Posted on 10/08/2022 6:08:28 AM PDT by Degaston
For the 2022 midterm elections the control of the US Senate is the biggest battle between the Republicans and Democrats with the race centered on 4 Senate races where the Democrats need to win 3 of them and the Republicans need to win 2 of them to have control. These races are Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada.
Not counting these 4 seats or any surprise upsets (i.e. someone whose odds are at least 3x as much as the other party's odds) the breakdown of the other 96 seats is 45 Dem, 2 Ind (both caucus with Dems), 49 Rep.
Details/links on data below:
100 Senate Seats 29 Carryover Republicans (not up for election) 36 Carryover Democrats/Ind (not up for election) 15 Solid Republican seats 9 Solid Democrat seats 11 Non-Solid (Dems need 5 for majority; Republicans need 7 for majority) 2 lean Dem, 5 lean Rep (i.e. odds between 3x and 10x more than other side on winning race) 47 Dem/I, 49 Rep (barring any huge shift) with 4 close races
2 leaning Dem CO 14-87 NH 18-82
4 close races GA 35-66 PA 42-61 AZ 44-62 NV 65-38
5 leaning Rep NC 76-25 OH 76-24 WI 79-21 UT 89-12 FL 89-11
Links for Data:
https://www.predictit.org/markets/17/US-Elections?filterIds=292 https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings
Note: Charlie Cook tends to be biased and have an agenda. However, he tries to appear relevant so he has to tapdance between his personal agenda and being relevant so he's a decent source for making sure I'm covering all the non-solid races with data from PredictIt. And then with this data you can see for yourselves where the battleground really lies - i.e. those 4 States which just happen to be 4 of the 6 closest States in the 2020 Presidential Election.
(Excerpt) Read more at predictit.org ...
Currently it appears that Laxalt may take out mantoes in NevaDUH but there are the vegas unions to contend with and hairy reids bony claws reaching from beyond the grave. Demokkkommies——promises made, promises delayed.
“WI 79-21”
I’m predicting current Senator Ron Johnson (R, WI) will be victorious.
I get two texts a day from that POS Jesse ‘Mandella’ Barnes begging me to send him a few bucks. His radical ways have been completely exposed.
And Senator Johnson WILL contest any ‘funny stuff’ in Dane and Milwaukee Counties.
On, Wisconsin! :)
I'd like to believe this, but my pessimistic side thinks that if the Dems win the Senate will act as it does now, and is the GOP wins...the Senate will act as it does now.
FWIW, I have more hope for the House, since the number of MAGA people will grow and perhaps reach critical mass, where the McCarthyites will be forced to act on their behalf.
Ha will go to Warnock
Just to be clear on what these numbers mean - the 79-21 numbers are the data on PredictIt where betters are putting their odds on what the final outcome will be in this particular race. It does not say anything about margin of victory expected for any particular candidate(s).
The key thing about the Senate is the role of Majority Leader in deciding the calendar, especially when it comes to confirming appointees. For example, why didn’t Merrick Garland get hearings -> confirmation vote in 2016? If Chuck Schumer had been Majority Leader you can bet that Merrick Garland would be on the US Supreme Court right now.
Republican county election commissioners in the toss-up states need to hold off of reporting election results until all the big city Dim counties have reported, so the Dim counties won’t know how many votes to manufacture. That won’t guarantee success, but will put the fraudsters in a quandary when they gin up their 3:00 a.m. vote dumps.
Trump encouraged Hershel to run. This one isnât working out so well. I sure hope Hershel can pul this out. Warnock is pure evil.
I was thinking that even when I was typing đ the one good effect of a GOP Senate is that fewer leftists get to join the judiciary. The cynical side of me thinks that it is because it is the one area of Senate work where bribery and kickbacks still isn't an issue, but we must be grateful for even small favors.
because the numbers are so huge in those districts...pretty easy to cheat.
The Senate doesn’t need any “control”. They haven’t done a damn thing in two years. Their pathetic old, demented pedophile is singlehandedly runnin’ this chicken coop into the ground now. The totally worthless Congress has run away and hid under a bed somewhere. America is run by der kleine FĂźhrer and he’s doing whatever his good little Nazis want him to do.
Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada
gosh those states seem so familiar
something about 2020
Republican county election commissioners in the toss-up states need to hold off of reporting election results until all the big city Dim counties have reported, so the Dim counties wonât know how many votes to manufacture. That wonât guarantee success, but will put the fraudsters in a quandary when they gin up their 3:00 a.m. vote dumps.>>> The problem here is the data feeds (yes internet captures of the voting results -— no live exit interviews) to the reporting services. Edison and AP(?). If they stop that then there will be no circus election night. At Certification time the press gets the numbers not before.
Yep. Johnson will still win, no matter what the odds.
Jesse is just in this race for the money. He knows it. We know it.
“The GOP in Nevada is leading in the Senate and gubernatorial races, as well as on the generic congressional ballot.”
Actually, Repubs are going to take both houses due to reduced voter fraud. The Red Wave was always there, including the last election.
There is one major reason voter fraud is going to be in check (at least more contained). That is because Trump made it center stage. There will be tens of thousands of more election watchers and lawyers. This will be the most closely-watched election in decades. Another Trump victory.
This message is partially aimed at the crybaby Freepers posting (not you Degaston) that Trump should keep his mouth shut up about the obviously stolen election. Elections have been stolen for decades, hopefully, voters will have a little more vote power (where their vote counts) thanks to Trump.
They are doing their best to help the dems. Between the media and corrupt elections, it’s hard to believe a conservative could ever get elected.
â> I’d like to believe this, but my pessimistic side thinks that if the Dems win the Senate will act as it does now, and is the GOP wins...the Senate will act as it does now.
You sound like you are suffering from Battered FReeper Syndrome
Itâs not your fault!
We meet in Room 411 on Tuesday nights at 6:40pm
Dress is whatever you want.
What you said! Even the underdog SF GOP has an election integrity team. I watched a box!!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.