Posted on 10/08/2022 1:05:38 PM PDT by nuconvert
Iranian Regime national tv Channel One hacked about an hour ago. During a broadcast of Khamenie speech, a red crosshair appeared over his face and chanting of Women. Life. Freedom. There was writing to the side saying "Rise up. Join us". Also 4 photos at the bottom of the screen of young people killed and additional writing: "The blood of our youth is dropping from your paws".
Also, there was a huge banner in the middle of Tehran highway today that read: We are no longer afraid of you. We will fight.
Also, attempted attack on IRI ambassador in Denmark. Her bodyguard was stabbed. Diplomatic Security intervened before the attacker could stab the ambassador.
With the attacks now occurring in Iran: remember that first reports are almost always wrong in war. And, just because no one is covering something on social media outside urban areas, it doesn’t mean nothing is happening out there. Scope of strikes remains unclear.
https://x.com/WarintheFuture/status/2027638134880837644
Iran Update Evening Special Report, February 28, 2026
The combined US-Israeli force killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and it is unclear who is currently ruling Iran. US President Donald Trump confirmed on February 28 that Khamenei was killed.[1] Four Israeli security officials who were briefed on the matter told the Washington Post that Israeli airstrikes killed Khamenei in his Tehran compound on February 28.[2] A Fox News correspondent reported on February 28 that the combined force made the decision to take advantage of a meeting between Khamenei and multiple senior Iranian officials to strike Khamenei, according to US officials.[3] It is unclear at the time of this writing who is leading Iran. The Iranian constitution stipulates that the President, the Judiciary Chief, and a member of the Guardian Council will take over the responsibilities of the Supreme Leader until Iran’s Assembly of Experts convenes to select a new leader.[4] Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, and one of the six jurists on the Guardian Council are therefore constitutionally mandated to rule Iran. Khamenei was reportedly making plans prior to the current conflict for who he wanted to rule Iran in the event of his death, however. The New York Times reported on February 22 that Khamenei and top Iranian officials made plans for who would “manage the country” if Khamenei were killed.[5] The list of possible leaders included Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ali Larijani and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.[6]
The combined force conducted nearly 900 strikes on Iranian targets in the first 12 hours of its campaign, according to an unspecified US official speaking to Fox News.[7] The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated that it struck 500 Iranian targets.[8] ISW-CTP has observed strikes across 17 provinces.[9] The regime’s internet shutdown (read more below) has almost certainly limited the amount of information about US and Israeli strikes coming out of Iran. ISW-CTP’s strike data, therefore, only reflects a portion of the total amount of US and Israeli strikes. A senior US official told Axios on February 28 that US strikes are focused on Iran’s missile program and missile launchers, while Israeli strikes are focused both on senior Iranian officials and the missile program.[10]
Israeli officials told Axios on February 28 that Israel is targeting the entire “political and military” and “past, present, and future” Iranian leadership.[56] The combined force killed the following individuals:
Iranian Defense Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani[57]
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Mohammad Pakpour[58]
Defense Minister Brigadier General Aziz Nasir Zadeh[59]
Khatam ol Anbia Intelligence Chief Saleh Asadi[60]
Supreme Leader Military Office Chief Mohammad Shirazi[61]
Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND) Chairman Hossein Jabal Amelian[62]
Former SPND Chairman Reza Mozafari Nia[63]
The combined force also targeted Khamenei’s son and potential successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, but his status is unknown.[64] CBS reported that US and Israeli strikes killed at least 40 Iranian leaders.[65]
The US-Israeli combined force appears to be increasingly targeting the Iranian internal security apparatus after killing Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28. The targeting of internal security institutions is consistent with the US and Israeli stated objective of toppling the Iranian regime.[1] The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Ground Forces Sarallah Headquarters in Tehran, which is responsible for security in the capital region and plays a significant role in suppressing internal dissent.[2] The Sarallah Headquarters oversees the 10th Seyyed ol Shohada Operational Division in Karaj, Alborz Province, and the 27th Mohammad Rasoul Ollah Operational Division in Tehran City.[3] The combined force also struck the Law Enforcement Command (LEC) headquarters in Tehran. The LEC is the regime's first line of defense against protests.[4] The combined force killed LEC Intelligence Chief Gholamreza Rezaian on February 28.[5] Anti-regime media separately reported that the combined force destroyed the Tehran Revolutionary Court and published a video of explosions near the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) headquarters in Tehran.[6] IRIB is the Iranian state broadcaster that the regime uses to disseminate propaganda.[7] The IDF struck the IRIB headquarters in the 12-day war in June 2025.[8]
