Posted on 03/27/2020 9:27:41 AM PDT by Mariner
Yesterday's thread here:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3828581/posts?page=1
now that’s pretty cool. I want one.
Assuming it’s true...
To go that fast - must have been “stormed”, or maybe had some hidden heart problem?
One death of many, but so tragic anyway.
China running trials on giving Chloroquine
but how can that be? China has no new cases /s
That's about the POOREST characteristic one would ever want in a bioweapon. Unless of course one was suicidal.
Geez, people, THINK!
: perk :
Thanks.
great videos! the Chinese are crazy. Instead of pushing the cars to the side of the road, they just turn them upside down so they’re still blocking the road. Kind of defeats the purpose. If the purpose was to clear the road.
But if Jiangxi is setting up roadblocks to Hubei, there’s more infection that Li is letting on and the locals know it.
“Geez, people, THINK! “
I am so tired of hearing this virus was manufactured. It is far too weak and indiscriminate to be a bioweapon.
It simply crawled out of the fetid, filthy sewers of Wuhan where fresh remains of every conceivable animal and their feces intermingled with human waste, and eventually humans.
The most diverse and un-contained laboratory in the world.
No nation, no matter how evil, would endeavor to create this. As the impact on them would be just as bad, or potentially worse.
alcohol use?
It really gets old. But believers somehow know that it’s a bioweapon.
They just know it.
Though every scientist who has taken a close look at the genome says it’s natural.
Could they all be lying, or perhaps mistaken?
Sure, it’s possible.
I was wondering...if this thing kills a lot of our servicemen (and -women), is there a possibility that the draft would be reinstated?
so basically, if you’re not 7 days into hard breathing, they’re not going to admit you?
Actually, using Excel to fit curves was good enough to get my PhD and publish on my research. So I'm pretty comfortable with the program and the calculations. What I am looking for, actually, is any sign that the growth is slowing, which would be reflected in the graphs by a decreased R squared value on the trendline. At that point, it would be appropriate to start deriving the exponential equation for this disease--although I'm not going to do that, since I won't be publishing. As for the extrapolations, I am completely comfortable with making them, since, like any exponential growth function, the rate of growth follows a very predictable trajectory.
This is not even comparable to what the "climate folks" do. They have taken a faulty premise--that carbon dioxide's wide band of fluorescence in the infra red frequencies equates to an increase in the energy content of the atmosphere--and extrapolated all kinds of stuff from that. Garbage in, garbage out. The fields of microbiology, epidemiology, etc., have a LOT of data and research to validate the models regarding disease spread.
The only thing I can give you is that there is a good chance that tomorrow will be close to today. But your second order fit only goes one direction - up. You will need a much more complex equation, probably something that includes sinusoidal terms as well as a polynomial, to fit to to all the data once this thing has actually gone full cycle. Then you have a model that might represent the future, assuming nothing changes. But things always change. So it’s still best guess.
As I said above, I'm looking for a change in the R squared value, which could mean that the growth of cases is slowing. Sure, determining the actual exponential equation is a bit more complicated than using a polynomial (which I already know from a TON of experience is close to within a few thousands to the actual values calculated by an exponential equation). But it's not necessary, and I don't have the full data set in any case to determine the actual exponential equation. That's because I don't know and no one knows when the increase in new cases will slow.
They only wear the mask if sick?
Do they dispose of the mask after each day of use?
the shield hoods look easier to make than face masks. but the separate air supply might be a problem.
One doctor cured 350 out of 350 coronavirus patients he gave HCQ to.
Take a look at the “case” curves and the “death” curves at the Worldometer site:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
They look almost identical.
So much for the case data not meaning anything...despite its obvious flaws it turns out to be a proxy for the death rate...it predicts/shows the trend.
More importantly, it is a fair proxy for actual infections. It is probably off by a consistent factor, but since the known death rate is in the 1-2% rate with good care and higher with an overwhelmed health care system it is clear that it is not off by _that_ much, perhaps a factor of two or three at most.
That shows the lie of the “lots of people have mild cases and are now immune” FluBro meme that has infested parts of academe as well as the political world.
The numbers say that this drama is still just beginning—in the US substantially less than 1% would test positive even if everyone were tested.
If folks don’t like the real world, that is not the fault of the real world.
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