minutes. see any readings even close to 155mph? no.
odds are, sea level winds are prolly 75-90mph but that’s not very exciting when you’re trying to sell the ‘global warming produces massive storms’ bs.
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