Posted on 10/17/2022 8:46:05 PM PDT by Cathi
MK Bhadrakumar, Former Ambassador (India)
Two massive terrorist strikes misfired spectacularly and a terrible beauty is born in the Ukraine war. These two carefully planned attacks in quick succession — on Nord Stream gas pipelines and Crimean Bridge — were intended as a knockout blow to Russia. According to President Vladimir Putin, people ‘who want to finally sever ties between Russia and the EU, weaken Europe’ are behind the Nord Stream blasts. He named the US, Ukraine and Poland as ‘beneficiaries’.
India should expect the defeat of the US and NATO, which completes the transition to a multipolar world order.
Last Wednesday, Russia’s domestic intelligence service FSB identified Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, as the mastermind behind the Crimean attack. The New York Times and Washington Post also pointed fingers at Kiev, quoting ‘sources’. While Nord Stream-1 has been crippled, one of the strings of Nord Stream-2 remains intact. Putin said last week that the pipeline could be restored and Russia could deliver about 27 billion cubic metres of gas. ‘The ball is on the side of the European Union, if they want — let’s turn on the tap,’ he said.
But mum’s the word from Brussels. It is a profoundly embarrassing moment for the EU. The triumphalism has vanished as Europe is threatened by years of recession caused by the blowback from sanctions against Russia, where the US insisted on the cut off of energy ties with Moscow. The EU has now become a captive market for Big Oil and is left to buy LNG from the US at the asking price, which is six to seven times higher than the domestic price in the US. (Contracted price for long-term Russian supply for Germany used to be about $280 per 1,000 cubic metres as against the current market price hovering around $2,000.)
Plainly put, the Europeans have been nicely played by the Americans. India should take note of the US’ sense of entitlement. Basically, the Biden administration created a contrived energy crisis whose real aim is war profiteering.
The Crimean Bridge attack of October 8 is much more serious. Zelenskyy has crossed a red line that Moscow had repeatedly warned him against. Putin has disclosed that there have also been three terrorist attacks against the Kursk NPP. Russians will settle for nothing less than the ouster of the Zelenskyy regime.
Russia’s retaliation against Ukraine’s ‘critical infrastructure’, something Moscow refrained from so far, has serious implications. Since October 9, Russia has begun systematically targeting Ukraine’s power system and railways. Noted Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin told Izvestia that if this tempo was kept up for a week or so, it ‘will disrupt the entire logistics of the Ukrainian military — system for transporting personnel, military equipment, ammunition, related cargo, as well as the functioning of military and repair plants.’
The Americans are cocooned in a surreal world of their self-serving narrative that Russia ‘lost’ the war. In the real world, though, Ivan Tertel, KGB chief in Belarus, who has an insider view of Moscow, said last Tuesday that with Russia boosting its troop strength in the war zone — 3 lakh troops who have been mobilised plus 70,000 volunteers — and the deployment of advanced weaponry, ‘the military operation will enter a key phase. According to our estimates, a turning point will come in the period from November of this year to February of next year.’
Policy-makers and strategists in Delhi should make a careful note of the timeline. The bottom line is, Russia is looking for an all-out victory and will not settle for anything less than a friendly government in Kiev. Western politicians, including Biden, understand that there is nothing stopping the Russians now. The US’ weapon kitty is running dry as Kiev keeps asking for more.
When asked whether he’d meet Biden at the G20 in Bali, Putin derisively remarked on Friday, ‘He (Biden) should be asked whether he is ready to hold such negotiations with me or not. To be honest, I don’t see any need, by and large. There is no platform for any negotiations for the time being.’
However, Washington has not yet thrown in the towel and the Biden administration remains obsessed with exhausting the Russian military — even at the cost of Ukraine’s destruction. And, for the Russians too, there is still much to be worked out on the battlefield: the oppressed Russian populations in Odessa (which suffered unspeakable atrocities from the neo-Nazis), Mykolaiv, Zaporizhya, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkov are expecting ‘liberation’. It’s a highly emotive issue for Russia. Again, the overarching agenda of ‘demilitarisation’ and ‘denazification’ of Ukraine must be taken to its logical conclusion.
