Historian who correctly predicted almost every election winner since 1984 reveals who is likely to win in 2024

Fox ^ | 2/6/2024 | Spady

[Phoenix8]

The "Keys to the White House" are being handed out, predicting President Biden currently holds a slight lead in a hypothetical 2024 matchup against former President Donald Trump.

Allan Lichtman, an election prognosticator who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984, developed a formula that is used to make predictions about an upcoming presidential election - and in many cases, it proves to be accurate.

Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" consists of 13 true or false questions that he believes establish a strong indication of who will be named the victor on the fall ballot. Each question is asked about the two dueling nominees; if "true" they are given a "key," and if "false," their competitor receives the point.

Thus far, Biden holds five of the "keys," while Trump was able to capture about three, Lichtman revealed to MarketWatch. That leaves five keys still up for grabs, and enough room for the former president to secure a lead before November.

Trump Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump is the current frontrunner of the Republican presidential primary race. (Chip Somodevilla) According to American University, where Lichtman teaches, the "keys" are as follows: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short term economy, long term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.

[Osage Orange]

Almost

[Osage Orange]

PIF...that is exactly what worries me.

[ro_dreaming]

Amazes me most Americans give Biden a “key” vote for the economy.

That’s because most Americans don’t. Illegal aliens, the mainstream press, and the Congress-critters might, but Americans by and large, don’t.

[ThisLittleLightofMine]

Exactly

[gleeaikin]

I tried for six years to get my dead husband’s name removed from the sign in voting book with his signature at my polling site.

[gleeaikin]

Sounds reasonable to me. One problem with the 60 cases ruled against state by state voter fraud was lack of evidence. Trump’s lawyer Giuliana was repeatedly urged by White House staff to get the evidence together needed to prove these cases, which he apparently failed to do. With more than 20 Trump appointed judges, surely a number of these cases would have been influenced by good evidence being presented.

[Fledermaus]

An American with an IQ of 25 could have predicted 1984.

[Yo-Yo]

I tried for six years to get my dead husband’s name removed from the sign in voting book with his signature at my polling site.

But was there ever a ballot cast in his name?

[gleeaikin]

I have no reason to think so. I suppose I could have taught a male friend how to forge his signature, but was ptetty sure the candidate I preferred would win in our area anyway. Since I asked the poll warker to have his signature removed each time, I figured his government filed death certificate would be checked and the signature no longer there the next time I voted.

[Mr. K]

Who did he select in the last election? Biden did not win he stole it

[Pelham]

“In April 2017, Lichtman authored the book The Case for Impeachment, laying out multiple arguments for the impeachment of Donald Trump.”

[rollo tomasi]

Gibsmedats + abortion or economy/security variables (Single females anger/worried correlation) + Animosity towards a candidate + turnout (A Repub thing, dems apparatus is a lot better due to organizing homeless/nursing home ballots) + Married females that tilt slightly in one favor (An important key) + effeminate male simps + masculine male turnout. Not that hard to figure out.

If people think Trump has this in the bag, then they can't "read the room" at all. Young single females vs. male turnout will decide this election.

[rollo tomasi]

Lichtman is as biased as bias can be politically but that does not negate the fact he can analyze variables to reach conclusions that run opposite of his political wants. Do you really think he wanted a Repub victory in elections he predicted correctly? Throws your whole point out the window.

[Pelham]

lol. I imagine that you can place bets in Vegas based on his prediction. You should go for it. Bet heavy.

[Harmless Teddy Bear]

Nearly.

[nwrep]

There was no evidence of the kind of fraud that the alcoholic Giuliani was trying to find.

[logi_cal869]

If you choose to vote absentee, you waive your right to a secret ballot. All absentee ballots will be linked by a serial number to the voter, and to the voter's signature envelope.

EXACTLY!!! I've echoed nearly all of your comments prior.

[Phoenix8]

I agree.

The problem with many here is they live in Rural areas in red states. Where sanity still prevails and everyone thinks like us, more or less. Go to Urban areas and that prevailing mindset changes…and how.

I live near Louisville Ky, which compared to many cities in the US now isn’t even that big. Especially if one goes downtown near the medical complex. I’m always amazed at the humans shambling around: weird medical conditions, crippled bodies, homeless, druggies and all on welfare , sometimes it reminds me of that old German film Freaks. Democrats everyone.

https://images.app.goo.gl/cMfodcsNaTibCXJN9

Now not all Urban people are Dems of course but 80% of the country is Urban now and % of Dems are higher in them. As one moves put to the suburbs the freaks drop off but then the ones you mentioned -soccer moms, simps, beta males etc increase.

That’s why Desantis was the better candidate in terms of winning. He doesn’t trigger the suburb moderates like Trump does.