Given Trump's extension of the current state til end of April, think that's about right.
Also by then we probably have ...
1. Real numbers on whether the therapies work (chloro, azri, zinc + others
2. We probably by then have at least started mass distribution of the antibody test which can identify who HAS had it regardless of if they got sick or ever even tested.
3. We probably have pretty good regular testing around then too
4. I bet Trump went with the 'deliver more than you promised' route with his end-of-April. Of course no one can completely predict anything but I'm SURE this is based off the best stat wizzes in the country.
5. So I bet things start to loosen up about April 24 and by that time we're well past the peak
6. Trump PROBABLY now is hoping he can announce on or before Easter that either we've peaked or more likely that there is clear statistical evidence to within a percent or so that the peak is entirely predictable w/in a few days.
Take what I say as not authority ... I am absolutely not one ... I'm just doing quick calcs and going by how Trump operates and certain obvious things we can almost certainly assume ... or at least assume that they are assuming.
I do THINK it will play out this way based on what I think are reasonable assumptions.
Thanks for this informed post, tinyowl.