Posted on 10/17/2022 8:46:05 PM PDT by Cathi
MK Bhadrakumar, Former Ambassador (India)
Two massive terrorist strikes misfired spectacularly and a terrible beauty is born in the Ukraine war. These two carefully planned attacks in quick succession — on Nord Stream gas pipelines and Crimean Bridge — were intended as a knockout blow to Russia. According to President Vladimir Putin, people ‘who want to finally sever ties between Russia and the EU, weaken Europe’ are behind the Nord Stream blasts. He named the US, Ukraine and Poland as ‘beneficiaries’.
India should expect the defeat of the US and NATO, which completes the transition to a multipolar world order.
Last Wednesday, Russia’s domestic intelligence service FSB identified Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, as the mastermind behind the Crimean attack. The New York Times and Washington Post also pointed fingers at Kiev, quoting ‘sources’. While Nord Stream-1 has been crippled, one of the strings of Nord Stream-2 remains intact. Putin said last week that the pipeline could be restored and Russia could deliver about 27 billion cubic metres of gas. ‘The ball is on the side of the European Union, if they want — let’s turn on the tap,’ he said.
But mum’s the word from Brussels. It is a profoundly embarrassing moment for the EU. The triumphalism has vanished as Europe is threatened by years of recession caused by the blowback from sanctions against Russia, where the US insisted on the cut off of energy ties with Moscow. The EU has now become a captive market for Big Oil and is left to buy LNG from the US at the asking price, which is six to seven times higher than the domestic price in the US. (Contracted price for long-term Russian supply for Germany used to be about $280 per 1,000 cubic metres as against the current market price hovering around $2,000.)
Plainly put, the Europeans have been nicely played by the Americans. India should take note of the US’ sense of entitlement. Basically, the Biden administration created a contrived energy crisis whose real aim is war profiteering.
The Crimean Bridge attack of October 8 is much more serious. Zelenskyy has crossed a red line that Moscow had repeatedly warned him against. Putin has disclosed that there have also been three terrorist attacks against the Kursk NPP. Russians will settle for nothing less than the ouster of the Zelenskyy regime.
Russia’s retaliation against Ukraine’s ‘critical infrastructure’, something Moscow refrained from so far, has serious implications. Since October 9, Russia has begun systematically targeting Ukraine’s power system and railways. Noted Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin told Izvestia that if this tempo was kept up for a week or so, it ‘will disrupt the entire logistics of the Ukrainian military — system for transporting personnel, military equipment, ammunition, related cargo, as well as the functioning of military and repair plants.’
The Americans are cocooned in a surreal world of their self-serving narrative that Russia ‘lost’ the war. In the real world, though, Ivan Tertel, KGB chief in Belarus, who has an insider view of Moscow, said last Tuesday that with Russia boosting its troop strength in the war zone — 3 lakh troops who have been mobilised plus 70,000 volunteers — and the deployment of advanced weaponry, ‘the military operation will enter a key phase. According to our estimates, a turning point will come in the period from November of this year to February of next year.’
Policy-makers and strategists in Delhi should make a careful note of the timeline. The bottom line is, Russia is looking for an all-out victory and will not settle for anything less than a friendly government in Kiev. Western politicians, including Biden, understand that there is nothing stopping the Russians now. The US’ weapon kitty is running dry as Kiev keeps asking for more.
When asked whether he’d meet Biden at the G20 in Bali, Putin derisively remarked on Friday, ‘He (Biden) should be asked whether he is ready to hold such negotiations with me or not. To be honest, I don’t see any need, by and large. There is no platform for any negotiations for the time being.’
However, Washington has not yet thrown in the towel and the Biden administration remains obsessed with exhausting the Russian military — even at the cost of Ukraine’s destruction. And, for the Russians too, there is still much to be worked out on the battlefield: the oppressed Russian populations in Odessa (which suffered unspeakable atrocities from the neo-Nazis), Mykolaiv, Zaporizhya, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkov are expecting ‘liberation’. It’s a highly emotive issue for Russia. Again, the overarching agenda of ‘demilitarisation’ and ‘denazification’ of Ukraine must be taken to its logical conclusion.
