Posted on 10/08/2022 1:05:38 PM PDT by nuconvert
Iranian Regime national tv Channel One hacked about an hour ago. During a broadcast of Khamenie speech, a red crosshair appeared over his face and chanting of Women. Life. Freedom. There was writing to the side saying "Rise up. Join us". Also 4 photos at the bottom of the screen of young people killed and additional writing: "The blood of our youth is dropping from your paws".
Also, there was a huge banner in the middle of Tehran highway today that read: We are no longer afraid of you. We will fight.
Also, attempted attack on IRI ambassador in Denmark. Her bodyguard was stabbed. Diplomatic Security intervened before the attacker could stab the ambassador.
Protest coordinators and organizations have called for countrywide demonstrations from November 15 to 17 to commemorate the three-year anniversary of the Bloody Aban protest wave in November 2019. Citizens took to the streets in around 100 cities in the Bloody Aban protest wave in response to a sudden regime decision to cut fuel subsidies.
Iranian clerical, political, and security leaders are arguing to the domestic population that the collapse of the Islamic Republic would lead to chaos and civil war.
At least 12 protests took place in 10 cities across nine provinces.
Unidentified militants killed a member of the IRGC Ground Forces 25th Karbala Operational Division at an unspecified location in northwestern Iran.
Senior Shia cleric Ayatollah Asadollah Bayat Zanjani issued a fatwa requiring Muslims to defend themselves and others if an armed stranger attacks them, according to anti-regime outlet IranWire.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-november-12
Wagner Group Financer Yevgeny Prigozhin asked the Russian Prosecutor General's Office to open a case against St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov for high treason amid viral footage of Wagner forces murdering one of their own.[19]
Prigozhin and Russian nationalist milbloggers largely supported the murder of the alleged traitor.[20]
The Russian military grouping stationed in Belarus continues to generate social tensions among Belarusians.[21]
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.[22]
Ukrainian forces continued to consolidate control over the right bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.[23]
Ukrainian forces struck a Russian military base in Chaplynka, Kherson Oblast, 50km south of Beryslav on the eastern bank of the Dnipro.[24]
Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations in the directions of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar.[25]
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces captured Mayorsk, southeast of Bakhmut.[26]
Russian forces continued routine indirect fire against frontline settlements in Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.[27]
Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia City with an Iskander missile.[28]
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the demobilization of mobilized students in Russian-occupied Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, likely as part of an ongoing effort to integrate proxy forces into the Russian Armed Forces.[29]
Russian forces and occupation officials are forcibly mobilizing men in Russian-occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, and forcing them to construct trenches and defensive fortifications in the city.[30]
Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces are withdrawing from the left bank of the Dnipro River and concentrating forces and equipment in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, and Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast.[31]
Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed an amendment to a draft law that would allow Russian officials to revoke Russian citizenship for disseminating “false” information about the Russian military, participating in extremist or undesirable organizations, or calling for violations of Russian “territorial integrity.”[32]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-13
Ref [32] includes this about citizenship
In addition, the bill reduces the number of requirements for more than 20 categories of applicants for the acquisition of Russian citizenship. The document also expands the powers of the president to determine the categories of persons who are eligible for simplified citizenship.
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5666902
Is this for people like Steven Seagal (that already is a Russian citizen)?
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on November 12 and may have discussed Iranian ballistic missile sales to Russia.
At least 12 protests took place in seven cities across five provinces.
The mistreatment of imprisoned Iranian human rights activist Hossein Ronaghi may reinvigorate ongoing, anti-regime protests.
The Iranian judiciary issued preliminary sentences against protesters arrested in Tehran Province, including one death sentence.
Israeli combat aircraft conducted an airstrike against on a likely Iranian precision-guided munition cache at Shayrat Airbase, Homs Province, Syria.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-november-13
IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, NOVEMBER 14
Protest activity and strikes will likely increase from November 15 to 17.
Social media accounts are increasingly framing the ongoing protests as the culmination of past protest waves in Iran, which could increase protest turnout.
Former reformist President Mohammad Khatami called for reform in an Instagram post.
The IRGC resumed attacks on anti-regime Kurdish militants in Iraqi Kurdistan in retaliation for their perceived role in stoking protests.
At least 10 protests took place in nine cities across nine provinces.
Hardline parliamentarian Morteza Mahmoudvand criticized the 227 parliamentarians who signed a letter calling for the harsh and rapid prosecution of arrested protesters.
