IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, NOVEMBER 17
Regime security personnel sustained relatively significant casualties.
Protest organizations are trying to sustain the recent high protester turnout for at least three to four more days.
At least 40 protests took place in 33 cities across 18 provinces.
The regime may be trying to blame the Izeh attack on the Islamic State (IS) as part of an effort to associate the protests with terrorism.
Likely Iranian proxies conducted a rocket attack on US forces in northeastern Syria.
Certain components of the ongoing protest movement in Iran may have reached the threshold identified in US military doctrine for a “latent and incipient” insurgency. American counter-insurgency doctrine, using a modified version of the Maoist insurgency framework, defines the lowest level of insurgency as follows:
“The first phase is latent and incipient. During this phase, activities include the emergence of insurgent leadership, creation of initial organizational infrastructure, training, acquisition of resources, and political actions, such as organizing protests. A group that eventually becomes members of an insurgency may simply be a legitimate political group at this stage. Governmental actions and changes in society can transform political groups into insurgencies.”[1]
Anti-regime outlet Iran International published purported leaked memos from the Artesh Ground Forces on November 17.[60] The Artesh Ground Forces reportedly issued a memo on November 7 requiring unit commanders to report daily whether any service members or their families participated in anti-regime protests or used anti-regime language. The Artesh Ground Forces reportedly issued a second memo on November 9, warning that anti-regime actors may sabotage military facilities. If true, these memos indicate that Artesh leadership is concerned about service members and their families joining and sympathizing with protesters. The English-language version of the Iran International article mischaracterized these memos, however, reporting that they “show that [Artesh] staff and their families have been supporting the popular anti-government protests since September.”[61] There is no information in the memos to corroborate this claim nor can CTP verify their authenticity.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-november-17
he Canadian Security Intelligence Service said it’s aware of state actors from the Islamic Republic of Iran monitoring and intimidating people inside Canada to silence those who speak out publicly against the regime.
“CSIS is actively investigating several threats to life emanating from the Islamic Republic of Iran based on credible intelligence,” CSIS spokesperson Eric Balsam said in a media statement to CBC News.
“Ultimately, these hostile activities and foreign interference undermine the security of Canada and Canadians, as well as our democratic values and sovereignty.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/csis-iran-threats-1.6656753
Reports that protesters set fires at Khomeini’s home, now a museum.
The ongoing, anti-regime protests are likely creating fractures among senior regime officials within the Iranian security establishment and may have led to the departure of Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani.
Iraqi Kurdistan is at risk of invasion by Turkish forces from the north and Iranian forces from the east.
At least 33 protests took place in 31 cities across 13 provinces on November 18.
Prominent Sunni Cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid continued to criticize the regime's violent protest suppression response on November 18 during his weekly Friday prayer sermon.
Protesters allegedly burned the former home of Islamic Republic Founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in Khomein, Markazi Province on November 17.
Details:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-november-18