What you should be watching are the daily tallies. This is what all the discussion of exponential series is about. And, for whatever reason, luck, lock down, act of God, you name it, the dailies flattened 10 days ago in Italy and are remaining so. Since the US is running approx 8 days behind, Italy provides a really good leading indicator.
Not to say we're out of the woods, and definitely not to say we didn't get a good scare. Incidentally, one sufficient to entirely alter the way US/global bio-defenses & daily travel/exchange procedures are going to be (re)structured going forward.
Here are the last 14 days in Italy (as of 3/31 just reported) vs US (net of NY, our domestic Hubei). US is actual 6 days, 8 days projected based on event to date relationship pattern [ratio] with Italy.
Italy 12,428 US (net NY) 1,744 NY 1,224 (41%) US total 2,968