The combined force also struck internal security targets that played a role in suppressing the December 2025-January 2026 protest movement. The combined force reportedly struck Basij bases in Kermanshah and Tehran provinces, including bases that were reportedly involved in the suppression of the December 2025-January 2026 protests.[9] The targeting of Iranian internal security institutions could degrade Iranian security forces’ ability and willingness to quell potential internal unrest against the regime. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on March 1 that Israel will strike “thousands” of targets in the coming days and called on Iranians to “free themselves from the chains of tyranny.”[10]
The combined force has continued its decapitation campaign targeting senior Iranian leadership. The decapitation campaign likely seeks to limit Iran's ability to conduct retaliatory attacks by disrupting Iran's command-and-control and set conditions for regime change by removing senior leaders. The IDF confirmed that it killed Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS) Chief Major General Abdol Rahim Mousavi.[11] Mousavi replaced former AFGS Chief Mohammad Bagheri after Israel killed Bagheri in June 2025.[12] Iranian state media separately reported on March 1 that the combined force killed 12 IRGC members in Kashan, Esfahan Province.[13] It is unclear how the IRGC members died, although Kashan is home to several Iranian military sites, such as the IRGC Aerospace Force Shahid Karimi Drone Base.[14] The New York Times reported on March 1 that Iran's “top intelligence chief” survived a targeted strike but that “Iran's intelligence agencies were decimated.”[15] This report follows reports on February 28 that the IDF may have killed Iran's “intelligence chief.”[16] ISW-CTP previously noted that “intelligence chief” likely refers to either Iranian Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib or IRGC Intelligence Organization Chief Majid Khademi.[17]
The Iranian Expediency Discernment Council appointed Ali Reza Arafi, who was a trusted member of Khamenei’s inner circle, as the third member of the Leadership Council.[18] The Iranian constitution stipulates that the president, the judiciary chief, and a member of the Guardian Council will assume the responsibilities of the supreme leader when he dies until the Assembly of Experts convenes to select a new one.[19] Arafi is a senior Iranian cleric who has served as a member of the Assembly of Experts since June 2021.[20] Khamenei has promoted Arafi to senior positions within the regime in recent years, highlighting Khamenei’s trust and satisfaction with Arafi. Khamenei appointed Arafi as the Qom Friday Prayer Leader in 2015, head of all seminaries across Iran in 2016, and a member of the Guardian Council in 2019, for example.[21] The Guardian Councill is responsible for supervising elections and screening legislation.
The IDF outlined a three-phase plan to achieve air superiority over western and central Iran.[22] Achieving air superiority over these areas will help the combined force achieve their stated objectives.[23] The first phase involves dismantling Iranian air defense systems and missile launchers in western Iran, the second phase involves achieving air superiority over western Iran and “paving the way to Tehran,” and the third phase involves achieving air superiority over Tehran.[24] The IDF used a similar approach during the June 2025 Israel-Iran War.[25] This strategy enabled the IDF to achieve air superiority over large parts of Iran and subsequently achieve its objectives of degrading the Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile programs. The IDF continued to target Iranian missile launchers and air defense systems in Iran on March 1.[26]
Iran may have started attacking vessels around the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the combined strike campaign. Iran seeks to impose a cost on the United States and its partners and compel them to pursue a ceasefire before achieving the objective of toppling the regime. United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that a vessel was struck by an unspecified projectile around 17 nautical miles northwest of Mina Saqr, the United Arab Emirates, on March 1.[27] The strike caused a fire, but the vessel's crew was able to extinguish the fire and resume their journey.[28] UKMTO separately reported that an unspecified projectile struck a vessel around 50 nautical miles north of Muscat, Oman.[29] The strike caused a fire in the vessel's engine room, but the vessel's crew was able to get the fire under control.[30] A European Union official told Reuters on February 28 that the IRGC warned vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz that “no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz.”[31] TankerTrackers assessed that Iran hit one of its own vessels.[32] ISW-CTP cannot verify this claim.
