Posted on 03/31/2020 9:38:35 AM PDT by Mariner
Yesterday's thread here:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3829893/posts?page=1
the good new is that you can spot them a mile away.
One of my rules of thumb:
Whenever anyone says “we”, run for your life!
CA
7,482 in California, including 2,283 in the Bay Area.
153 in [deaths] California and 55 in the Bay Area.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Coronavirus-live-updates-news-bay-area-15151165.php
What you should be watching are the daily tallies. This is what all the discussion of exponential series is about. And, for whatever reason, luck, lock down, act of God, you name it, the dailies flattened 10 days ago in Italy and are remaining so. Since the US is running approx 8 days behind, Italy provides a really good leading indicator.
Not to say we're out of the woods, and definitely not to say we didn't get a good scare. Incidentally, one sufficient to entirely alter the way US/global bio-defenses & daily travel/exchange procedures are going to be (re)structured going forward.
Here are the last 14 days in Italy (as of 3/31 just reported) vs US (net of NY, our domestic Hubei). US is actual 6 days, 8 days projected based on event to date relationship pattern [ratio] with Italy.
Italy 12,428 US (net NY) 1,744 NY 1,224 (41%) US total 2,968
Seattle Police Chief Tells People To Call 911 If They Hear ‘Racist Name-Calling’
Don’t the authorities have better things to do with their time right now? - https://reason.com/2020/03/31/coronavirus-seattle-hate-crime-speech-carmen-best/
Could be worse. The second Mrs. Lurkin texted a pic of coyote strolling down the streets in her trailer park.
Cedars-Sinai [LA] participating in major clinical trial of possible treatment for COVID-19
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/cedars-sinai-participating-in-major-clinical-trial-of-possible-treatment-for-covid-19/
Here’s Why Herd Immunity Won’t Save Us From The COVID-19 Pandemic - https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-save-us-from-the-covid-19-pandemic
I am an expat living in Holland, and while there is no complete lockdown here there are significant closures and restrictions.
Whether Holland’s quarantine-lite will work remains to be seen. Daily death reports have trended significantly higher and for a number of days the country has ranked the third or fourth highest in the world in number of deaths per million. Right now, excluding San Marino and Andorra, the top is Italy, then Spain, then Belgium and then The Netherlands.
Ultimately this strategy may work, but it is also very risky. Business is surely hurting, and there is a significant risk that the hospitalizations get out of hand.
Video of Putin sharing an elevator ride 6 days ago w the chief doctor of Kommunarka hospital Denis Potsenko who tested positives for #coronavirus
https://twitter.com/andrewsweiss/status/1244975433793372160
For example, when Trump came out Sunday, 3/29, and said (a) he expects 4/15 as the peak; and (b) aspirational target was 150k total, then anyone could quickly replicate their models being used. And, once that was accomplished, then it's entirely trivial to simply update their original projected estimates with current actuals.
So, with just two days actuals plotted against the original 3/29 forecast, here's how the wide the daily delta becomes. With CV fatal totals out 93 days dropping to 93k vs original projected 150k:
The anti-body tests will establish that one way or the other...should not have long to wait....
https://www.livescience.com/colorado-ski-town-coronavirus-antibody-testing.html
Life is hard. It’s even harder when you are stupid.
The disclaimer is that I am commenting before reading the entire thread of posts, which means it’s likely that someone has already commented on this glaring error.
>>> and rose sharply from the 1,218 killed over the preceding 24 hours. <<<
So... 332 deaths in 24 hours is a sharp rise from 1,218 deaths in 24 hours? Huh? If there actually were 1,218 deaths in 24 hours, then 332 deaths in 24 hours would NOT be a sharp rise.
That’s a lot of killing (1,218) in 24 hours, and a lot of rising sharply. So much for proofreading these days.
I would look on Etsy for home sewn masks, or the FB marketplace. I have to many projects of my own. Not sure when I will even get around to it.
I only plan to wear them in big cities and when I fly. I live rural and social distancing is what I’ve been training for my whole life. So happy that handshaking is now a thing of the past, possibly permanently.
Most obnoxious social grace ever.
The Netherlands is a small but very densely populated country. It is roughly the same area and roughly the same total population of New Jersey. It might be more appropriate to compare The Netherlands to New Jersey.
Right now New Jersey total deaths: 267
Right now The Netherlands total deaths: 1,039 (175 new reported today)
Number of cases is more difficult to compare since it is largely a function of testing.
It may also be that New Jersey and The Netherlands have different starting points and are at different stages in the epidemic bell curve.
In any event, the little country of cheese, wooden shoes and windmills is currently ranked #4 in the world (less San Marino and Andorra) in number of deaths per million population.
Not exactly a success story, at least not enough evidence of one to this point.
Churches were shut down during the 1918 epidemic.
Where do the other posters get the idea that this is a new thing?
Article that contains newspaper items from that epidemic:
“The T&D reported on Feb. 11, “CITY QUARANTINED OWING TO INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC — Drastic Means Used To Check ‘Flu’ Situation — All Places of Assembly Are Under Ban Beginning at Midnight — Low Mortality At Present Juncture — Diversity of Opinion as to Wisdom of Steps to Be Carried Out — Theatres, schools, churches and places of public assemblage of any and every nature will be closed after today in Orangeburg owing to the increasing presence of influenza and a decision reached by the city board of health last night.”
“Feb. 13, 1920, The T&D reported, “Influenza and the Churches — The band on assemblage, which has been invoked by the public health authorities, includes churches as well as other public places, but every now and then we hear a devout churchman say that there is no use to close up the churches, that to do so implies a lack of faith in the Lord.
“The idea that because a man is doing a good thing the Lord will keep him from having influenza is on a par with the idea that the Lord strikes down all liars.”
‘
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