Perhaps the best government source for info on Covid right now is Gov. Cuomo of NY. Below is a link to his press conference today (second link), as well as a curve from another source (first link). But here are the things I heard:
• He emphasized the curve that this virus will be at least somewhat similar to all other viruses. The curve zooms up, flattens out, then turns down. We don’t know how high it will go, but it will turn down.
• The first signs to look for will be when the RATE OF GROWTH of the indicators slows. There is already one indicator that is slowing markedly—the number of hospitalizations (and people on ventilation). In his words, this is “dramatic” and a very good sign. Just a few days ago we were doubling every day, now only every six days. (My comment: The RATE of growth is statistically significant. This is what statisticians call the “second derivative.” This is the first sign of trends fizzling and dying.)
• Very large number of people are getting well and leaving their hospitals.
• We should control the panic (his words). (Not his words but mine, too many people are only seeing the increases now and cannot look beyond the near term which still looks very bad.)
• When testing is readily available, we could send people back to work immediately. There are already better, easier tests coming out.
• There is a very good supply of healthcare workers who are showing great bravery.
• New York has planned to accommodate sick people’s needs AT THE PEAK OF THE CYCLE. They are prepared.
Here are some charts that seem to mirror Cuomo’s projections. This source projects a mid-point number of death from this at 81,000 in the U.S.:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections?fbclid=IwAR3OgXBx5duzQ_7dHeQbV-LtFuvWjFE7kMFRTz7oGEe4fD9MjwfVHO5Q5Wg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxXnfwwlFWg
Cuomo is better at words than President Trump, though he has the voice of one of those 1930s Warner Bros gangster actors like Abner Bieberman. His speech the the NY Guard yesterday was classic.
Perhaps the best government source for info on Covid right now is Gov. Cuomo of NY. Below is a link to his press conference today (second link), as well as a curve from another source (first link). But here are the things I heard:
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Thanx for the tip grump.
I’ll stick with trump, pence, tony, deborah & their team.
Given Trump's extension of the current state til end of April, think that's about right.
Also by then we probably have ...
1. Real numbers on whether the therapies work (chloro, azri, zinc + others
2. We probably by then have at least started mass distribution of the antibody test which can identify who HAS had it regardless of if they got sick or ever even tested.
3. We probably have pretty good regular testing around then too
4. I bet Trump went with the 'deliver more than you promised' route with his end-of-April. Of course no one can completely predict anything but I'm SURE this is based off the best stat wizzes in the country.
5. So I bet things start to loosen up about April 24 and by that time we're well past the peak
6. Trump PROBABLY now is hoping he can announce on or before Easter that either we've peaked or more likely that there is clear statistical evidence to within a percent or so that the peak is entirely predictable w/in a few days.
Take what I say as not authority ... I am absolutely not one ... I'm just doing quick calcs and going by how Trump operates and certain obvious things we can almost certainly assume ... or at least assume that they are assuming.
I do THINK it will play out this way based on what I think are reasonable assumptions.
You trust seven rounds Cuomo?