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Corona Virus Daily Thread #29

Posted on 03/27/2020 9:27:41 AM PDT by Mariner

Yesterday's thread here:

http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3828581/posts?page=1


TOPICS: Health/Medicine
KEYWORDS: chinavirus; livethread
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To: BusterDog

So is Chevy’s career.


801 posted on 03/28/2020 12:13:22 PM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: blueplum

Nice find. Pink eye. Yes. That’s the weird redness I saw develop in the eyes of someone sick with something. That was about a month ago. Now we have covid in town. Although that was inevitable. My guess is people who are infected through the eye, will develop the pink eye long before other symptoms. Those infected through nasal cavity may develop it later in the disease progression.


802 posted on 03/28/2020 12:16:54 PM PDT by justa-hairyape (The user name is sarcastic. Although at times it may not appear that way.)
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To: cgbg

GMTO. Since the beginning I was reminded of this series. Hmmmm.


803 posted on 03/28/2020 12:19:34 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: Professional
It's because the danger from this virus all along has been morbidity, not mortality:

if enough people become ill to require hospitalization / ICU units / intubation, then medical facilities become swamped, crowding out other sick people and making medical professionals sick too.

Wipe that Panda jizz off your chin.

804 posted on 03/28/2020 12:19:35 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
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To: Fledermaus

What was the CFR rate in Italy from H1N1?
Troll-boi.


805 posted on 03/28/2020 12:20:33 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
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To: grey_whiskers

Bmk


806 posted on 03/28/2020 12:21:02 PM PDT by windsorknot
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To: mrsmith

New Orleans had Mardi Gras and (presumably) a disproportionate occurrence of close personal contact.


807 posted on 03/28/2020 12:21:35 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
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To: blueplum
Face shield plus N95. Will probably allow some to work up to a month safely. Without face shields and only N95, two weeks heavy exposure and they get it even if 100 % in protocol. The faceshield slows air flow going to the face and exiting from the face.
808 posted on 03/28/2020 12:25:19 PM PDT by justa-hairyape (The user name is sarcastic. Although at times it may not appear that way.)
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To: amorphous
I don't know about ACE2 expression. I'm basing it on the original studies in the 90s of metabolic syndrome. Lowering of triglycerides was immediate before weight loss. The important ratio was triglycerides/HDL. These were shown to change in days reflecting reversal of the syndrome.

Changes in protein expression is an unknown. Fasting will throw people quickly into autophagy which is part of the reversal in protein expression.

Ping me again later on the new thread and I will do some more digging.
809 posted on 03/28/2020 12:29:13 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: Black Agnes

There is nothing like a catastrophe to focus the mind.

Of course, for those without..


810 posted on 03/28/2020 12:30:02 PM PDT by CharleysPride
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To: Thud

Careful; I’ve read that steroids actually make the lung issues worse.
That was ~10 days ago so I no longer have the link.
Of COURSE I recommend you do your own original research on it.


811 posted on 03/28/2020 12:33:07 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
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To: PA Engineer

Not being an expert in epidemiology, I don’t know what R0 even refers to. Barring you or exdemmom explaining, I’ll presume it’s the point of inflection she keeps referring too where the infection rate starts to drop off.

As for engineering applications, I’m not expecting this epidermic to have regular periodic. As a matter of fact, it includes human behaviors with no real good models at all. If you trace back the conversation it started with ‘don’t try to extrapolate from interpolation solutions’. I did not suggest Fourier analysis. I suggested a low order Fourier fit might model the long term epidemic rise and fall.

Maybe you can do a better job of explaining how fitting the daily infection rate is going to provide a prediction of future rates than exdemmom. Seems to me you can’t predict until the inflection point has occurred or slightly after since R isn’t going to exponential until then. So you can collect data for a model to be used next time, but this model doesn’t get one to prediction all by itself.

As to apologies, I think I was about as polite and explanatory as one could be. And exdemmom was given every opportunity to ‘carry on’.


812 posted on 03/28/2020 12:33:44 PM PDT by Magnum44 (My comprehensive terrorism plan: Hunt them down and kill them.)
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To: blueplum

We are going to need good metrics to determine the best procedures to save lives and the economy. One such metric would be a bias function that allows different cities to properly compare infection rates with their testing rates normalized.


813 posted on 03/28/2020 12:38:09 PM PDT by justa-hairyape (The user name is sarcastic. Although at times it may not appear that way.)
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To: RummyChick
There are no approved treatments for coronavirus, but the CytoDyn’s drug is among the latest being tested to help save the lives of Americans with coronavirus, of which there are now well over 100,000 - and if it continues to show promise it could get FDA approval in as little as little as six weeks.

Anyone who ever worked for the FDA should be sent to Qom.

814 posted on 03/28/2020 12:39:11 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
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To: Paul R.

Those bats in China have thousands of viral species. Most harmless to humans. The number one bat expert in China, actually thought one of her lab viruses escaped after she was yanked out of a conference and put on fast train to Wuhan. You can have a natural virus escape a lab ya know.


815 posted on 03/28/2020 12:45:01 PM PDT by justa-hairyape (The user name is sarcastic. Although at times it may not appear that way.)
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To: Paul R.
• A dog owner comes home to the trash can tipped over and trash is scattered on the floor.

Of possible explanations a) The dog tipped the trash can over, or b) Someone broke into the house and sorted through the trash can, explanation “a” is more likely.


816 posted on 03/28/2020 12:47:29 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
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To: calenel

Wonder what portion of those DP unresolved are currently on ventilators ?


817 posted on 03/28/2020 12:49:07 PM PDT by justa-hairyape (The user name is sarcastic. Although at times it may not appear that way.)
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To: RaceBannon

Chris from peak progress estimated they were 1 to 2 factors off. Your posted estimate is in that ballpark. On the low side. Lol.


818 posted on 03/28/2020 12:51:25 PM PDT by justa-hairyape (The user name is sarcastic. Although at times it may not appear that way.)
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To: cgbg

I just blame it on auto correct. Lol.


819 posted on 03/28/2020 12:59:16 PM PDT by justa-hairyape (The user name is sarcastic. Although at times it may not appear that way.)
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To: firebrand

That’s a good point that actually contradicts the position of going back to work. People untested who feel weak or have a mild cold go back to work ? Obviously everything is a gamble now until everyone outside working is masked and gloved and goggled. Healthcare workers also need face shields. Everyone needs sealed goggles.


820 posted on 03/28/2020 1:11:41 PM PDT by justa-hairyape (The user name is sarcastic. Although at times it may not appear that way.)
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