The combined force has continued to strike Iranian missile launchers to limit Iran's ability to conduct retaliatory attacks targeting US bases, Israel, and other targets. The IDF struck a missile base north of Qom City, Qom Province, on March 1.[33] The IDF said that Iran stores and launches Ghadr 1-H ballistic missiles at the site.[34] Ghadr missiles are medium-range ballistic missiles with a range of 1,950 kilometers.[35] Iran previously used Ghadr missiles during its April and October 2024 attacks on Israel.[36] The IDF struck the Qom site in June 2025. The IDF also confirmed that it struck a ballistic missile launch site at the Khomein Missile Base in Markazi Province on February 28.[37] The IDF struck this base at least twice during the June war.[38] Commercially available satellite imagery captured on March 1 shows damage to two structures at a missile site in Garmdareh, Alborz Province.
The IDF also struck IRGC bases to degrade the Iranian ballistic missile program. The IDF likely struck the IRGC Aerospace Force Bakhtaran (Panj Pelleh) underground missile base near Kermanshah City, Kermanshah Province.[39] An Iranian journalist posted footage of smoke rising from the hills near the IRGC Najaf-e Ashraf Operational Base on March 1.[40] The Bakhtaran (Panj Pelleh) underground missile base is located about two kilometers east of the Najaf-e Ashraf Operational Base. The Bakhtaran (Panj Pelleh) underground missile base reportedly stores Qiam-1 and Fateh-110 ballistic missiles.[41]
The IRGC announced on February 28 that it will launch the “most devastating offensive operation in the history of the Islamic Republic” targeting US bases and Israel.[42] The IRGC made this announcement several hours after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was confirmed killed.[43] Iran has continued to target US and allied bases in the region on February 28 and March 1, including in the Gulf and Iraq.[44] Satellite imagery captured on February 28 showed several fires at the Ali al Salem Airbase in Kuwait, which hosts both US and Kuwaiti forces.[45] An Iranian drone also struck a naval base in Abu Dhabi, the UAE, that hosts French forces.[46] The Artesh announced that the Artesh Air Force targeted US bases in the Gulf.[47]
The Artesh also announced on March 1 that it conducted strikes targeting the Iraqi Kurdistan Region.[48] Iran fired projectiles targeting Erbil Airport, as evidenced by social media footage showing air defenses engaging unspecified projectiles over the airport and satellite imagery captured on February 28 showing smoke rising over the airport.[49] Iran previously launched ballistic missiles and drones at the US Consulate in Erbil, a US base at the Erbil Airport, and the United States’ Harir Airbase in Erbil Province on February 28, but air defense systems intercepted the munitions.[50]
Iranian missiles and drones have continued to impact civilian infrastructure in several Gulf countries on February 28 and March 1. Iranian ballistic missiles and drones have struck civilian infrastructure, including airports, hotels, and ports, in Bahrain, the UAE, Qatar, and Oman since ISW-CTP’s last data cutoff.[51] The Emirati Defense Ministry reported that Iran launched 332 drones, 28 ballistic missiles, and two cruise missiles at the UAE on March 1.[52] Twenty-one Iranian drones struck civilian sites in the UAE, including the Dubai Airport, Dubai's Zayed Port, and other civilian buildings, in Abu Dhabi.[53] OSINT accounts on X have estimated that Iran has launched between 300 and 500 missiles and between 270 and 500 drones since the US and Israeli campaign began on February 28.[54]
ISW-CTP has not observed any impacts on Israeli military positions as of this writing. An Iranian missile hit Beit Shemesh, west of Jerusalem, killing nine people.[55] Iranian missiles or interceptor fragments also impacted Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and Haifa.[56] An Iranian missile and drone crashed in southern Syria, likely en route to Israel.[57]
Protesters attempted to storm the Green Zone in Baghdad following the combined force's killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.[58] The US Embassy is located in the Green Zone. Some of the protesters displayed flags of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias and chanted anti-American slogans.[59] Police fired tear gas and stun grenades at the protesters.[60] The US Embassy in Baghdad issued a nationwide security alert on March 1 and suspended consular services.[61]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-morning-special-report-march-1-2026/
01MAR2026 Sal Maglaniano
Ships Stranded at Hormuz: 1 March 2026 Update | Is the Strait Open or Closed?
