Posted on 04/08/2020 9:40:31 AM PDT by Mariner
Yesterday's thread here:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3832668/posts?page=1
Ratio, or percentage if you prefer, from: New deaths / Total deaths. It’s a work-in-progress, and yes it needs that axis labeled. Thanks.
That and so many people die from it. Getting hit by cars, having heart attacks, we were made for sprinting and occasionally running away from things. Not every day.
Thanks for your thoughts blueplue! All valid in my estimation. Another factor, of course, is the data reporting itself. On 3/26, NY’s data begin to stabilize, which may indicate additional scrutiny/emphasis of the process went into effect.
Yesterday, we reported on some new research that has just been published in the the Lancet, a journal of non-peer-reviewed research that is nonetheless viewed as an extremely credible resource. The report, published by scientists at a university in Shanghai, claimed that some COVID-19 patients showed few, or, even more alarming, no COVID-19 antibodies in their blood after recovering from the illness.
And now, another report highlighting the extremely concerning susceptibility that humans have to this virus has been released. Researchers in Seoul have found several cases wherein patients who've recovered from COVID-19 have seen the disease "reactivate", possibly because the virus was still lying dormant inside them, and had been reawakened, somehow.
Vit. D is a big factor. Those with darker skin have a more difficult time turning the sun into vitamin D which helps boost the immune system.
However, in England blacks have about the same population percent with CV as do whites. England has had a push for supplements and foods higher in Vit. D which may have helped those with darker skin there.
The drugs come from the private sector they are not manufactured by government!! If the pharmaceutical companies have a chance to make money they will make sure the drugs are out there!!
Excuse me I am a little old lady!!
https://summit.news/2020/04/09/biden-coronavirus-is-helping-my-numbers/
Imagine if president Trump said this. Imagine the MSM meltdown that would ensue.
Yes, he was.
He learned a lot about the lies of the CDC shortly later.
This is why h was so good in ignoring the CDC early on here in Dallas.
Yes, he was.
He learned a lot about the lies of the CDC shortly later.
This is why he was so good in ignoring the CDC early on here in Dallas.
“83% of the deaths were among those age 60 and older”
So about the same age-death distribution as many contagious illnesses...
“6,268 deaths in New York since the first mortality on March 14”
...just with a higher amplitude. By comparison, the last pandemic killed 10-15 people in the entire country in its first month. NYS loses 20-30 people per day during flu season in a bad flu year. So for the same duration, March 14 - April 9, 26 days, the flu kills 520 people in NYS. Already, today, 800 died from COVID-19 and they are only counting the ones in hospitals.
Of course, the flu, the common cold and many other contagious diseases don’t kill you directly. They weaken you so that opportunistic infections or other, preexisting conditions can take advantage of your weakened immune response.
No blame, man, just suggesting for clarification.
CFR is deaths/(deaths + recovered). DCR is deaths/cases.
CFR is usually calculated historically, but an “instantaneous” CFR is useful. As the bulk of cases resolve the CFR and DCR will converge, giving a picture of how close we are to the end, or at least a steady-state. For DCR the interval for the cases is fixed (right now the end point is “now”) but the death can occur at any time as long as it is one of the cases in the interval.
“Vit. D is a big factor.”
Got Milk?
None taken, and hopefully I've communicated my knowledge of this subject is poor. This has all been a huge learning curve for me. And I'm learning more everyday.
DCR is deaths/cases.
Without question - totally agree!
CFR is deaths/(deaths + recovered).
This, I question. And it seems even those specialized in the field have different ways of calculating case fatality rates. Many even disagree on what the term represents. Entomologists carry their calculations to an extreme, imho.
Back to your formula above, I'm not too sure how adding recovered to deaths before dividing up by cases is going to give a more useful number than cases / deaths - but I'd love to learn how it does.
As for plugging it in, and adding a column, that'd be very simple thing for me to do, if you like. :)
"Much has been made in the last few days of a disproportionate number of Afro-Americans falling to COVID-19. This is claimed to be a failing of our HCS. The questions are, though:Are a disproportionate % of a-A’s testing positive?
Are a disproportionate % of a-A’s dying in medium income or affluent areas, adjusted on a per capita basis?"
"I think it might wane, but I think it will come roaring back in the fall."
Thanks. That is what I have worried about. Waiting to see confirmation that the virus may be dormant in some who appear to have recovered.
Bad idea.
… “As an essential employee with ongoing exposure to patients testing for COVID-19, she follows this strict cleaning routine. “I take my shoes off, spray them down with disinfectant, go straight to the laundry room [and] put all my clothes in the washer. I start the washer and from there, [go] to the shower, before I touch anybody or say hello to an anybody,” she said. “In the morning we load the washer with soap and open the washer door so all I have to do later is put my clothes in the washer and turn it on.” “
Keep telling yourself that.
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