When all that is over, Putin knows Biden will not even want to meet him. Hungarian PM Viktor Orban said last week, ‘Anyone who seriously believes that the war can be ended through Russian-Ukrainian negotiations lives in another world. Reality looks different. In reality, such issues can only be discussed between Washington and Moscow. Today, Ukraine is able to fight only because it receives military assistance from the United States…
‘At the same time, I do not see President Biden as the person who would really be suitable for such serious negotiations. President Biden has gone too far. Suffice it to recall his statements to Russian President Putin.’
India should expect the defeat of the US and NATO, which completes the transition to a multipolar world order. Sadly, Indian elites are yet to purge their ‘unipolar predicament’. Europe, including Britain, is devastated and there is palpable discontent over the US’s ‘transatlantic leadership’. Indo-Pacific strategy is hopelessly adrift. New power centres are emerging in India’s extended neighbourhood, as the OPEC’s rebuff to Washington shows. A profound adjustment is needed in the Indian strategic calculus.
Cathi, I could not agree more. It’s quite transparent. We see Biden treating all countries as mules, as well as breaking the US financially for the sake of climate change and a new world order. “No one will own anything and be happy.” — Klaus Schwab.
Translation: slavery.
Ask the Chinese about such ideals.
Their enablers are now, strangely, all over FR. Gasp.
The US will suffer retribution for these years of poking the bear. Putin has always rejected hostile NATO booting around its borders hiding bio-labs and MIL drills and intimidating the Russian-speaking
population with the Azov Battalion as their overseers.
Julian Assange speaking in 2011:
“The goal is to use Afghanistan (Ukraine) to wash money out of the tax bases of the US and Europe through Afghanistan (Ukraine) and back into the hands of a transnational security elite. The goal is an endless war, not a successful war”
They’re doing the same thing in Ukraine now....
The territory controlled maps tell a different story from your story.
It appears that the Russians have another Afghanistan with a lot smarter foe.
Interesting that Washington DC is so close to the Atlantic Ocean and not deep in Indian territory.
Just following your logic.
Ok, fair enough, but you misread the map (or perhaps I misread your comment). Kiev wasn’t the capital of the Russian Empire. The capital was St. Petersburg.
It took 7 years, and many setbacks for the 13 colonies to win Independence in The Revolutionary War.
Time will tell.
Russia is having internal difficulties, just as US did during the Vietnam War.
I expect internal dissent will win this war. That is, if nukes don’t fly first.
Yes, I live and die by those maps.
Not.
And what do those maps have to do with the WEST/UK/US/EU/NATO depleting and running out of military hardware and munitions to send Ukraine?
After 57 years as the capital of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic of the Soviet Union, Kiev became the capital of independent Ukraine in 1991.
I don’t think so. Obviously.
Biden will most certainly use nuclear weapons when all else fails. His commitment to destroy Russia at any cost will prevail unless he can be removed from office. That may be the only hope for mankind.
Some idiot Indian. I’m in Europe now. There is genuine fury in Europe over Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Every time the Russians murder more civilians with missile and drone strikes it ratchets upwards, sustaining the will to keep up sanctions despite the obvious costs.
They need to supply them with more ATACMS so they can start striking Moscow and Saint Petersburg with them like the Russians have struck Ukrainian cities.
Maybe if Russians see the Hermitage devastated they will realize the cost of compliance with a tyrant. But I’d prefer to see the missiles used against C&C bunkers as they are designed for.
Besides, perhaps forcing Russia to cough up loot from Poland and Germany seized in WWII or before now at the Hermitage should be part of the negotiations.
“What are they waiting for?”
Waiting till after the November 8 elections, when the American people exterminate the illegitimate puppet regime and then proceed to shut off the money spigot to Ukraine.
BFL
There has been plenty of dissent.
The people and the DUMA were together frustrated about Putin’s multiple efforts to seek negotiation with Elinsky, and with his maddening restraint.
Putin let the world digest his reasons for liberating the UKR border regions, in two different speeches, and time to observe who it is behind the encroachment on Russia’s southwestern border.
Those with ears to hear and eyes to see could not dispute the facts and the history.
So it was all blacked out in the US news and journals.
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