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Corona Virus Daily Thread #29

Posted on 03/27/2020 9:27:41 AM PDT by Mariner

Yesterday's thread here:

http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3828581/posts?page=1


TOPICS: Health/Medicine
KEYWORDS: chinavirus; livethread
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To: PA Engineer

In one of the state updates I posted yesterday, they listed the underlying conditions that were associate with the fatalities. IIRC, biggest segment by far was obesity and diabetes, I think it was around 60 percent, but I can’t find the post. I’m sure it will come back up in the next state update. Lung issues had a much lower percentage, and that surprised me.


621 posted on 03/28/2020 5:59:31 AM PDT by LilFarmer
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Man, the flubros are worked up today.


622 posted on 03/28/2020 6:04:05 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: LilFarmer

Lil:

That makes sense to me. When folks figure out just how bad it is going to be in the US (because of the obesity factor) they are going to freak...


623 posted on 03/28/2020 6:04:58 AM PDT by cgbg (BOLO--escaped SNF resident--Joe Biden)
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To: BusterDog

I live near Springfield MA. Probably 150,000 pop. They have 20+ police officers out. They just got approval for 70 National Guard troops (probably MPs) who will get pulled from THEIR communities to come there.

No, that is not a major crisis. But, it leads me to ask how much we will be able to steal from Peter to pay Paul. It’s a small example of what we can expect in the large cities.


624 posted on 03/28/2020 6:11:23 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: EnquiringMind

This is one of the reasons our administration is saying “Don’t get a test if you don’t have symptoms.” It’s not only wasting a test but it can be deceptive to the person getting the test, who then maybe walks around as if normal.


625 posted on 03/28/2020 6:12:46 AM PDT by firebrand
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To: cgbg

One of the dirty little secrets the “it just NYC” crowd don’t realize is that New York City hospitals are among the very best in the world.

At the end of the day the NYC mortality rates (deaths/cases) will be _lower_ than the rest of the US (imho) despite all of the challenges facing NYC now.


626 posted on 03/28/2020 6:14:08 AM PDT by cgbg (BOLO--escaped SNF resident--Joe Biden)
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To: EarlyBird

I think we need to stop “hoping” that things will level off. It is pretty clear the trajectory in cities is pretty consistent.

There are those that think we are in the “middle” of this. I suggest a very high percent of the US hadn’t really begun yet. There will be an increase across the country following the same model of NYC.

There will be a thread #100 before this is in the middle.


627 posted on 03/28/2020 6:17:22 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: LilFarmer

Analysis of the epidemic growth of the early 2019-nCoV outbreak using internationally confirmed cases

Assuming the travel rate to the selected countries and regions is constant over the study period, we found that the epidemic was doubling in size every 2.9 days (95% credible interval [CrI], 2 days—4.1 days). Using previously reported serial interval for 2019-nCoV, the estimated basic reproduction number is 5.7 (95% CrI, 3.4—9.2). The estimates did not change substantially if we assumed the travel rate doubled in the last 3 days before January 23, when we used previously reported incubation interval for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), or when we changed the hyperparameters in our prior specification. Conclusions: Our estimated epidemiological parameters are higher than an earlier report using confirmed cases in Wuhan. This indicates the 2019-nCoV could have been spreading faster than previous estimates.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020941v1

Comment: the numbers I’ve been tracking in GA seem to fit this. When they were catching up testing, the rate was every other day, but now it appears to be closer to every third day:

3/6 - 3
3/7 - 5
3/8 - 7
3/9 - 12
3/10 - 17
3/11 - 20
3/12 - 32
3/13 - 42
3/14 - 64
3/15 - 99
3/16 - 121
3/17 x 141
3/18 - 197
3/19 - 287
3/20 -420 - 16 deaths
3/21 -555 - 20
3/22 - 620 - 26
3/23 - 772
3/24 - 1026 - 38
3/25 - 1387 - 47
3/26 - 1643 - 56
3/27 - 2198 - 65


628 posted on 03/28/2020 6:17:43 AM PDT by LilFarmer
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To: exDemMom
IHME Projected Peak Hospital Resource Use and Deaths

The projections assume the continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures.