When all that is over, Putin knows Biden will not even want to meet him. Hungarian PM Viktor Orban said last week, ‘Anyone who seriously believes that the war can be ended through Russian-Ukrainian negotiations lives in another world. Reality looks different. In reality, such issues can only be discussed between Washington and Moscow. Today, Ukraine is able to fight only because it receives military assistance from the United States…
‘At the same time, I do not see President Biden as the person who would really be suitable for such serious negotiations. President Biden has gone too far. Suffice it to recall his statements to Russian President Putin.’
India should expect the defeat of the US and NATO, which completes the transition to a multipolar world order. Sadly, Indian elites are yet to purge their ‘unipolar predicament’. Europe, including Britain, is devastated and there is palpable discontent over the US’s ‘transatlantic leadership’. Indo-Pacific strategy is hopelessly adrift. New power centres are emerging in India’s extended neighbourhood, as the OPEC’s rebuff to Washington shows. A profound adjustment is needed in the Indian strategic calculus.
this propaganda has already been posted by one of your comrades ...
Sorry, it didn’t come up when I checked before I posted. I may have not listed it the same when checking.
If Russia could win the war, then why has it taken so long? What are they waiting for?
Katya doesn’t care. They are all so desperate for something positive, they will re post and re read the same thing over and over again.
Unfortunately most freepers do not understand that Putin’s original mission for the “special military operation” was rather limited to the exact things he publicly specified. Independence for the Donbass (though still being in Ukraine) demilitarization (getting rid of the NATO equipment) denazification (despite ignorant freepers confusing some of the public in many countries being Nazis...including ours...with Ukraine’s government and MILITARY being controlled by NAZIs.) And, of course an agreement to never join NATO.
Most freepers do not even know that when early in Zelensky’s administration he tried to push back on them they openly threatened to kill him...he backed down. Most freepers also don’t know that we deliberately chose the Nazi’s (nationalists, Azov, etc.) to train and to send to the front in the Donbass because they were the most brutal and most likely to get the job done.
Any country that has Nazi brigades (and Ukraine has a lot of them) is a Nazi administration.
So, Russia planned a minimal kinetic action and openly made clear they would leave Ukraine once the mission was accomplished. Russia began negotiations with Zelensky, they reached a tentative agreement in March and Boris Johnson and Lloyd Austin paid visits to Zelensky to tell him that if he went through with the agreement they would no longer support Ukraine. But, if they stayed in the “war” NATO would provide all the weapons and money he needed. He chose their offer over Russia’s.
Russia continued the “operation” making slow gains with few casualties, killed an enormously large amount of Ukrainian soldiers and destroyed an enormous amount of military equipment.
When that happened NATO (read: the United States) realized Russia would win, couldn’t let that happen and escalated their monetary and equipment support, even bringing Ukrainians into NATO countries for training to NATO standards. Ukraine engaged in 7 mobilizations. And developing high paid mercenary programs to enlarge the force. And Mi-6 worked with Ukraine to go on a large counter offensive at multiple points. (They planned and trained for this for 3 months.) At that point Russia had 150,000 troops in Ukraine and Ukraine forces were up to 400,000.
Russia came to the realization that this wasn’t a Russia vs. Ukraine war. This was a Russia vs. NATO war. Since that point they have been readjusting to the new reality.
If they were able to take 20% of Ukrainian territory with very minimal forces, obviously their advantage is likely to be much greater when they have approximately 500,000 troops involved. They have expanded their arsenal extensively including the items I mentioned earlier...and brought in 800 new tanks, 11 strategic bombers. 800 planes and helos. They are planning for a big campaign.
