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Iran Update Evening Special Report, March 3, 2026

The combined force has designed its campaign to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities before the force depletes its interceptor stockpiles. Both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have emphasized that they seek to degrade Iran’s ballistic missile program.[1] Both leaders hope to protect their respective interests by preventing Iran from rebuilding its ballistic missile program, to be sure, but the strikes against ballistic missile launchers also have the immediate effect of preventing further Iranian missile launches that require interceptors to stop. The destruction of these launchers mitigates the risk that either the United States or Israel will run out of interceptors by limiting Iran’s ability to launch missiles in the first place.

The decrease in Iranian missile attacks against Israel strongly suggests that the effort to destroy ballistic missile launchers has had considerable success. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) assessed on March 3 that the combined force has destroyed around 300 launchers since the war began.[2] Israel’s public broadcaster and other open sources reported that missile attacks on Israel have decreased sharply, which—combined with the IDF assessment that it has destroyed 300 Iranian launchers—strongly suggests that the effort to destroy launchers has been successful.[3] The number of missiles targeting the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has similarly fallen sharply, which suggests that Iran is also experiencing challenges with launching its short-range ballistic missiles.[4] The UAE, like Israel, has faced hundreds of missile attacks.

The IDF struck key decision-making institutions on March 3 as part of an effort to disrupt senior decision-making. The IDF struck the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), the Presidential Office, and the Assembly of Experts building in Tehran on March 3.[22] Israeli media reported that around 100 fighter jets dropped over 250 bombs on Iran’s “leadership complex,” which contains the above sites.[23] The SNSC is Iran’s highest national security and foreign policy decision-making body.[24] The attack on the SNSC follows earlier US-Israeli strikes that killed senior officials who were members of the council, including former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Mohammad Pakpour and former Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS) Chief Major General Abdol Rahim Mousavi.[25] The Assembly of Experts is an 88-member clerical body that is responsible for appointing and supervising the Supreme Leader, according to the Iranian constitution.[26] Strikes that disrupt or prevent the Assembly of Experts from fulfilling its constitutional duty to select the next Supreme Leader would undermine the legitimacy of the regime because the regime is based on the principle of Velayat-e Faqih, in which a jurist, the Supreme Leader, controls Iran.

https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-evening-special-report-march-3-2026/