[semantic]

A lot of people are speculating that CV has been in the US for about the same amount of time as China. That would mean that herd immunity is already widespread, and help explain why fatalities are (currently) below projections.

For example, when Trump came out Sunday, 3/29, and said (a) he expects 4/15 as the peak; and (b) aspirational target was 150k total, then anyone could quickly replicate their models being used. And, once that was accomplished, then it's entirely trivial to simply update their original projected estimates with current actuals.

So, with just two days actuals plotted against the original 3/29 forecast, here's how the wide the daily delta becomes. With CV fatal totals out 93 days dropping to 93k vs original projected 150k:

[cgbg]

The anti-body tests will establish that one way or the other...should not have long to wait....

https://www.livescience.com/colorado-ski-town-coronavirus-antibody-testing.html

[amorphous]

A lot of people are speculating that CV has been in the US for about the same amount of time as China. That would mean that herd immunity is already widespread, and help explain why fatalities are (currently) below projections.

Those people are wrong. Otherwise this would have occurred at least a month ago:

[impimp]

Not to be to anal - but I think top of graph should be more rounded. Almost like a bell curve. I don’t think that this point undermines your analysis. I do think it will continue to revise lower as actuals come in.

[calenel]

“A lot of people are speculating that CV has been in the US for about the same amount of time as China. That would mean that herd immunity is already widespread, and help explain why fatalities are (currently) below projections.”

That theory has been pretty well dismissed as illogical and since we know the distribution of case severities we’re missing a few million corpses that would be required to support it.

Once again, from a doctor I’ve known basically my entire life, who has been a doctor for 45+ years, who would tell me if this was the end of the world or if it was a nothing-burger: Testing is going on in hotspots, predominantly, and returning about 10% positives in those places. The distribution of case severities is known from complete contact tracing and the data from South Korea and the Diamond Princess. 80% of cases are mild or asymptomatic and those are already in the stats (were, prior to NYC exodus). Asymptomatic cases can transmit the disease, so if there were some huge pool of asymptomatics out there, hotspots would be flaring up everywhere, rather than the cases being concentrated in a relatively small number of metro areas.

I, and I’m sure, my doctor friend, would be happy to be wrong.

We also talked about China and Iran’s numbers and concluded that if we were all good Muslim Communists we would be immune to the virus.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

That would be nice. I’m still staying home for the most part until this sh*t is over.