And the nonsense about Russia’s mobilized troops being so inferior is wrong. These newly mobilized troops are all former troops who were on Reserve classification. And, even more important than that is that Ukraine forces have been decimated. The kill ratio throughout this “war” has been 10 Ukrainians for every one Russian. Ukraine is down to conscripting 16 yr. olds and 65 year olds and they are in the process of registering women.
If you have been following this saga I am sure you realize that just in the last week Russia has knocked out much of Ukraine’s energy system.
The foreigners who are “getting out of Dodge” are making the right call. Ukraine is not someplace anyone will want to be when the ground freezes in November.
To put it succinctly, with a riff on Rome:
Russians started this war with misconceptions,i.e. that the non-Nazi hohos would welcome them as liberators, that they needed to avoid harm to civilian and govt infrastructure, that some sort of a deal would be made and the war would be over in a couple of months. Events since mid summer have totally disabused Russians of any/all of that.
The war will now end with, as Harry Truman once put it, a "Rain of Ruin"from the sky, moat likely in about two or three weeks
Circle logic.
Let’s reverse that for the sake of circle logic:
If Ukraine was winning since March like the West/UK/EU/US/NATO propaganda ridden media has been asserting and reporting, many of those articles posted with FR, why is Zelenskyyidiot incessantly begging, groveling and pleading for more money, tanks, planes, artillery, other military hardware, munitions, etc.? If Ukraine was actually ‘winning,’ why have they not driven out the Russian and pushed them back to the very gates of the Kremlin?
Yeah, circle logic for the win.
The latest in bad news for Ukraine:
“The Ukraine war ‘bubble’ is deflating as the U.S. and Europe reach the bottom of the arms ‘inventory barrel’.”
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2022/10/17/leviathan-super-cycle-ends-western-leaders-pretend-they-didnt-notice/
I have been keeping a long list of these type article, this being the latest admission.
The rain of ruin is beginning to be effected by an armada of toy airplanes and what we’ve seen over the past week was just a test...
I think he expresses what many Europeans are. But they do not underestimate Biden’s strong-arming threats if they don’t play along. So most do not speak up. What they are DOING is slow on delivering to Ukraine what was promised - dragging their feet and stalling. Which is why recently the Administration grumbled about Europe needing to do more....for Ukraine.
“The Ukraine war ‘bubble’ is deflating as the U.S. and Europe reach the bottom of the arms ‘inventory barrel’.”
I suspect that our geniuses running NATO figured that a war with Russia would either quickly end or quickly go nuclear.
Problem for our geniuses running NATO was that it assumed that Russia would play by their rules and also quickly end or escalate the war. Well, Russia didn’t read the NATO rule book and has now pretty much cleaned out all of the excess weapons that NATO has (for this type of warfare) and is forcing NATO to compromise both training an operational readiness in other areas.
One OBVIOUS way to tell is the near-silence of the HIMARS attacks for the past 2 months or so. These weapons were blowing up Russian stuff (including bridges and weapons depots) left and right...and now nothing*. Oh well, I guess our NATO geniuses were wrong regarding a war with Russia.
*hint, it take several years to complete even a relatively small production run of most NATO weapons - so if NATO can hold out in Ukraine for another 2 years, they might start getting more weapons in Ukraine.
Exceptionally good analysis of current reality. Even quotes the Indian former ambassador...:-)
One of the biggest disappointments of Free Republic is that the posting crowd has an allergy to clicking on articles. It is a genuine shame that they will not be seeing this whole article because he covers ever facet of the upcoming disaster for the West.
Thanks very much for posting it.
“What they are DOING is slow on delivering to Ukraine what was promised - dragging their feet and stalling.”
____________________
Yup.
⚡️⚡️⚡️Germany will only be able to supply the remaining Iris-T air defense systems to Ukraine within the next year
German Defense Minister Christina Lambrecht called it⚡️⚡️⚡️
I don’t see them having two MONTHS, much less two years....
Are you suggesting that Poland and Finland are next on Putin’s menu? Nah, that certainly couldn’t be what you meant, right. 😏
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