Posted on 04/22/2020 7:02:10 AM PDT by taxcontrol
I have been informally tracking the mortality rate of Covid-19 by dividing the number of reported deaths by the number of confirmed cases. I see a trend developing that is concerning. I have been seeing the percentage increasing over time. When I started tracking, the rate was down around 2.8%. It has slowling been increasing and now it is around 4.8%.
The daily increase in confirmed cases is shrinking. At the same time, the virus is getting into “old folks homes”. Also at the same time, the government is giving monetary incentives for cases/deaths to be Covid.
Western Europe is seeing 13+% mortality rates. Socialized medical nations have a financial incentive for #BoomerRemover
If you pay attention to the hysterical media, you'll see that they use total cases or rising number of deaths to create maximum panic. Deaths are a lagging indicator, which let them drag out the panic. They don't look at daily new case counts, which are a leading indicator.
Calculation of mortality is challenging because we don't have all the data. This has been an issue since the first (mis)information started coming out of China.
I was not aware of this practice. Good information to know.
Agree...that’s what all this post “apex” testing is about. Fauci just has to make himself right.
We’ve now had two antibody studies out of L.A. and I believe Massachusetts that showed the rate of death is incredibly low. These are liberal bastions that have no vested interest in making the virus out to be less severe a crisis than it is. Now, unless these antibody tests prove to be coming up with false positives, there is no reason to look at any other death rate statistics. They are telling us that no statistics but antibody statistics can tell us anything remotely accurate about the true death rate.
The fatality rate since 3/22 (%)
Fatality Rate
1.34
1.27
1.45
1.52
1.52
1.64
1.76
1.75
1.84
2.06
2.38
2.47
2.57
2.73
2.86
2.97
3.24
3.43
3.56
3.71
3.87
3.95
4.03
4.22
4.43
4.55
4.62
5.27
5.33
5.36
5.49
The Confirmed rate increase since 3/22(%)
Confirmed Rate Increase
31.87
18.91
25.32
24.3
21.86
18.4
14.71
15.07
15.43
13.91
14.01
13.02
12.23
8.34
8.95
8.44
7.97
8.91
7.71
5.76
4.93
4.98
4.24
4.66
5.6
4.37
4.8
4.12
3.74
3.29
That was not called for, and this is not a ‘concern troll’ which you clearly do not understand.
A serious discussion is needed at al levels on this craziness.
A poster (above) made a good point about current infected and the time delay for current deaths. Read it.
There is also the fact that some states are reporting every death as COVID19 because they get more money- NY State was caught doing it- since the statisticians discovered there were no other deaths reported for any other cause... (statistically impossible)
Never underestimate the depths of human deceit.
Maybe it’s because they are calling ANY death where the person may have had COVID-19, a COVID-19 death. Man without parachute jumps from plane - dies of COVID-19. I’m not buying it.
But we were also told those antibody tests were “100% Specific” for COVID-19, which we learned the next morning they were not, so there’s that.
You have two unknown variables. No way to get an accurate trend.
There is financial incentive to inflate both numbers.
GIGO
2. Hospitals gaming the numbers to either get $13,000 or $36,000 per patient.
3. Lib politicians gaming the number to gain more resources and to hurt Trump.
If any patient has a fever, or cough, simple bronchitis, COPD, any symptom close to Covid even if they recover they will be listed as Covid patients, whether they live or die because early on the government said they will get paid. Especially if the patient is uninsured.
just pushing the cause of death to CV on more of the death in states...lies!
There is conjecture that the NYC virus came in from Europe, since NYC is a travel gateway,
whereas California may have gotten cultivars from Asia since they are the Western travel gateway.
Other possible explanations involve the rate at which the virus may have mutated.
Viri mutate readily due to their RNA simplicity, generally a single strand of genetic code.
Generally speaking, subsequent mutant cultivars of viri become less fatal as they mutate.
on Monday death toll in NC per Voxx tracking site was 177 in state with pop at 9.4 mil...on Tuesday it when to 233....I say BS! Someone reclassified a bunch of deaths from other categories to CV all of a sudden to bolster-up lies because the dimwit DEM GOV Cooper was starting to get a raft of sh8t over his rational of keeping state closed waiting on 2nd wave of CV deaths - hell when there hadn’t even been the 1st wave!
I know cause I started the campaign with days of constant twitting and now the state actually has a lot going on against him with momentum! on that!!
First case in NYC was a health care worker newly returned from Iran.
April 14th CDC moved the goal posts and changed the guidelines of reporting.
“As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths.”
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/
We will likely see a spike of deaths maybe for a couple of weeks due to the new guidelines and latency of the disease.
Most people catching a mild case can’t even get their doctor to get them a test, so they take the prescribed medicines, go home and recover and are never counted as a “Covid-19 case”. MOST of those being tested and shown in the “official” case counts were approved to be tested only because they had a sever case. It’s as if all the rest don’t exist.
Therefor the “positive case” numbers are hugely UNDERSTATED.
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