The New York Times published an article detailing human rights violations that the regime is committing against arrested children.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-november-14
IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, NOVEMBER 15
Protest activity increased significantly on November 15 to commemorate the three-year anniversary of the regime’s brutal crackdown on the Bloody Aban protest wave.
The regime’s abuse and mistreatment of children is likely one of the factors driving these enduring protests.
The IRGC will likely resume its campaign to expel US military forces from the region in the coming months.
At least 54 protests took place in 36 cities across 24 provinces.
Three security personnel may have died in the protests.
President Ebrahim Raisi sent First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber to Qom likely to unite influential clerics behind the regime and especially the Raisi administration.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-november-15
IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, NOVEMBER 16
Protest activity continued to surge, occurring in 29 cities in 19 provinces.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s efforts to discourage prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid from publicly criticizing the regime have likely failed.
A false claim is circulating online that the Iranian Parliament has sentenced 15,000 arrested protesters to death.
BBC published a purported leaked audio tape revealing internal disagreements within the regime over the cause of and correct response to the protests.
Unidentified gunmen shot and killed at least six people and injured at least 15 at a shopping center in Izeh, Khuzestan Province.
Unidentified gunmen shot at Basij and Law Enforcement Command (LEC) personnel, killing two, in Esfahan City, Esfahan Province.
The judiciary sentenced three protesters to death.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) or one of its proxies likely conducted a kamikaze drone attack on an Israeli-owned tanker in the Gulf of Oman.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-november-16
IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, NOVEMBER 17
Regime security personnel sustained relatively significant casualties.
Protest organizations are trying to sustain the recent high protester turnout for at least three to four more days.
At least 40 protests took place in 33 cities across 18 provinces.
The regime may be trying to blame the Izeh attack on the Islamic State (IS) as part of an effort to associate the protests with terrorism.
Likely Iranian proxies conducted a rocket attack on US forces in northeastern Syria.
Certain components of the ongoing protest movement in Iran may have reached the threshold identified in US military doctrine for a “latent and incipient” insurgency. American counter-insurgency doctrine, using a modified version of the Maoist insurgency framework, defines the lowest level of insurgency as follows:
“The first phase is latent and incipient. During this phase, activities include the emergence of insurgent leadership, creation of initial organizational infrastructure, training, acquisition of resources, and political actions, such as organizing protests. A group that eventually becomes members of an insurgency may simply be a legitimate political group at this stage. Governmental actions and changes in society can transform political groups into insurgencies.”[1]
Anti-regime outlet Iran International published purported leaked memos from the Artesh Ground Forces on November 17.[60] The Artesh Ground Forces reportedly issued a memo on November 7 requiring unit commanders to report daily whether any service members or their families participated in anti-regime protests or used anti-regime language. The Artesh Ground Forces reportedly issued a second memo on November 9, warning that anti-regime actors may sabotage military facilities. If true, these memos indicate that Artesh leadership is concerned about service members and their families joining and sympathizing with protesters. The English-language version of the Iran International article mischaracterized these memos, however, reporting that they “show that [Artesh] staff and their families have been supporting the popular anti-government protests since September.”[61] There is no information in the memos to corroborate this claim nor can CTP verify their authenticity.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-november-17
he Canadian Security Intelligence Service said it’s aware of state actors from the Islamic Republic of Iran monitoring and intimidating people inside Canada to silence those who speak out publicly against the regime.
“CSIS is actively investigating several threats to life emanating from the Islamic Republic of Iran based on credible intelligence,” CSIS spokesperson Eric Balsam said in a media statement to CBC News.
“Ultimately, these hostile activities and foreign interference undermine the security of Canada and Canadians, as well as our democratic values and sovereignty.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/csis-iran-threats-1.6656753
” state actors from the Islamic Republic of Iran monitoring and intimidating people inside Canada to silence those who speak out publicly against the regime.”
Been going on for decades
Reports that protesters set fires at Khomeini’s home, now a museum.
The ongoing, anti-regime protests are likely creating fractures among senior regime officials within the Iranian security establishment and may have led to the departure of Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani.
Iraqi Kurdistan is at risk of invasion by Turkish forces from the north and Iranian forces from the east.
At least 33 protests took place in 31 cities across 13 provinces on November 18.
Prominent Sunni Cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid continued to criticize the regime's violent protest suppression response on November 18 during his weekly Friday prayer sermon.
Protesters allegedly burned the former home of Islamic Republic Founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in Khomein, Markazi Province on November 17.
