Posted on 03/26/2020 10:14:19 AM PDT by Mariner
Thread #27 here:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3828191/posts?page=1
https://twitter.com/BlackJackBoGre1/status/1243308511724888065
Faucci article in NEJM.
2.2 R0, maybe more like a severe flu.
“Air Craft Carrier Roosevelt going into quarantine. Crew members diagnosed”
Source?
A deployed carrier IS a quarantine.
That same person (who posted the Mt Sinai/DNR info) also said...
....I know first hand much of what the administration is stating in these pressers is false, because I see things to the contrary at my own facilities. I voted for Trump but it’s extremely frustrating listening to him and those around him telling the American people things that just aren’t true.
Most major medical centers already have or are drafting plans with their legal departments for this scenario. It’s going to be implemented at more than a few before this is done. There are even medical and ICU directors at major institutions ON THE RECORD stating as much. Anything said to the contrary is, at best, misleading.
==
So, there’s that. \o/
I will bet there is no pool of people that already had it - where are all the serious and critical cases that would have spawned from the totally uncontained wandering asymptomatic infected?
I will also pray to be wrong, and that we are developing an immunized population in the herd.
From the DP we know what the distribution of asymptomatic, mild, serious and critical cases are. SK has a similar distribution.
But NY is in the very early stages, so many of the infected are simply pre symptomatic. There are probably 100k infected in, or recently fled from, NYC. Ballpark. Give it a few days more to stabilize.
here are 2017 numbers. Rough adding in my head about 120K deaths a year ?
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/newyork/newyork.htm
Yeah...I was just trying to get a confirmation on POTUS’ task team’s date.
Didn’t know I’d get my head bit off, for asking...lol.
It is the 30th/Monday, right?
Thanks.
Will look at this more, in the a.m.
2018:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/569435/number-of-deaths-in-italy-by-region/
According to the study, a total of 68 000 deaths were attributable to flu epidemics in the winter months between 2013 and 2017.
https://www.2oceansvibe.com/2020/03/11/how-many-people-die-annually-from-flu-in-italy/#ixzz6HrG3EvJg
While it’s reasonable to assume there would be notable sever case if the virus is ‘out there’.
You know what they say about assuming.
After all, we know it’s very transmittable (latest estimate I’ve seen: R0 =2.2).
it’s reasonable to look for those immunized.
It doesn’t cost much or take away from other efforts.
Xi must be pleased with the plan’s progress.
I have no objection to the great Unicorn hunt.
I just find it an amusing variation on the denial theme.
Totally believable.
“If they did exist in large numbers they would be proof the virus is a nothingburger, since millions of people would have already recovered without incident, indicating herd immunity was almost at hand.”
It’s literally the very best thing that could happen to us. Better than a guaranteed vaccine available and freely distributable in 6 months even.
I don’t think it’s the case, but I’m comforted by the fact that at least some academics are saying they think it might be true.
Maybe they are just getting paid to say it by some industry people, who knows.
Thanks for reply. Curious that Covid-19 is so unique from the past corona viruses.
I know what you’re saying.
“Unicorn” isn’t a bad name for them.
But. you never know, for sure, if you don’t look.
First possibility that comes to my mind is that wirh our low pop densities people may get less doses and more easily recover, and be less likely to infect the weak.
It is valuable info even if it isn’t ‘good’.
Yes. It was started on the 16th so he said 15 days to take it to the end of the month. Most of TX is finished with their days on Apr. 3. Here in my county, they didn’t give an end date.
I do not attribute any bad motives to the Unicorn crowd.
I just think they are newbies to the game, making newbie mistakes.
They do not understand how long it takes for most people to fully recover from this virus. There are still folks on the first Princess ship still sick with it almost two months later.
There are probably less than 10,000 Unicorns in the whole country imho—they had no symtoms and have no symptoms—good luck finding one!
what is ‘home’? a 25yo female who’s thinking of going home probably doesn’t have a strong tie to where she’s at, support network wise. And yes, quarantine in the garage in case she got something on the way in. Pee? What any girl does, pull over, run to the bushes and squat. For some people, their 15 days IS up, and the next 4 days are extra. (in Calif for instance, ppl were starting to self-isolate on Mar 3 well before the Pence 15)
Thanks.
Ut oh...you may be in an indefinite holding pattern. :- /
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