Posted on 04/01/2020 10:43:18 AM PDT by captain_dave
The Wuhan Flu is continuing to be a serious disease for America and the world. But I'm hearing more and more people expressing doubt they can remain solvent if this lockdown continues. Let us not win the battle but lose the war.
We have a workable treatment protocol with hydroxychloroquine, z-pack, and zinc. I believe the right move now is to get people back to work. We can all help each other by watching for flu symptoms and expediting treatment. A flu vaccine will follow.
The Press might scream that the President is putting people in danger, but most people I've spoken with in the Tampa Bay area of Florida think this pandemic and quarantine is way overblown. The real numbers we've seen show it's a serious flu, but it is not a plague. Unfortunately, the press and some States are acting like this is the Black Death. If we continue to keep America closed we will cause far more damage than any enemy could.
CLOWARD-PIVEN on STEROIDS!! This is to BRING DOWN AMERICA AND TRUMP!
BINGO!! JUst WAIT for the next one!
Every state has a map of the counties and you can see how many have the disease and how many have died.
Those here who long and pine for certainty are just fools.
Projecting a death estimate is based on lots and lots of variables each of which must be estimated and then summed.
None of the variables is actual reality. All are variable over geographical space and time and are unrelated within a certain category. Deaths in a Tennessee county have no comparative basis with a death in New Orleans or a Seattle nursing home.
The actual projection has a margin of error of 100,000 deaths.
So, it is foolish to bet on 100 k deaths.
I would also tell you about the limits of the models I used and tell you whether I was using biased data or unbiased data. I would also not allow the media to present my “estimates” as gospel truth. You seem to worship at the temple of government science. I do not, but respect your choice of who to place faith in. I choose to use my mind and my education. I have found that government science is often politicized science and have healthy skepticism about government scientific pronouncements.. Several decades ago did you believe it when CDC and others asserted that HIV was easily transmitted in the air?
Italy is at 13k deaths. and just starting to taper off, so safe to assume they will be at 25k minimum. We are over 5x as big as Italy, so it won’t be hard to get to 100k deaths here. We have more ICU beds, more money, fewer elderly, which could lower it. We have more overweight diabetics, so that will make it worse.
Depressions kill. I have a modest income, which is not threatened by the shutdown. You seem to think that all bankers are shylocks. What rock have you been sleeping under? If we tank the economy, there will be no resources to take care of the hurting and weak. If this continues too long, we could become Venezuela in short order and many more are likely to die than you could imagine.
Yup. If we are tracking Italy we’re on course to wind up in the low six-figures. No way to look at Italian numbers and view 2.2 million as anything but B.S.
Not that losing 100K lives isn’t tragic.
That could vary greatly though depending on how the experimental drug therapies work out.
Italy has the second oldest population in the world, invited 300,000 Chinese workers into the country and was totally unprepared for the pandemic. And, it isn’t getting anywhere near 100,000 deaths.
This virus is more contagious but it is not more deadly than the the once-in-a-decade flu. And, unlike Italy, we have and are increasing hospital and ventilator capacity before our hospitals are flooded.
Italy is 1/5th the size of the US, so the question is whether they get to 20,000 deaths.
Italy has 300,000 Chinese workers, we have almost 3 million Chinese immigrants. New York Chinese population of over 700,000. Italy was unprepared, New York is barely maybe prepared, how prepared do you think Detroit and New Orleans are?
2.2 million is the “do nothing, it’s just the flu” scenario. The US is obviously not going down that path, nor any country except maybe Brazil. Sweden may be taking the best approach with no forced shutdowns, but voluntary social distancing.
Woah. I must have been hallucinating. I saw you FReeper name and thought it first said Captain Trips.
NO way I would take any advice from anyone named Captain Trips.
More of the essential staff where I work at are coming back to work. Housekeeping, maintenance, etc. The buildings are big enough that social distancing is easily done. Workers wear masks and gloves. I was told they had a virtual class on fitting. The staff cafeteria is closed including the lounge. People just sit outside and eat their lunch.
Of course, the grousing started I am told - “I have to come in and the others don’t?”. Then someone told them there will probably be furloughs for some of the other employees and the grousing stopped pretty quick.
Ping.
Chinese immigrants aren’t likely traveling back and forth from China. The Italians workers likely were. Big difference.
China Will Rack Up Three Billion Trips During Worlds Biggest Human Migration
The Chinese immigrants in Italy were welcomed there and were going back and forth between the two countries.
Trump restricted travel to China in January while Italy was doing nothing.
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