16 days until peak resource use on April 14, 2020

Hospital Bed Shortage 49,292 at peak

ICU Bed Shortage 14,601 at peak

Invasive ventilators needed 18,767 at peak

2,341 per day COVID-19 deaths projected on April 13, 2020

Total COVID-19 deaths projected to August 3, 2020 in United States of America 81,114

http://covid19.healthdata.org

"The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent population health research center at UW Medicine, part of the University of Washington, that provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world's most important health problems and evaluates the strategies used to address them."
629 posted on 03/28/2020 6:20:47 AM PDT by BusterDog
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To: BusterDog

I call that our “first peak”.

Then we start up the economy, and then hit our “second peak”, which will be a lot bigger than the “first peak”.

and then repeat a few more times.... :-(


630 posted on 03/28/2020 6:24:21 AM PDT by cgbg (BOLO--escaped SNF resident--Joe Biden)
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To: a little elbow grease
here's hoping that we hear the words, "PLAY BALL

I really do think so, providing the politicians don't kill us. We can all handle the virus with some common sense :)

631 posted on 03/28/2020 6:24:53 AM PDT by JonPreston
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To: Paul R.

In police work, however, the Occam’s Razor principle is that the best solution is the one that involves the least amount of investigation.


632 posted on 03/28/2020 6:25:02 AM PDT by firebrand
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To: bgill
Can’t post the site on FR but do a search for Fauci, Event 201 and Bill Gates for their mRNA-1273 vaccine.

Follow the money and you’ll see why they oppose the hydroxycholoquine treatment.


633 posted on 03/28/2020 6:32:38 AM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
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To: LilFarmer

VA

Number of People Tested 9166
Cases: 739
Hospitalizations: 99
Deaths: 17

68.7% of the cases are under age 60
More data at link:

https://www.wdbj7.com/content/news/VDH-17-coronavirus-related-deaths-in-Virginia-739-cases-across-the-state-569186891.html


634 posted on 03/28/2020 6:35:09 AM PDT by LilFarmer
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To: cgbg

“At the end of the day the NYC mortality rates (deaths/cases) will be _lower_ than the rest of the US”

Hope you are right, I just saw the video about the public housing there.


635 posted on 03/28/2020 6:35:21 AM PDT by DEPcom
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To: BusterDog
I think they have answers, but like everything else, every topic devolves into competing sides pushing narratives to support their personal interest agendas that are hidden from us.

GEOTUS Trump has pulled back the curtain on much of the propaganda ("Fake News").

636 posted on 03/28/2020 6:35:36 AM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
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To: DEPcom

I have actually been inside NYC hospitals, and those folks are real pros who have seen _everything_....

If you are in really bad shape, those are the types of hospitals you want taking care of you.


637 posted on 03/28/2020 6:40:19 AM PDT by cgbg (BOLO--escaped SNF resident--Joe Biden)
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To: LilFarmer

ITALY

Italy - No coronavirus infections in this village in Lombardy
Today, 08:09 AM
Coronavirus, no infection in Ferrera Erbognone: analyzes begin

The country, in the province of Pavia, has a thousand inhabitants and nobody tested positive for Covid-19. Thus, the investigation into the immune system of the residents starts at the Mondino Institute

https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/20_marzo_27/coronavirus-ferrera-erbognone-nessun-contagio-partono-analisi-2ee492d6-7054-11ea-82c1-be2d421e9f6b.shtml


638 posted on 03/28/2020 6:40:42 AM PDT by LilFarmer
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To: RummyChick

Trump seemed to be saying yesterday that you are only being given the malaria drug if you would die without it. The same ethical principle as his Right to Try legislation.


639 posted on 03/28/2020 6:43:43 AM PDT by firebrand
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To: LilFarmer

Lil:

This little town also blows out of the water claims that most folks in Italy have already caught the disease but had mild symptoms... ;-)


640 posted on 03/28/2020 6:46:48 AM PDT by cgbg (BOLO--escaped SNF resident--Joe Biden)
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