With ships holding outside the Strait of Hormuz following the United States and Israel attack on Iran, is the Strait Closed or Open and what does this mean for global shipping, the oil industry, and for you at the pump. This episode will look at the events of the last 24 hours regarding shipping and what impact this will have on the global tanker fleet and market.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcdNGlbep1M
The closing of the straight is meaningless. When the Iranian capability is destroyed, the straight will reopen
The straight is not the top priority at present
agree
Of much greater importance is the Iranian attack on the Ras Tanura Refinery.
We will see what happens but I believe the Saudi response will be limited to that previously agreed with the American and IDF efforts.
The goal is not to harm Iran and the Iranians but rather the remains of the regiem. I would hope that Saudi has been assigned or recommended specific military targets on which to retaliate. Ditto for UAE.
Iran Update Morning Special Report, March 2, 2026
US sources told a US journalist that Iranian Shahed drones are “so far the most dangerous threat.” The sources stated that Iranian Shahed drones are getting through some air defenses. CTP-ISW has not observed reports of drone impacts in Israel, but Iranian drones have struck several Gulf countries. Iran has primarily used ballistic missiles to attack Israel, but has relied on drones to attack Gulf countries.
more + maps https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-morning-special-report-march-2-2026/
Iran Update Evening Special Report, March 2, 2026
The Houthis could target Emirati, Israeli, or US military positions in the Horn of Africa if it joins Iran’s regional retaliatory campaign.
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-evening-special-report-march-2-2026/
Iran Update Morning Special Report, March 3, 2026
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-morning-special-report-march-3-2026/
Iran Update Evening Special Report, March 3, 2026
The combined force has designed its campaign to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities before the force depletes its interceptor stockpiles. Both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have emphasized that they seek to degrade Iran’s ballistic missile program.[1] Both leaders hope to protect their respective interests by preventing Iran from rebuilding its ballistic missile program, to be sure, but the strikes against ballistic missile launchers also have the immediate effect of preventing further Iranian missile launches that require interceptors to stop. The destruction of these launchers mitigates the risk that either the United States or Israel will run out of interceptors by limiting Iran’s ability to launch missiles in the first place.
The decrease in Iranian missile attacks against Israel strongly suggests that the effort to destroy ballistic missile launchers has had considerable success. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) assessed on March 3 that the combined force has destroyed around 300 launchers since the war began.[2] Israel’s public broadcaster and other open sources reported that missile attacks on Israel have decreased sharply, which—combined with the IDF assessment that it has destroyed 300 Iranian launchers—strongly suggests that the effort to destroy launchers has been successful.[3] The number of missiles targeting the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has similarly fallen sharply, which suggests that Iran is also experiencing challenges with launching its short-range ballistic missiles.[4] The UAE, like Israel, has faced hundreds of missile attacks.
The IDF struck key decision-making institutions on March 3 as part of an effort to disrupt senior decision-making. The IDF struck the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), the Presidential Office, and the Assembly of Experts building in Tehran on March 3.[22] Israeli media reported that around 100 fighter jets dropped over 250 bombs on Iran’s “leadership complex,” which contains the above sites.[23] The SNSC is Iran’s highest national security and foreign policy decision-making body.[24] The attack on the SNSC follows earlier US-Israeli strikes that killed senior officials who were members of the council, including former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Mohammad Pakpour and former Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS) Chief Major General Abdol Rahim Mousavi.[25] The Assembly of Experts is an 88-member clerical body that is responsible for appointing and supervising the Supreme Leader, according to the Iranian constitution.[26] Strikes that disrupt or prevent the Assembly of Experts from fulfilling its constitutional duty to select the next Supreme Leader would undermine the legitimacy of the regime because the regime is based on the principle of Velayat-e Faqih, in which a jurist, the Supreme Leader, controls Iran.
