Posted on 01/30/2024 4:55:50 AM PST by MtnClimber
“We do not seek another war. We do not seek to escalate. But we will absolutely do what is required to protect ourselves to continue that mission and to respond appropriately to these attacks…We will respond. We’ll do that on our schedule,” White House National Security Spokesman John Kirby stated.
Iran isn’t afraid of escalating. Its leaders and spokesmen don’t constantly express their fear of escalation. Instead, they escalate.
Their Jihadists seize control of shipping in the Red Sea. They invade Israel and kill over a thousand people. They hit a U.S. base inside Jordan.
The obsessions with “escalation” or “proportionate responses” are foolish. A military action is a tool. The question is what is the goal that this tool is accomplishing?
I can’t think of anything proportionate responses by a stronger nation reacting to aggression accomplish. In some conditions, such a response may maintain a balance of terror, but against an enemy who is constantly escalating, they clearly don’t work.
At best (and this is debatable) they may serve as some sort of brake slowing down the level of enemy escalation. But that’s also senseless.
When faced with escalating attacks, you can choose to withdraw from the arena of action (if possible, and this is also debatable) or if you have the capability, you either defeat the enemy or escalate beyond their ability to respond.
The Biden administration is once again choosing to do none of these things. Instead, it’s going to put on a show of responding in what it considers to be a proportionate way that is in theory meant to dissuade Iran from further attacks, but that clearly is not working.
And will never work.
When the enemy is afraid of escalating and you aren’t, the enemy has a problem. When you’re afraid of escalating and the enemy isn’t, you have a problem.
The goal of a balance of terror is to move from the latter to the former. Instead, Biden has moved us from the former to the latter.
Maybe the terrorists of Iran will be afraid of our transgenders.
Daniel Greenfield ping
Iran and their allies perceive the US is bluffing.
And they’re right.
The author could apply this same article to domestic US politics right now. Think about it.
"Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt."
BTTT
Intentional Unresolved Conflict, interesting theory.
Unresolved Conflict is also the perfect distraction for domestic issues that have been purposely orchestrated to weaken the US on the global stage.
Joey is using $1M missiles to kill $50K drones. Also Joey is using $100M+ aircraft to bomb 3rd world thugs. Just ONE AA Battery could be interesting. ROI on Joey’s investment is orders of magnitude LESS THAN ZERO.
Smoke and Mirrors!!!!
Their Bible is "The Apprentice Blowhard's Guide to Winning Through Intimidation." :)
Cicero, courtesy Taylor Caldwell.
So this fellow’s theory is never withdraw and always escalate. It’s a recipe for total war. Peak Neocon. He might want to add to his analysis something about costs and benefits. And he might want to take into account that the USA is not omnipotent, that there are real limits to American power. Absent a ground invasion and occupation of Iran and absent nuclear strikes, they can absorb any air campaign we mount against them, and will probably be happy to do so.
Trump gets in the White House, and *poof*, gone.
The recent attack on “Tower 22” in Jordan is a whole different matter. In that case, the author’s point is ludicrous because the U.S. is not some kind of benign spectator in the region. From everything I’ve read about it, the facility in Jordan is a supply depot for a U.S. military outpost in Syria that is a blatant violation of another nation’s sovereignty. The U.S. military has no business being there, and should be considered a legitimate military target by any adversary.
Iran isn’t afraid of escalating. Its leaders and spokesmen don’t constantly express their fear of escalation. Instead, they escalate.
~~~
In the world of strategy, it’s not always as simple as that.
Many times, a weaker opponent will be the one using threat displays and skirmishes in order to provoke a larger retaliation and to measure the response. This serves many purposes, one of which goes toward the premise of the article, which is to gauge the will of the one being provoked, as well as their capabilities. If the response is proportional, then it may result in a tit-for-tat scenario, or measured escalation. If the response is significantly disproportional, they can take umbrage or fein victimhood and claim that they are not the aggressor and don’t want war. Often times, threat displays are meant to intimidate. They are often very risky because they are very often used by those who truly can’t afford significant escalation.
It’s the opposite. Backing down and telling your enemy you are backing down will bring us the war you are afraid of. Respond. Respond quickly. Respond boldly, and these jihadist pukes will go running away. That is what they understand.
They understand power and getting whacked. They also understand weakness. These are not high level thinkers. They are closer to animals. Kindly telling them to go away will not work. A hard swat on the nose, that gets them to back down. Don’t be afraid to anger them. They are already at war with us They already hate us. They already want to kill us.
EC
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The leadership is compromised and wants the enemy to win, but beleives they have to put up enough of a resistance to give some credibility to the notion they are actually defending their country.
Remember, Obama and Biden gave billions and billions of dollars to Iran, engineered a deal so Iran can continue development of a nuclear bomb, and arranged sanctions and their lack so as to give Iran more ability to sell their oil.
It is sometimes difficult to discern between incompetence and treason.
Iran is a nation of cowards.
They never fight. They buy mercenaries known as Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi.
If they do actually fire the ballistic rockets at Tel Aviv, Qum and several other places will be quickly obliterated. Americans won’t be the obliterators
These idiots want to drag us into a war in the Middle East. But meanwhile they have opened our own borders to any jihadi who wants to tiptoe into our country.
Stop the madness. Spend whatever it takes on shutting down our border and removing each and every illegal/dangerous alien from our own country. Spend the money now going to foreign wars on a border wall that will keep illegals out. Make America great and SAFE again.
“Der Krieg ist eine bloße Fortsetzung der Politik mit anderen Mitteln”
“War Is a Mere Continuation of Policy with Other Means.”
von Clausewitz
Military action is governed by its role as part of broader national policy. Overwhelming military force is not necessarily better than carefully calibrated action in the broader context.
For example, about 4 months ago, Hamas killed about 1200 Israelis. Since then, Israel has killed about 24,000 Gazans, or a 20 to 1 ratio. How is it working out for them in terms of their overall political and economic position?
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