Details:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-november-18
IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, NOVEMBER 19
Unverified reporting suggests that the regime deployed the IRGC Ground Forces to violently suppress protests in Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province on November 19, marking a violent escalation in the regime’s response to protests.
The number and scale of ongoing, anti-regime protests have intensified and become increasingly violent in recent days.
Protests occurred in at least 20 cities in 10 provinces. 14 protests with 100 or more estimated participants took place in nine cities across six provinces on November 19.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei continued to blame anti-regime demonstrations on Western actors on November 19.
Israeli combat aircraft conducted airstrikes against multiple Syria Arab Army and IRGC or Iranian proxy militia positions in western Syria on November 19.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-november-19
IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, NOVEMBER 20
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has likely issued an unpublished directive to violently suppress anti-regime protests within the past few days.
The IRGC Ground Forces Hamzeh Seyyed ol Shahada Northwestern operational base announced that it is reinforcing its forces on November 20, suggesting that crackdowns will likely endure and may extend to other cities throughout the region.
The IRGC attacked a series of anti-regime Kurdish militia positions in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Protests occurred in at least 18 cities in eight provinces. At least six protests with 100 or more estimated participants took place in six cities across four provinces on November 20.
Tehran Judiciary officials sentenced a sixth arrested protester to death on November 20.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-november-20
#IRGC Ground Force has invaded city of #Javanrud where people were protesting against #Iran’s Islamic Regime today. Armed with AK-103 assault rifles & DShK-M heavy machine guns, they are shooting at people’s houses & cars.
https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/1594487577704157184
At least two people have been killed today in Javanroud after the Islamic Republic’s security forces opened fire on people, @HengawO reports.This video, obtained by
@IranIntl, shows them shooting directly at protesters
https://twitter.com/IranIntl_En/status/1594624951960489984
Hundreds of Protesters in Iran Blinded by Metal Pellets and Rubber Bullets
https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/1594484901901910017
A wave of resignations has started among presenters and hosts at Iran’s state broadcaster in solidarity with the ongoing protests across the country.
At least three presenters have resigned in the past few days. Farhad Fakhrbakhsh, who hosted a show about programs of the Islamic Republic’s broadcaster for over four years, announced his resignation on Saturday.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202211205350
“A wave of resignations has started among presenters and hosts at Iran’s state broadcaster in solidarity with the ongoing protests across the country.”
Worth saying again.
Reports that regime has arrested signers of an online petition calling for the demise of the IRI regime and return of Reza Palavi
A video obtained by @IranIntl shows people in Tehran’s Shahran district celebrating & chanting “Death to Dictator” after England scores its 3rd goal against Iran in ongoing match. Team Melli has been widely called “Islamic Republic's team” for not supporting popular uprising.
https://twitter.com/IranIntl_En/status/1594697046266716166
Ahead of the World Cup match between Iran and England, a group of Iranian fans are seen outside the venue of the match waving the Lion and Sun flag, the official flag of Iran before the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
https://twitter.com/IranIntl_En/status/1594658241384173569
The Iranian regime has adopted what increasingly resembles a counter-insurgency approach rather than a counter-protest one to manage the ongoing unrest.
The regime has expanded its internet and telecommunications disruptions, limiting the amount of open-source information available on the situations in northwestern and western Iran.
Parliamentarian Jalal Mahmoud Zadeh called for an investigation into the regime crackdown in Mahabad on November 21—the latest dissent by a lawmaker representing a location in which the regime has conducted a brutal crackdown.
Iranian ambassador to Iraq Mohammad Kazem Al-e Sadegh issued an ultimatum with a deadline in 10 days for Iraq to disarm Kurdish militant groups or face unspecified consequences.
At least 16 protests took place in 12 cities across eight provinces.
LEC Fars Provincial Commander Brigadier General Roham Bakhsh Habibi announced the arrest of eight members of the Shiraz Neighborhood Youth.
Several dozen Sunni clerics and religious leaders in Kurdistan Province issued a video statement expressing support for the protesters.
Supreme Leader Military Adviser IRGC Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi warned that protests will continue unless the regime addresses the people's frustrations.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-november-21
Javad ul-Aemmeh Seminary (Religious School) in #KhomeiniShahr was set on fire by protesters tonight. Within past several weeks, tens of Islamic Schools and Seminaries have been burned down by #Iranian protesters across #Iran.
video
https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/1595182729947127809
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-november-22
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