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-evening-special-report-march-3-2026/
The latest update from the Joint Maritime Information Center on the Situation in the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and Suez Canal, along with information on port closures, insurance, and why the ships are still holding on each side of Hormuz.
Iran Update Morning Special Report, March 4, 2026
The United States and Israel have continued to attack Iranian internal security institutions. The combined force also continued to target police stations, including an Iranian Cyber Police (FATA) station in Kermanshah, Kermanshah Province.
The US-Israeli combined force continued to degrade Iran’s ballistic missile and drone infrastructure in Iran. US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Admiral Brad Cooper stated on March 3 that the combined force has “severely degraded” Iran’s air defenses and destroyed hundreds of Iran’s ballistic missiles, drones, and launchers.
The combined force continued to target Iranian defense industrial sites. The combined force struck at least two buildings at the Khojir Missile Production Complex in Hajarabad, Tehran Province.
The combined force continued to attack Iranian naval capabilities. CENTCOM announced on March 4 that the United States has struck or sunk more than 20 Iranian ships.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported on March 4 that the number of ballistic missiles Iran has fired regionally has decreased 86 percent since the start of the combined force’s campaign on February 28, with a 23 percent decrease in the past 24 hours. The combined force has designed its campaign to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities before the force depletes its interceptor stockpiles.
Hezbollah has conducted several attacks targeting IDF positions and forces in northern Israel and southern Lebanon since ISW-CTP’s last data cutoff. Hezbollah launched two rocket attacks targeting Israeli forces in northern Israel, as well as a rocket attack targeting the Haifa Naval Base on March 3.
more + maps: https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-morning-special-report-march-4-2026/
New liveblog https://www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/202603053543
Thanx
Iran Update Evening Special Report, March 4, 2026
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted multiple strikes at several military compounds in southeastern Tehran on March 4 that house the headquarters of several services and branches of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as well as other internal security forces. The IDF strikes could be part of an effort to disrupt Iranian command and control, but these strikes could also seek to achieve other effects, such as suppressing and degrading Iranian retaliatory capabilities.
There are reports that Kurdish groups moving from Iraqi Kurdistan have begun a cross-border ground operation in Iran. ISW-CTP has observed no corroborating evidence of such an operation, and a senior Iraqi Kurdistan official denied on March 4 that any groups from Iraqi Kurdistan had begun a ground offensive in Iran.
The combined force destroyed more provincial sites of internal and external forces key to the armed forces’ domestic control over the population in Tehran and Kurdish-populated cities in northwestern Iran.
Iran has continued to launch a greater number of drones in its attacks as the number of ballistic missile launches continues to fall, which likely reflects the combined forces’ success in degrading Iran’s ability to launch ballistic missiles.
Iran will continue to attempt to disrupt international shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as part of a broader effort to impose a cost on the Gulf states using missiles and drones until the combined force degrades the ability of Iran to do so. The combined force has severely degraded the Iranian navy.
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-evening-special-report-march-4-2026/
Iran Update Morning Special Report, March 5, 2026
The combined force has continued to degrade Iran’s ballistic missile and drone capabilities to disrupt Iran’s ability to launch retaliatory attacks against Israel and US forces. The decrease in retaliatory Iranian drone and missile attacks strongly suggests that the US-Israeli effort to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile and drone capabilities has had considerable success.
The combined force has continued to target Iran’s internal security and government institutions. The strikes were concentrated in Tehran and northwestern Iran. The regime has historically been concerned about anti-regime activity in northwestern Iran.
Iran launched attacks targeting Turkey and Azerbaijan on March 4 and 5. These attacks mark the 10th and 11th countries to come under Iranian fire.
Hezbollah claimed that the group conducted 7 attacks targeting Israel Defense Forces (IDF) positions and forces in northern Israel and southern Lebanon since ISW-CTP’s last data cutoff at 4:00 PM ET on March 4. Hezbollah claimed on March 4 that its fighters engaged Israeli ground forces in Dhayra, Tyre District, and Khiam, Marjaayoun. These mark the first direct engagements between Hezbollah and the IDF since the fall 2024 Israel-Hezbollah conflict.
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-morning-special-report-march-5-2026/
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